1. #1
    KVB
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    Teach a Man to Fish: UCLA/ Gonzaga OVER 144

    Those bettors who beat the point spread on a consistent basis almost all have one thing in common; they create their own line and then compare it with the line being offered. I believe that if you can also understand why the line being offered both opens where it does and moves to where it ultimately rests it will help find you more winners and even save you from some losers.

    For college basketball totals, I have learned to make many different lines. Each line represents a different level of sophistication so I can make judgements on not only the opening line, but the line movement as well.

    Let’s take UCLA vs. Gonzaga for example. A few oddsmakers opened with a total of 148.5. This line was quickly bought down to as low as 143.5 before settling at 144 where the rest of the world opened their lines. What happened here? Why was the world comfortable at 144? Why did some books stick their neck out with early line of 148.5?

    Anyone can take the season average offense and defense scoring for these two teams, add them all up, divide by two, and viola you have a crude, basic total of about 140 points. No wonder why the line was dropping, it was way too high; hurry, buy the under. Not so fast. UCLA is not the same team it was earlier in the season and both teams have been lighting it up as of late. Run that quick math on the most recent, say, four or five games and you get upwards of 152 points. Obviously both teams’ recent performance is not only going to affect public opinion, but also the line.

    Seasoned bettors have learned to apply certain weighted combinations of past and recent performance to develop better performing, or sharper, total lines. Just before I apply a final tweak to arrive at my most sophisticated total number for basketball games, I come to a fairly sophisticated base number. For UCLA versus Gonzaga that base number is 143.9. It is common for this level of my total line to very close to the opening lines. I can see why the world sits at 144 and if my final number were 143.9, I’d have to pass on the game. This total appears very sharp and some decent total handicappers may sit on the sidelines here.

    That would be a mistake. Let’s throw some common sense in the mix. When two higher scoring teams like UCLA and Gonzaga matchup they tend to run up the score leading to higher than average total scores. So we have two hot, high scoring teams whose defenses have also been giving up more points of late; we know we need to add points to 143.9, but how many?

    I have developed what has become a non-linear scale that gives a good answer. With the adjustment, my spreadsheet tells me to add a whopping twenty points for a total of over 163. Perhaps some books knew there would be pressure on the over side of things and tried to compensate with a 148.5 opener. Perhaps some fairly sophisticated money came in at the lower limits and settled at 144 easing the minds of the other houses.

    These houses should beware. According to the numbers above, expect some degree of sharper game day money to come in on the over. Factor in what the public has seen recently from both UCLA and Gonzaga, and there is likely to be upward movement in the line. As such, get while you can OVER 144 for the sweet sixteen matchup between UCLA and Gonzaga. Even though I have an adjusted prediction of 163 points, and I do not expect the line to move 5 full points, I would not buy past 148.5 points. While I have a few good ideas, I am not confident in why the early line was chosen by certain books and that leads to some skepticism.

    So there you have it. I not only fed you a fish, but hopefully some of you learned a little about how to catch your own.


  2. #2
    jjgold
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    Alford has to hit his shots or this game will not go over

  3. #3
    James Marques
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    Too close for me, I have it right on the number. Best of luck though.
    Screenshot_2015-03-27-09-54-54.jpg

  4. #4
    boomer62
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Those bettors who beat the point spread on a consistent basis almost all have one thing in common; they create their own line and then compare it with the line being offered. I believe that if you can also understand why the line being offered both opens where it does and moves to where it ultimately rests it will help find you more winners and even save you from some losers.

    For college basketball totals, I have learned to make many different lines. Each line represents a different level of sophistication so I can make judgements on not only the opening line, but the line movement as well.

    Let’s take UCLA vs. Gonzaga for example. A few oddsmakers opened with a total of 148.5. This line was quickly bought down to as low as 143.5 before settling at 144 where the rest of the world opened their lines. What happened here? Why was the world comfortable at 144? Why did some books stick their neck out with early line of 148.5?

    Anyone can take the season average offense and defense scoring for these two teams, add them all up, divide by two, and viola you have a crude, basic total of about 140 points. No wonder why the line was dropping, it was way too high; hurry, buy the under. Not so fast. UCLA is not the same team it was earlier in the season and both teams have been lighting it up as of late. Run that quick math on the most recent, say, four or five games and you get upwards of 152 points. Obviously both teams’ recent performance is not only going to affect public opinion, but also the line.

    Seasoned bettors have learned to apply certain weighted combinations of past and recent performance to develop better performing, or sharper, total lines. Just before I apply a final tweak to arrive at my most sophisticated total number for basketball games, I come to a fairly sophisticated base number. For UCLA versus Gonzaga that base number is 143.9. It is common for this level of my total line to very close to the opening lines. I can see why the world sits at 144 and if my final number were 143.9, I’d have to pass on the game. This total appears very sharp and some decent total handicappers may sit on the sidelines here.

    That would be a mistake. Let’s throw some common sense in the mix. When two higher scoring teams like UCLA and Gonzaga matchup they tend to run up the score leading to higher than average total scores. So we have two hot, high scoring teams whose defenses have also been giving up more points of late; we know we need to add points to 143.9, but how many?

    I have developed what has become a non-linear scale that gives a good answer. With the adjustment, my spreadsheet tells me to add a whopping twenty points for a total of over 163. Perhaps some books knew there would be pressure on the over side of things and tried to compensate with a 148.5 opener. Perhaps some fairly sophisticated money came in at the lower limits and settled at 144 easing the minds of the other houses.

    These houses should beware. According to the numbers above, expect some degree of sharper game day money to come in on the over. Factor in what the public has seen recently from both UCLA and Gonzaga, and there is likely to be upward movement in the line. As such, get while you can OVER 144 for the sweet sixteen matchup between UCLA and Gonzaga. Even though I have an adjusted prediction of 163 points, and I do not expect the line to move 5 full points, I would not buy past 148.5 points. While I have a few good ideas, I am not confident in why the early line was chosen by certain books and that leads to some skepticism.

    So there you have it. I not only fed you a fish, but hopefully some of you learned a little about how to catch your own.

    Just want to acknowledge you and I agree with you and love your insight! This should be more prevalent here in this forum instead of the mindless posts by JJ's, Bears, etc (or sorry, one in the same) and all the shilling going on.
    I agree with everything you said. All handicapping BEGINS with making your own line as a starting point and comparing it to the oddsmakers and then see were it settles and what positions the books take. I'm pretty good at football and making a profit BUT I learned in BB to much emphasis and control on the referees and how they call the game. Also, more unknown variables of what pace will be played and some teams have off night shooting,etc. BUT, so many bad beats in hoops due to how the refs call the game. I've made 5 wagers this whole tourney and am 4-1. Have no interest and learned to just spot play. I like Utah and Oaklahoma today. Did nothing yesterday. Thanks for sharing KVB, best of luck to you!
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: blueghost, and smokenjoke

  5. #5
    jjgold
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    throw all insight out even though it looks good

    its all random and when you realize that you will become a better bettor

    Get the best/weak number regardless of who is playing, who is injured what league it is

    They are the only better that win long term

  6. #6
    newguy
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    One of the more well thought out posts I've seen on here in a while. Great post. Hope you hit it but either way I love seeing this kind of stuff on here!!
    Points Awarded:

    smokenjoke gave newguy 3 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  7. #7
    boomer62
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    throw all insight out even though it looks good

    its all random and when you realize that you will become a better bettor

    Get the best/weak number regardless of who is playing, who is injured what league it is

    They are the only better that win long term
    YOU ARE A FUKING CLOWN AND THE REASON THEIR IS MINDLESS AND CHILDISH POSTS and THREADS here. Just because you are illiterate and Bear as well that you have NOTHING OF VALUE TO CONTRIBUTE stay the penetrate out of any intelligent discussions going on EBE

  8. #8
    jjgold
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    watch the games and see how point spread covers are determined

    I am the brightest mind here

    Its why everyone loses because they handicap

    If everyone loses why copy what they do

  9. #9
    boomer62
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    watch the games and see how point spread covers are determined

    I am the brightest mind here

    Its why everyone loses because they handicap

    If everyone loses why copy what they do
    You are the most SIMPLE MINDED and look who is talking about handicapping and losing. You just DON'T GET IT! You can win if you have self control and not a DEGENERATE, which most on here are. Thats why you are here, you make your money off of others to feed your habit! BAD KHARMA! Try serving others and giving and more will come back to you. Law of RECPROCITY. WORK on your BEING, YOUR SPIRIT and become more ENLIGHTENED and ATTRACT more goodness and desires into your life. ALSO, learn HUMILITY, because you are far from THE BRIGHTEST! You are a legend in your own mind and most think you are an IDIOT. SBR should teach you,Bear,Ebe, etc how to write more intelligently and upgrade your vocabulary. A mind is a terrible thing to WASTE! I'm done with my lesson today. In one ear and out the other, AIRHEAD. Lol

  10. #10
    James Marques
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  11. #11
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    like I said in the other thread KVB, interesting and entertaining write up... my friend
    by the way, I apologize for JJgold's behavior in this thread, going to delete his last 20 posts
    and take his NHL moderation position and give it to someone
    who has worn a pair of ice skates at least once in their life

    Points Awarded:

    boomer62 gave Fidel_CashFlow 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    smokenjoke gave Fidel_CashFlow 3 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  12. #12
    zephyr
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    In Catch 22, the "catch" was that you had to be crazy to be successful at war, but if you were crazy you were sent home. It's like that. Careful thinking this is a rational game ... one that you can "figure out." That might just be your mind playing tricks on you. This is kids running around throwing a ball in a bucket. They'd be the first to tell you that they really have no idea what makes for a good day shooting, and what makes for a bad day shooting. I understand where the Coach is coming from. Crazy wisdom there. But good luck and have a good weekend. Over might well hit. But that's a pretty big number. Carry on.

  13. #13
    KVB
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    It seems like a number of offshore sites had a slight uptick and are holding at 144 or 144.5. My sources show Las Vegas offering 145 in many places now. Still good value here.

    Good Luck


  14. #14
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by James Marques View Post
    Too close for me, I have it right on the number. Best of luck though.
    Screenshot_2015-03-27-09-54-54.jpg
    Hey Marques, very sharp sir. It seems there are multiple ways to get 143.9. Very sharp.

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I can see why the world sits at 144 and if my final number were 143.9, I’d have to pass on the game. This total appears very sharp and some decent total handicappers may sit on the sidelines here.

    That would be a mistake. Let’s throw some common sense in the mix. When two higher scoring teams like UCLA and Gonzaga matchup they tend to run up the score leading to higher than average total scores.
    The same is true for low scoring teams playing each other...there tends to be lower scores. Are you taking measures to account for that underlying basketball tendency?

    Either way, stay sharp Marques.


  15. #15
    sjm5122
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    4 minutes without a point, the over is dead

  16. #16
    bob6199
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    Never bet an over when a game is in a football stadium, Under is always the way to go when they play on football stadiums.

  17. #17
    existential
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    NEVER bet overs on games held in a football stadium.. the shooting distance perspective is very hard to adjust for

  18. #18
    BIGDAY
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    Going to need more fish...


  19. #19
    Doughboy22
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    Nice write up. Pick looks bad

  20. #20
    robbeduagain
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    No baskets in over six minutes. Wow. I liked your observations, but this had no chance now

  21. #21
    Calgunner23
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    Quote Originally Posted by bob6199 View Post
    Never bet an over when a game is in a football stadium, Under is always the way to go when they play on football stadiums.
    Agree with Bob more often than not. Eyes will play tricks on you.

  22. #22
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by boomer62 View Post
    Just want to acknowledge you and I agree with you and love your insight! This should be more prevalent here in this forum instead of the mindless posts by JJ's, Bears, etc (or sorry, one in the same) and all the shilling going on.
    I agree with everything you said. All handicapping BEGINS with making your own line as a starting point and comparing it to the oddsmakers and then see were it settles and what positions the books take. I'm pretty good at football and making a profit BUT I learned in BB to much emphasis and control on the referees and how they call the game. Also, more unknown variables of what pace will be played and some teams have off night shooting,etc. BUT, so many bad beats in hoops due to how the refs call the game. I've made 5 wagers this whole tourney and am 4-1. Have no interest and learned to just spot play. I like Utah and Oaklahoma today. Did nothing yesterday. Thanks for sharing KVB, best of luck to you!

    Thanks Boomer. As far as basketball goes, the refs are a part of every game, always have been. Don’t let the grove of trees that make up handicapping a game get in the way of you seeing the forest.

    Keep an eye on the big picture.


  23. #23
    bob6199
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    Quote Originally Posted by Calgunner23 View Post
    Agree with Bob more often than not. Eyes will play tricks on you.
    i had no idea this was in a football arena, i don't bet totals, but Gonzaga definitely has an advantage in this arena. Duke should have an advantage as well by having the better inside game.

  24. #24
    letsgo
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    The two teams did score almost 100 in the 2nd half of their first game.

  25. #25
    jjgold
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    Looks like a tough arena to score have no idea how this will go over

  26. #26
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by zephyr View Post
    Careful thinking this is a rational game ... one that you can "figure out." That might just be your mind playing tricks on you. This is kids running around throwing a ball in a bucket. They'd be the first to tell you that they really have no idea what makes for a good day shooting, and what makes for a bad day shooting. I understand where the Coach is coming from. Crazy wisdom there. But good luck and have a good weekend. Over might well hit. But that's a pretty big number. Carry on.
    Hilarious. I place risk in the sports betting marketplace. I no more care about the “group of kids putting a ball in a bucket” in this tournament than a hedge fund manager cares about the holiday retail workers and their ability to upsell on the retail floor. I will gladly explain further if you need so.

    It really doesn't matter what makes up a good day of shooting and a bad day in this situation. I have an edge, right here, right now, in the today’s round of this year’s tournament.

    Resigning the game to just a bunch of randomness and haphazard group of unpredictable kids is reserved for losing bettors...which may explain why you can see where late night shift trolling JJ is coming from.

    We long term winners have a far deeper and far better understanding of the game.


  27. #27
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Going to need more fish...



    Was thinking the same thing. Plenty of basketball left here. I see books dealing a second half total of 76. I have a shot at getting a chance to get a shot. Throw in OT possibilities (which the line is trying to do, lol) and there you go...

    Seriously though, we've all seen bigger comebacks in much less time, whether on a total or side. Here's to it!


  28. #28
    existential
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Hilarious. I place risk in the sports betting marketplace. I no more care about the “group of kids putting a ball in a bucket” in this tournament than a hedge fund manager cares about the holiday retail workers and their ability to upsell on the retail floor. I will gladly explain further if you need so.

    It really doesn't matter what makes up a good day of shooting and a bad day in this situation. I have an edge, right here, right now, in the today’s round of this year’s tournament.

    Resigning the game to just a bunch of randomness and haphazard group of unpredictable kids is reserved for losing bettors...which may explain why you can see where late night shift trolling JJ is coming from.

    We long term winners have a far deeper and far better understanding of the game.

    No. No you do not. What's most scary is that you think you do.

  29. #29
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by existential View Post
    No. No you do not. What's most scary is that you think you do.
    I have no reason to believe my edge in this environment was perceived. I have plenty of evidenced to verify it was real. If given the same opportunity, I would do nothing different.

    This is the sign of a long term winner. Using the result of one game to assess the validity of the opinion against the market is a true sign of inexperienced handicapper, or one with no real handicapping experience at all.



  30. #30
    Smoke
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    Did he win?

  31. #31
    KVB
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    Not this time Smoke, not this time.

  32. #32
    existential
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I have no reason to believe my edge in this environment was perceived. I have plenty of evidenced to verify it was real. If given the same opportunity, I would do nothing different.

    This is the sign of a long term winner. Using the result of one game to assess the validity of the opinion against the market is a true sign of inexperienced handicapper, or one with no real handicapping experience at all.


    So without writing another essay filled with esoteric and condescending language, what was your specific edge and evidence of it?

    The opener and immediate subsequent line movement provided the seasoned market reader with all the evidence he needed to know. The market collapsed on 148.5 and a 5 pt drop ensued. That was sharp money that moved that line. The fact that you couldn't decipher that or simply chose to ignore it, shows very poorly on your handicap.

  33. #33
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by existential View Post
    So without writing another essay filled with esoteric and condescending language, what was your specific edge and evidence of it?

    The opener and immediate subsequent line movement provided the seasoned market reader with all the evidence he needed to know. The market collapsed on 148.5 and a 5 pt drop ensued. That was sharp money that moved that line. The fact that you couldn't decipher that or simply chose to ignore it, shows very poorly on your handicap.
    I acknowledge more than once in this thread that a level of sophisticated or "sharp" money sent that line to 144 points. I also acknowledge that early limits were likely hit with that sharp money.

    I considered 144 points a pretty sharp line, by most standards. I wrote that. I even give Marques credit for getting there.

    So you repeat my position and credit any seasoned market reader with the same position. I guess thank you.

    Don't troll, read and comprehend instead.

  34. #34
    STAX
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I acknowledge more than once in this thread that a level of sophisticated or "sharp" money sent that line to 144 points. I also acknowledge that early limits were likely hit with that sharp money.

    I considered 144 points a pretty sharp line, by most standards. I wrote that. I even give Marques credit for getting there.

    So you repeat my position and credit any seasoned market reader with the same position. I guess thank you.

    Don't troll, read and comprehend instead.
    dude is the biggest troll on site... none of his posts are worth a shiit... best just ignoring... good luck KVB and good OP

  35. #35
    Soxsfan9
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    The NCAA needs to stop playing these games in huge arenas where the sight line sucks balls and no one can shoot!

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