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5 unit wager tonight in NCAA hoops. Ole Miss +1
Ole miss is 12-1 all time at home vs South Carolina, including winners of 4 straight vs them there. They are also 7-1 on the season at home before their loss Florida.
Ive been waiting for games to fade USC including last week when I played Alabama +4 vs them. This is another spot to bet against them. Ole miss is no joke at home and moody should drop 30 minimum vs this squad.
Good luck
Here we go.........................
GO
no saiz for a team that really lacks depth already. agreed before i saw he was out but think now it a pass considering how many fouls scary draws, their overall style that can test a teams depth, and how much deeper ol piss was prior to this season.. gl though
Moody or bust.
And Saiz is out.
Tough spot for Ole Miss
USC the most overrated team in the country playing at ole miss where they've been stellar. The line says it all once again. Squares going to pound the Fuk out of the ranked 16-1 USC team on the road with ole miss not having their best rebounder. Saiz won't matter, it's not like USC is a world beater down low anyway
Absolute auto fade and I don't even need to watch just collect
i cashed your colorado ticket
im gonna think on this one
You're cuteOriginally Posted by mikefan1034
Hit it, two time
initially it not necessarily about the rebounds for me, it about the fact they lacking bodies down low and of the few they have all commit sizable number of fouls, one a soph who hasnt been playing many minutes in conf. far more the battle of attrition that would concern me..
again i dont disagree with scary being overrated. i dont care what "squares" are pounding, again i imagine you right they will most likely side with scary not that it matters a whole lot.
i dunno if i would call what ol miss has done at home as being stellar? they basically have beaten teams that should get beat and lost to the 1 "good" team who has visited.
far as the line wouldnt scary being small dogs be more telling? hell they might close as such but that just speaks to all the "sharps" of this generation hitting the ol piss side and why "squares pounding whoever" doesnt mean a whole lot to me these days.
as you can see i agree with a lot of your reasoning and certainly wouldnt be surprised if rebs took home the cash for you. all im saying is the loss up front weakens them in a way i dont like in this matchup and to me 5x a unusually large play (maybe it isnt to you i do not know?) and in a spot i think is considerably weaker w/o saiz who has logged large minutes in every game that can be considered impressive they have played at home.. either way gl, easy pass for me so hope you cash..
Never understood why people take the last 10 games records into account when capping college games. Teams are completely different.
Home court is the most important aspect there is in college basketball. Can turn a crappy team into a good team. Trends are everything, check West Virginia at home vs Kansas. They never lose to Kansas there, same here with ole miss
the big12 is the most home court eccentric league by a long shot and it matters far more in that conf.. obviously home court makes a difference but citing what teams (especially home dogs do) in the big12 isnt altogether relevant here...
same line I won on with Colorado +1 at home vs Oregon. Public hammers the "supposed better" team not factoring in how much home court in conference means. Not sure how this line will move, Colorado closed as a favorite as I predicted but I don't think it matters here. Ole miss by 6+ imo
Disagree whole heartedly. Home court matters in any conference, arguing which comferences home court "matters more" is foolish and I don't have much time to argue today.
Good luck either way. I have a winner here, whether you choose to take it or not is on you
pretty interesting kenpom article about home court if interested..
Road teams are winning more often in college, too
by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, February 8, 2015
There has been recent discussion over at ESPN.com regarding the decline in home court advantage in the NBA. First, there was this piece by Tom Haberstroh, inspired by Steve Ilardi, and then additional analysis by Haberstroh and Kevin Pelton.
It turns out the same effect exists at the college level. Here’s the evolution of home winning percentage (conference games only) since the 2000 season:
The trend is unmistakable: Home teams are winning fewer games than they did 15 years ago. About 2.5 percent worth in absolute terms. This mimics what’s happening in the NBA and one can imagine that an analysis going back farther would show that, as with the professional level, this trend extends farther back in time. It’s interesting that nobody, to my knowledge, has offered a theory that it’s easier to win on the road than it used to me and yet it’s clearly happening. Then again, if we can’t see home court advantage in an individual game, it’s not surprising we wouldn’t notice how it changes over time.
Through Sunday’s games, home teams in conference play have gone 1114-753 for a winning percentage of 59.7. This should rebound a bit, but with less than a month left in the regular season it’s possible that figure will finish below 60 percent for the first time in a long time. (Probably ever, realistically, but it’s not something I have the data to prove at the current time.)
It’s a challenge to determine what might be causing the changes, and Haberstroh offered his own theories which you should read for yourself, but I think there are two primary sources for the college trend.
First, travel has gradually become easier across the college game. As athletic budgets continue to outpace inflation with the seemingly endless stream of TV money coming into the sport, programs have been able to upgrade their mode of transit accordingly. Teams that previously bussed everywhere are taking more flights. And teams that used to depend on commercial flights are taking more charters.
Across the college hoops universe, this is something that would steadily improve over time, fitting with the evolution of the trend we see. It is not difficult to find tales of how chartering makes it easier to battle the road. There’s this piece about Butler, or this one from Arizona, or this from Baylor. And there’s this one with Nebraska head coach Tim Miles comparing the charter life at Nebraska to the commercial flights that were common at Colorado State.
It’s unanimous: Traveling by charter is preferred to traveling commercial. (I wouldn’t know.) Even though this is one of those things that can’t be measured, it’s hard to argue that there’s not some advantage to be gained as travel to road games becomes less time-consuming.
The other factor that appears to be playing a role in reducing home-court advantage is the decreasing pace of play. Fewer possessions could mean fewer chances for the home team to exert its advantage. Data from the past 15 seasons shows a relationship between pace and home court winning percentage.
Each dot represents the average of 1500-2000 games at the pace indicated and this data is normalized within each season, theoretically allowing us to see whether the long term trend of pace and home-court advantage is related or coincidental. It appears to be related. For every change of five possessions in pace, there’s a change of about 1.6 percent in home court winning percentage. That explains a little over half of the change observed in the past decade and a half.
Haberstroh offered a few other possibilities including the decreasing enthusiasm of home crowds and fairer officiating. The interesting thing about the trends in NBA home-court advantage is that it seems to follow the evolution in the game’s pace as well. The massive decline in home-court advantage in the mid-’90s coincided with the pace crash that occurred in that era, as well. And, at least until this season, the NBA’s home court winning percentage was fairly stable over the past two decades as pace stabilized.
Pace and travel aren’t the only two factors that affect home court advantage. Presumably, crowd size and officiating plays a role. And there’s a consistently higher home court advantage for teams that play at altitude. However, pace and travel are things that have been changing over time, and thus are candidates to explain the increasing success of road teams. But this is a complicated issue with many avenues of future research.
it comical what you have attempted to become.. gl on your internet fame kid..
Good luck to you too. Jealousy wreaks heavy here. Peeeeee eweeee
very jealous! nothing would make my day like boldly telling ppl i can predict the unpredictable with bold retarded ass statements in a effort to be popular..
or just maybe i hope anyone foolish enough to see you win a few games doesnt go betting 5x (what up with the tout units? why not just raise your fukkin unit?) on a game that has little to no edge after the injury you feel like ignoring for sake of PT fame..
we both been around here, i seen your bs plays all nfl and in plenty of seasons past before you decided on being the new broke dick landers.. gl kid, hope it comes with the life you always dreamed of (one im obviously super jealous of). more importantly gl to the ppl you cashed a few tickets for and the many more you will undoubtedly make you hate them (i wont be one)..man do i hate when PT crap blends in with sub-forum goodness.
Yeah. Didn't read.
Anyway
wasnt meant for you so perfect..
Move along now pal. Fuks your deal? Angry little man
Flip these 5 or 6 unit plays went from being few and far between to becoming several a week. I think the only thing 2dabank was trying to get at was make sure your feet stay on the ground. It's too easy to get out of control in this game. Keep up the good work.
super little and oh so angry! or on the contrary home bored and having fun with a needy little man on the interweb..
1-2 a week. The funny thing is, I probably make less plays than most any ncaabb capper on here. I just take shit cuz I make threads and isolate each one big.
I started my spreadsheet before the season, those are all my rea $ bets. I've made 91 bets since the season started. Some people make that in a week, plus the odds makers are throwing me home runs on these cake lines lately.
glad I can appease you. Are you being cute too?
you should be!
not only are you on the brink of a legendary as you "hit cup cakes out of the park" season but also entertaining a angry little man as you crush the books and line the pockets of the grateful and ungrateful alike!
you actually pull some pussy today and id say you a shoe in for heaven baby! keep up the good work! ill never be angry at you or troll the losers like your fans!
Hey
your momma
Oh snap
Hey come here little boy, get in my van I have candy.
im sure ive taken candy from tougher mf'ers.
nose candy lets hope
I like
#1) Sport : NCAA Basketball
Selection : Mississippi 1/19/2016 4:00PM - (PST) Spread -2 +121 for Game
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