[frogsrangers]

New Mexico State has been on my radar this year. They played a decent non conference schedule and performed respectably, and now are back in the dance for the 4th year in a row. The players on this team aren't just happy to get there, they want to win this time. They almost won last year, losing in overtime causing their coach to cry in the post game press conference, so they will be hungry & motivated. They are underseeded. I think this team should have been a 13 or 14 seed, but are a 15. They are ranked #88 on KenPom, which would make them the 2nd best 15 seed in the last 10 years. Only 2012 Lehigh at #73 was ranked higher as a 15 seed on KenPom, and they won.

New Mexico State is also experienced, with 4 senior starters. They also have size, and rebound well. They will be the bigger team in this game vs. Kansas.

Kansas... anyone who has watched them knows that something isn't right with this team. They can't shoot 3s, have no interior depth without a 100% Perry Ellis and Cliff Alexander, they have had injuries, and just don't seem like that complete of a team. They are by far the weakest 2 seed and honestly, has no business being a 2 seed. Iowa State/Notre Dame are more deserving. This team is trending the wrong direction which is a direction you don't want to be going in March.

Lastly... there is a huge distraction involved for Kansas. Wichita State is on the other side of the bracket in this sub-regional. All the talk in the state of Kansas all week will be "KU vs. Wichita State.... KU vs. Wichita State". I think both teams will take their first round matchups for granted here because they will be looking ahead.

AND... Kansas has a history of struggling in the first round:

-Last year, trailed 15 seed Eastern Kentucky for most of the game before pulling away in the final 3 minutes. New Mexico State is a better team than EKU was, and Kansas is worse than last year.
-2013, they were a 1 seed and got a fight from 16 seed Western Kentucky for all 40 minutes, and only won by 7.
-2012, they were a 2 seed and couldn't pull away from 15 seed Detroit until the 2nd half.
-2011, they were a 1 seed and got a good game from 16 seed Boston U. for 30 minutes.
-2010, they were a 1 seed and was pushed by 16 seed Lehigh for 30 minutes.
-2009, they were a 3 seed and couldn't pull away from 14 seed North Dakota State until the final 3 minutes.


Give me New Mexico State here. Spread +12, and Money Line +700. It's a longshot, but worth going for considering there is a lot in favor of NMSU.

[DOM_Toretto]

NMst 1H will be my play. KU likely pull away but they're always close at half in the tourney.

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

I love New Mexico st here. I'm loading up

[BIGDAY]

Agreed

[Memento]

I watched them the other night against Seattle..they definitely have size and solid pressure defense. I don't where they rank defensively, but they could keep the score pretty low...meaning a 12 point line might be a lot for Kansas to cover.

[Yons18]

New Mexico St has the post game to be a bracket buster here. Also really like watching Daniel Mullings play, so who knows. It definitely could happen

[DavieVegas]

LOL You guys are snorting way to much crushed up tic tacs. COULD happen but wont. Ellis is not injured anymore. If he was out, I could see it

[Ralphie Halves]

I like the write up, except for the motivation part. It's the Big Dance, every team out there, even Kentucky, is 1000% motivated.

[rocky9995]

Some of your write ups have serious flaws. Kansas is a very good three point shooting team especially since conf play started. And they are actually kind of deep up front. They need Ellis Cuz he isn't replaceable. But Alexander is. I'm not gonna ️️bet game cuz I think both teams are vastly overated. In your other writeup you said Wyoming is deeper than UNI which is so completely wrong. Wyoming bench never ever scores or plays. While UNI does both. That said I like Wyoming alot, Id make the spread around 2-3, not 7

[frogsrangers]

Some of your write ups have serious flaws. Kansas is a very good three point shooting team especially since conf play started. And they are actually kind of deep up front. They need Ellis Cuz he isn't replaceable. But Alexander is. I'm not gonna ️️bet game cuz I think both teams are vastly overated. In your other writeup you said Wyoming is deeper than UNI which is so completely wrong. Wyoming bench never ever scores or plays. While UNI does both. That said I like Wyoming alot, Id make the spread around 2-3, not 7

What? Kansas has had tons of games where they made 1 or 0 threes. And even with Ellis, New Mexico State will have more size.

I don't think Wyoming is deeper than UNI, they just have better guards with Riley Grabau and Josh Adams.