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Kenpom predictions and stats for todays games.
Maybe this will help people, maybe it won't. BOL
Rk Game Prediction Time (ET) Location Venue Thrill
Score1 7 Gonzaga vs. 6 Duke NCAA Duke 75-74 (54%) 5:05 pm Houston, TX NRG Stadium 83.3 2 15 Michigan St. vs. 16 Louisville NCAA Michigan St. 65-64 (51%) 2:20 pm Syracuse, NY Carrier Dome 73.1
Last edited by magsmeplease; 03-29-15 at 10:36 AM.
Replying to my own thread, here are some things that stand out to me...
Both teams shoot at a similar clip, but Gonzaga appears better at limiting their opponents fieldgoal % than Duke is.
Neither team is particularly good at turning the other team over.
Duke though they are smaller seem to have the advantage when it comes to rebounding, which should lead to +Possessions.
Neither team plays great 3 point defense. (Though will it matter in the dome?)
Both teams are similar in the amount of time they give to their benches.
Gonzaga is much more experienced than Duke.
Gonzaga has more length than Duke.
Michigan vs. Louisville
These Ds like to slow the other team down, this game could be played very slow.
Michigan state has a huge advantage for FG%
Louisville is good at turning their opponents over, Mich St. is not.
Louisville gives up Off Rebounds and Mich St. is good at getting them. +Possessions
Louisville is abysmal at shooting from 3.
Mich St is more experienced, Louisville is a little longer.
Some of Gonzaga's opponents field goal percentage can surely be attributed to the strength of (or lack of) schedule, wouldn't you think?Other than the dome altered 38% by UCLA friday, they've allowed over 50% shooting during the tournament.I do think they have a better overall offense than Duke, much more efficient. I expect this to a close game, and the Zags experience and execution will be the difference.Originally Posted by magsmeplease
I think it depends what you are attributing to better or worse schedule. Gonzaga still has to make the shots. It's not like they were playing incompetent basketball teams. I think you could make that argument more effectively if the numbers were greatly skewed.
Here are the top 6 teams in terms of field goal % from 2.
Team Conf 3P% 2P% FT% Blk% Stl% A% 3PA% Notre Dame 3 ACC 39.0 20 58.2 1 74.2 29 7.2 23 8.0 41 54.9 140 37.6 83 Gonzaga 2 WCC 40.3 7 57.2 2 68.9 191 6.5 7 8.4 73 57.5 79 32.1 234 Duke 1 ACC 38.9 25 56.6 3 69.1 181 8.5 83 8.7 96 54.6 146 34.0 172 Belmont 15 OVC 37.7 48 56.3 4 69.2 178 12.3 328 9.7 219 58.5 63 47.8 5 Denver Sum 38.0 39 55.5 5 76.6 10 8.5 80 8.8 117 69.6 1 43.0 21 Stephen F. Austin 12 Slnd 37.3 55 55.4 6 73.4 43 10.2 221 8.6 91 64.7 5 36.6 107 Wisconsin 1 B10 36.4 79 55.2 7 76.4 12 5.9 3 6.8 3 49.8 243 37.5 88
I would tend to say over 38 games that they've played enough high level competition and defense to even out the bottom of the WCC (and really that's what we are talking about here)
This will be a track meet, it'll be close. I honestly am not touching the point spread on this game (this reeks like a game that officials will have a HUGE impact on the final outcome, I am eying the over/under though.
Top teams in terms of defending 2 pointers.
Team Conf 3P% 2P% FT% Blk% Stl% A% 3PA% Texas 11 B12 34.7 195 37.7 1 66.3 42 20.0 1 5.9 347 50.6 102 30.8 77 Kentucky 1 SEC 26.7 1 38.8 2 65.5 22 18.3 2 10.1 106 40.0 1 30.4 69 Virginia 2 ACC 30.8 24 40.1 3 64.6 10 13.3 35 9.3 175 49.4 70 36.6 252 North Carolina Central MEAC 29.1 4 41.3 4 67.9 99 11.0 98 9.5 159 46.8 27 34.5 180 Utah 5 P12 31.2 36 41.4 5 68.2 111 13.6 29 9.3 172 43.2 6 29.3 31 Quinnipiac MAAC 35.1 212 41.9 6 68.8 142 14.0 23 5.2 351 51.2 121 30.8 76 UNLV MWC 35.1 215 42.0 7 66.5 45 16.1 6 8.4 260 51.9 149 30.5 70
I should have bold and underlined why I responded. I agree whole heartedly with what you are saying. I did make the point that I thought Gonzaga had the more efficient offense. I just think that defensively they have had less challenges than Duke, thus making the defensive fg% a mute point in my mind. I not going to bash the Zags schedule. They've more than proved themselves this year, playing even with Arizona at Arizona, beating St. John's at MSG, basically a home game for the Johnnies, beat SMU and UCLA as well. I'll stay with my pick of Gonzaga. More experience, better execution offensively. It should be a fun game to watch.
Ah! I misread your post.
I see what you are saying, but the Zags did face some teams with pretty good field goal shooting. But it's tough to tell for sure. The margin on this game is really thin. With Duke now only at -2, I think the play is Zags ML or nothing.
I'm trying to figure out right now if the second game in a domed stadium usually marks an increase in shooting percentage or if it's going to be abysmal again.
Good analysis here. I have the Zags +2.5, but agree that this should be a battle. Not a game to load up on.....not that you should ever do that.
Some funky movement with the O/U makes me start to believe that bookies feel shooting will be an issue.
56% of the public is on the over yet the total is dropping a lot of places. Might be the bet to make if you can get under 145.
Pretty close to accurate for the Mich St. - Louisville game.
No shit, woulda hit an exacta if that Ville FT that clanked off the rim missed.
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