[QuantumLeap]

I want to preface this post by saying that using ATS alone is not always a good indicator, especially this time of the year. Teams with good ATS records have been overachievers and this means they have put out a lot of energy toward covering the spread. However, the season is starting to get long so some of those teams may be getting tired out from overachieving so much.

I feel it's different with these two teams that are good ATS teams. They are both off suffering SU losses.

IPFW -7 over Denver (Summit League)
A lot of people have made a lot of money with IPFW this season. They are 17-4 ATS. They lost their last game 46-62 against Summit League foe NDSU. North Dakota State is 10-1 SU at home. This tells me that we are going to get good value with IPFW since they lost their last game so big. Their opponent today is Denver, who have gone 3-4 in their last 7 with 2 of those wins being close games.

Oakland -8 1/2 over Green Bay (Horizon League)
I layed off betting Oakland last game because they faced a decent team in Milwaukee. They lost that game 85-93 at home. This will cause the Golden Grizzlies to overachieve once again against Green Bay who won against Detroit in their last game. I like to take strong teams who have recently lost (like Oakland) against weak teams who have just won (like Green Bay). I feel I get a better line that way but that's just me.

[QuantumLeap]

Oakland out to a 13-0 lead. Most recent score is 15-3. Let's hope this continues.

[QuantumLeap]

I mentioned before how I like to fade teams that did well their last game. I missed on today: Milwaukee. I mentioned how Milwaukee beat Oakland last time around. They got up for the big game and have a let-down game today.

[QuantumLeap]

Going with another bounce-back team playing a weak team off a win.

South Dakota State -12 over South Dakota (Summit League)
SD State (NOT San Diego State) lost in Omaha their last game. They had a 5-game win streak previously and are tied for the league lead with IPFW. South Dakota won against 16-9 North Dakota State their last game. NDSU just happens to play much better at home so this wasn't a big surprise. South Dakota is 4-8 on the road and 4-8 in the conference.

Today they will be playing in Brookings, home city of of SDSU. As in the previous games, the Jackrabbits will be looking to bounce back from their loss in Omaha. This is a fierce in-state rivalry. This gives State added incentive to cover the spread.

[Calgunner23]

Thank you for the write ups, as well as the picks.

[QuantumLeap]

Thank you for the write ups, as well as the picks.

You're welcome. Thanks for the reply.

Oakland wins by 18. So Dak State wins by 17 so they both cover.

IPFW wins by 4.

2-1 on the day.

[Calgunner23]

You're welcome. Thanks for the reply.

Oakland wins by 18. So Dak State wins by 17 so they both cover.

IPFW wins by 4.

2-1 on the day.

I actually parlayed the ML with your picks, so thanks again bro. I always love these smaller school plays.

[QuantumLeap]

I actually parlayed the ML with your picks, so thanks again bro. I always love these smaller school plays.

Thanks calgunner. IPFW lead by 12 with 54 seconds left until Denver sank some late 3's. That's just NCAA BB.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I like your angle, quantum

keep up the good work

[QuantumLeap]

I like your angle, quantum

keep up the good work

Thanks Jake. How are things going?

I tried to get too cute going away from Oakland yesterday thinking they were too good to be true but with these smaller schools I think you get some games that really are too good to be true unlike the bigger schools.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

things are going well, thanks

hope all is well with you and yours

[QuantumLeap]

things are going well, thanks

hope all is well with you and yours

Doing all right Jake. Thanks for the concern.

[Calgunner23]

I took Oakland -2.5 and -135 ML I believe, love that team right now. Just took a chance with them on the road.

Anyway, keep it up QL!

[QuantumLeap]

I took Oakland -2.5 and -135 ML I believe, love that team right now. Just took a chance with them on the road.

Anyway, keep it up QL!

Nice call. I'm going to just stay with my gut with the small schools and look for trap games with the big schools.

I was looking at the early line for NDSU on Wednesday. They are 10-1 at home but they're something like 4-6 ATS at home. The line is -8 1/2 against Western Illinois. No use pushing this one. I may look at others for Wednesday.

[Calgunner23]

Nice call. I'm going to just stay with my gut with the small schools and look for trap games with the big schools.

I was looking at the early line for NDSU on Wednesday. They are 10-1 at home but they're something like 4-6 ATS at home. The line is -8 1/2 against Western Illinois. No use pushing this one. I may look at others for Wednesday.

Will look into NDSU, thanks again. Best of luck QL! Get emmm!

[Calgunner23]

Another win? Lol

[QuantumLeap]

Another win? Lol

Barely. LOL!

I didn't take NDSU though. I'm not going to pick between SDSU and IPFW. Either team could get hot. Maybe I'll look at the over.