[unde0087]

UNC comes off a beatdown of BC and Ville comes off getting trounced at home by Virginia. This game is huge for both teams as a win for UNC would put them 3 games ahead of the ACC and basically put a choke hold on the regular season championship barring a complete meltdown. For Ville it would keep its #2 place in the ACC race and close the gap with UNC to 1 game as well as earning them the important tie breaker incase they finish with the same record. Needless to say a huge game.

This is an interesting matchup as prior to league play UNC had some trip ups on the road, although the Tarheels have went 3-0 on the road in the ACC. Ville had defended it's home court until Saturday leaving them with a 3-1 home record in conference play. Although both these teams have yet to really play the meat of their ACC schedule.

I have anticipated this game for the whole week waiting to see the line, I figured UNC would be favored by a handful of points. I get that Ville had a nice winning streak going and they have been tough at home but stacking their schedule up it is pretty weak. Their tournament resume has 1 quality win to Pitt at home and that win is looking less impressive as the days pass. Ville record against teams that have spent this whole season ranked is 0-3.

At the end of the day I see the same thing playing out in this one. As I don't think Ville has enough firepower to go the distance with the Tarheels even with this being a home game for Louisville.


UNC +1

Got this early as I expect UNC will be laying points by tip time






GL, should be a good game

[FlipsideRM]

Careful. All calls going to go villes way

[unde0087]

Well its too late flip, I am committed to it pal.

[LT Profits]

I get that Ville had a nice winning streak going and they have been tough at home but stacking their schedule up it is pretty weak. Their tournament resume has 1 quality win to Pitt at home and that win is looking less impressive as the days pass. Ville record against teams that have spent this whole season ranked is 0-3 and 2 of those 3 games they were absolutely routed by MSU and Virginia.

Actually the loss to Michigan State was by just four points in a game that was tied with 10 minutes left at East Lansing. Before the Virginia debacle, the first three Louisville losses were by a grand total of 10 points.

None of that means I know if I am betting this game yet or which side even.

[jjgold]

Cards all the way

[MarcusPaige]

I mean, the real issue is basically that the Heels have been shooting for shit but still winning because they have been playing shit teams and they have 3 studs that can score down low which is a huge luxury in today's game. The Heels have not played well in their last 4-5 games and Marcus was literally 1 for his last 22 from 3 before going 3-8 against BC. Marcus is playing like a college kid that knocked up 2 different sorority girls at the same time. There is something on the kid's mind. He was like 95% from FT as a freshman now he can barely make one. Bottom line is they are not "clicking" right now and unless they start clicking they are going to have some problems against better teams on the road. I think this line is about right and the game could go either way with the way Heels are playing right now.

[unde0087]

Actually the loss to Michigan State was by just four points in a game that was tied with 10 minutes left at East Lansing. Before the Virginia debacle, the first three Louisville losses were by a grand total of 10 points.

None of that means I know if I am betting this game yet or which side even.

True, I don't know what I was looking at on the MSU game. I expect a grind out battle, these games usually are just like heels to eventually get enough distance to win. Should be a good watch

[unde0087]

I mean, the real issue is basically that the Heels have been shooting for shit but still winning because they have been playing shit teams and they have 3 studs that can score down low which is a huge luxury in today's game. The Heels have not played well in their last 4-5 games and Marcus was literally 1 for his last 22 from 3 before going 3-8 against BC. Marcus is playing like a college kid that knocked up 2 different sorority girls at the same time. There is something on the kid's mind. He was like 95% from FT as a freshman now he can barely make one. Bottom line is they are not "clicking" right now and unless they start clicking they are going to have some problems against better teams on the road. I think this line is about right and the game could go either way with the way Heels are playing right now.

Well key things is they have multiple players to score when others have struggled. UNC usually shows up for these types of games. Paige played well against them last year so I guess maybe playing Louisville in a big showcase game will bring out the best.

[FlipsideRM]

Unc lost by 10 last year at Louisville . I just have a sneaky suspicion Louisville is going to out physical unc tomorrow night and the calls will go their way at home with crowd behind them. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Louisville win. Unc will blast them anywhere else but tomorrow is a tough spot

[unde0087]

Unc lost by 10 last year at Louisville . I just have a sneaky suspicion Louisville is going to out physical unc tomorrow night and the calls will go their way at home with crowd behind them. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Louisville win. Unc will blast them anywhere else but tomorrow is a tough spot

Ya you have to figure Ville will bring the intensity after Saturday, that is for sure. That game did go to OT and if I recall UNC had an 18 point lead and the Cards went on an amazing run to get the game to OT and then dominated that extra period.

[FlipsideRM]

Ya you have to figure Ville will bring the intensity after Saturday, that is for sure. That game did go to OT and if I recall UNC had an 18 point lead and the Cards went on an amazing run to get the game to OT and then dominated that extra period.

yep, Lol I actually had a bet on Louisville that game and got extremely lucky with that come back. After seeing that game i absolutely hammered unc in the acc tourney.

[smitch124]

Virginia played a great game against Louisville on Saturday. I wouldn't read TOO much into it going forward. But, you really have to hold your nose to bet the Cardinals after that debacle though.

[jjgold]

Virginia played a great game against Louisville on Saturday. I wouldn't read TOO much into it going forward. But, you really have to hold your nose to bet the Cardinals after that debacle though.

YEs...nobody realizes this

[unde0087]

JJ good luck with that Ville pick, really hope it works out for ya

[DOM_Toretto]

louisville should be able to make tweaks and adjustments based on what they just played against - both Virginia and UNC are top 5 in offensive efficiency. However, UNC's defense is pretty bad.

Was Kansas the better team going into last Monday's game? Yes... Did it mean they won - no.

UNC is the better team, but it's a road conf game in February... Wouldn't be surprised to see the cards win.

[astro61200]

Homer pick: Cards by 7

[TheMoneyShot]

Haven't seen one thread on Louisville yet. Scary.

[unde0087]

louisville should be able to make tweaks and adjustments based on what they just played against - both Virginia and UNC are top 5 in offensive efficiency. However, UNC's defense is pretty bad.

Was Kansas the better team going into last Monday's game? Yes... Did it mean they won - no.

UNC is the better team, but it's a road conf game in February... Wouldn't be surprised to see the cards win.

Nothing should suprise anyone this season with what has gone down thus far. I merely am pointing out that UNC isn't just the most talented top to bottom they have a lineup full of battle tested top players. If I can get plus points, no matter who or where, it's a play.

I remember many people doubting flip and myself when UNC went to FSU. Oh FSU has better guards and UNC blows on the road and the Heels proceeded to post a 100+ going away. Now that is not to compare FSU to the Cards as obviously they play 2 different styles but you get the point. For a team that about 90% of their lines start damn near double digits, it's pretty easy to pull the trigger on UNC getting a point on the road to a team that has beaten no one in the same league as Carolina. Doesn't mean I think it's a lock and that there is zero chance of a tar heel upset but come on man. There isn't one game Ville has played this season you can point at and say yep they can handle the Tarheels attack, thus I take the point and wait to see if they can prove me wrong.

[unde0087]

Haven't seen one thread on Louisville yet. Scary.

Louisvillekid heavy on them, as expected, the only person I have seen thus far

[unde0087]

KVB, check in pal, I need a WWF post in this thread

[chico2663]

growing up 90 miles from louiseville (in the nati) I have been following since 1970.I can't even tell you the last ime that u of l lost back to back home games. If n.c had a shot that line would be -4. take the points and the live dog. I can see u of l winning by double digits. I believe the last time that they lost back to back home games was 1985-1986. Ask louivillekid he maybe able to tell you.

[LT Profits]

growing up 90 miles from louiseville (in the nati) I have been following since 1970.I can't even tell you the last ime that u of l lost back to back home games. If n.c had a shot that line would be -4. take the points and the live dog. I can see u of l winning by double digits. I believe the last time that they lost back to back home games was 1985-1986. Ask louivillekid he maybe able to tell you.

2009, both vs. supposedly inferior non-conference teams as double-digit favorites (Charlotte, Western Carolina).

[TPowell]

This is a very bad matchup for us. Our transition defense is awful and has been all year. We do guard the paint really well though. If UNC isn't making jump shots, we could have a chance in this game.

[MarcusPaige]

louisville should be able to make tweaks and adjustments based on what they just played against - both Virginia and UNC are top 5 in offensive efficiency. However, UNC's defense is pretty bad.

Was Kansas the better team going into last Monday's game? Yes... Did it mean they won - no.

UNC is the better team, but it's a road conf game in February... Wouldn't be surprised to see the cards win.

UNC is 51 out of 351 teams in defensive efficiency. You can't really look at PPG on a team where the average offensive possession only lasts 10 seconds because it obviously results in the opponent getting twice as many possessions/opportunities to score. Kind of like people saying Virginia has a great defense because they give up 61 points a game. Well, no shit, they hold the ball until 5 seconds on the shot clock every possession, but they are only ranked 80 in defensive efficiency despite being ranked 5th in scoring defense.

[unde0087]

This is a very bad matchup for us. Our transition defense is awful and has been all year. We do guard the paint really well though. If UNC isn't making jump shots, we could have a chance in this game.

Nice to see you Powell, I remember good heated debates with you back in 08 and 09. Hope all is well

[texhooper]

Powell talking me off the ledge here.

[JBiddyJ23]

UNC = Easy Winner!!

[unde0087]

UNC = Easy Winner!!

Jbiby, let's hope so, I expect a win but let's not too crazy just yet

[TPowell]

The way we've been ****** by the officials this year, I can't see Chinanu staying on the floor long enough to negate Brice Johnson which is a big problem.

[wufpakman21]

UNC has had the advantage of playing the easiest ACC schedule, by far, to date (thank you John Swofford). Best win was at Syracuse. They struggled at Tech, struggled with Clemson at home and even struggled with my Pack for 35 minutes until we finally just couldn't throw it in the ocean. UNC's key is Marcus Paige, and I don't see him having a big game because he'll likely be matched up against 6-6 Damien Lee (big size advantage) and Paige doesn't usually play well against bigger players. (See Cody Martin NC State) UNC lives off of second chance points and rebounding. But Louisville has enough bigs to at least combat that. This game will be just as close as the spread. Could go either way. If I had to pick it would be with the home team coming off an embarrassing loss.

[astro61200]

The key to the game, in my opinion, will be 3 point defense. UNC shoots 31% from 3 and UofL holds opponents to 31% while, on the flip side, UofL shoots 37% from deep and UNC allows teams to shoot 37%.

If Mathiang was healthy I think UofL wins by 8 or 9, if not more. Without him, I think they win by 5 or 6, the difference increasing with late FTs

[MarcusPaige]

UNC has had the advantage of playing the easiest ACC schedule, by far, to date (thank you John Swofford). Best win was at Syracuse. They struggled at Tech, struggled with Clemson at home and even struggled with my Pack for 35 minutes until we finally just couldn't throw it in the ocean. UNC's key is Marcus Paige, and I don't see him having a big game because he'll likely be matched up against 6-6 Damien Lee (big size advantage) and Paige doesn't usually play well against bigger players. (See Cody Martin NC State) UNC lives off of second chance points and rebounding. But Louisville has enough bigs to at least combat that. This game will be just as close as the spread. Could go either way. If I had to pick it would be with the home team coming off an embarrassing loss.

Struggling to 19-2 and undefeated in the conference is what UNC does. Bitching about UNC is what NC State does.

[jjgold]

[bndet99]

Wilbon likes Louisville in a bounce back. Does his opinion matter?

[unde0087]

See you in hell JJ