1. 03-03-15 04:09 PM #1
    Regul8er
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    Regul8er's 2015 NCAAB Conference Tourny Thread

    Back at it after calling it a night midway through the Bowl Season up a nice little profit. Been watching a ton of hoops in the last few months, and going to see what I can make happen over the next month. First wagers of the 2014-15, so back at your own risk...or go ahead and fade. Warning, I'll be playing a HIGH volume of games.....as you can see, I'm playing all 8 Conference Tournament games tonight.

    I've got some metrics in place that are helping me determine which side to play. I can likely keep this up until we get to the point where 15 Tournaments are going on at once. Probably a few more feel plays at that point. Just don't have time to make write-ups on everything. Even though I'll be keeping my units consistent, I would say my favorite plays tonight are Youngstown St, Lipscomb and Army.

    Good Luck to everyone, and looking forward to some good discussion.

    Tuesday, March 3rd

    (Patriot) Army +3.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Patriot) Holy Cross -5.5, -110 -     Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (A-Sun) Stetson +17.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (A-Sun) Lipscomb +8, -115 - Risk 1.15 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (A-Sun) Kennesaw St +14.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (A-Sun) Florida Gulf Coast -12.5, -115 - Risk 1.15 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Horizon) Youngstown St +8.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Horizon) Illinois Chicago +2, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
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  2. 03-03-15 04:13 PM #2
    Louisvillekid1
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    Good Luck buddy!

    Lol I kinda want to play every tourney game for $20 (unless of course Its a full play like YSU tonight) just to track... this thread tempts me even more to do so.
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  3. 03-03-15 04:35 PM #3
    Regul8er
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    You too man.

    LOL........Ya, I'm overplaying for sure, but I don't care at this point. 1 unit for me during this is $150. Really hoping to get off to a nice start. The more I analyze, I really like Lipscomb vs NKU. Living in the area, I can't believe these guys are almost double digit favorites, especially against a middle of the pack team who finished .500. I see this as a dogfight.
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  4. 03-03-15 04:38 PM #4
    Louisvillekid1
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    Yeah I believe line is high because I think Lipscomb has a key injury and Northern Kentucky can't make the dance even if they win the tourney so maybe they are going all out? Lol I guess they would be doing that either way.
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  5. 03-03-15 04:44 PM #5
    Regul8er
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    Ya, Malcomb Smith is out...but I noticed they played well the 2 games he has missed recently.

    Really thinking the the game being played at Regents Hall could have an effect. There goes all familiarity they'd grown accustomed to all season. We'll see what happens.
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  6. 03-03-15 04:52 PM #6
    Louisvillekid1
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    good point
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  7. 03-04-15 06:54 AM #7
    Regul8er
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    I was going to complain about Youngstown St giving up an 18-4 run to lose the cover in the final 4 minutes........but Illinois Chicago made up for that coming back from a 19 point Halftime deficit. All evened up in the end.

    I guess this is why you need to play flat units. I was 1-2 on my favorite plays, and 4-1 on the others. If I upped the ante on the one's I liked most, I likely end up even, or down on the night.

    Will post up today's plays throughout the day.

    NCAAB Conference Tournament Record to Date: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.70 units
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  8. 03-04-15 06:56 AM #8
    2daBank
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    good start.. couple daytime gms today!
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  9. 03-04-15 09:59 AM #9
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    Here are my afternoon plays. I'll post the rest up later in the afternoon.

    Wednesday, March 4th

    (Big South) Longwood -2, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Big South) Gardner-Webb -6, -105 -     Risk 1.05 Unit to Win 1 Unit
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  10. 03-04-15 10:02 AM #10
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    The second I saw Pinny juice up Longwood to -2, -116, I knew the other books would soon follow.

    Just, and I mean just got Lancers before they hit -2, -115, and it looks like it'll be at -3 at my book any second. Get it while you can.
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  11. 03-04-15 10:02 AM #11
    Louisvillekid1
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    Great start!

    Nothing like hoops in the afternoon!
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  12. 03-04-15 03:24 PM #12
    Louisvillekid1
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    Nice work again buddy!
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  13. 03-04-15 03:29 PM #13
    Regul8er
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    Thanks Pal.......gives me some breathing room for the night card.

    I watched the last 2 minutes of the game, and would have been pretty upset if Campbell hit that last second 3....especially since GW had the cover the last 35 minutes of the game, and almost lost it with no time on the clock, LOL.

    I'll post up my card here shortly....just finishing a few things up.
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  14. 03-04-15 03:33 PM #14
    Louisvillekid1
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    yeah they faught hard towards the end there, webb almost blew it...

    But you had right side 100%
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  15. 03-04-15 04:43 PM #15
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    Goodluck to everyone tonight. My favorite plays for the night are Mount St. Mary's and Eastern Illinois, but feeling confident about my card.

    Wednesday, March 4th     (continued)

    (Big South) UNC Asheville -7.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Ohio Valley) Morehead St -4.5, -110 -     Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Ohio Valley) Eastern Illinois -1.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (America East) Maine +19.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (America East) UMBC +19.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (America East) Stony Brook -14, -115 - Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
    (America East) Hartford +6 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Northeast) LIU Brooklyn +12 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Northeast) Robert Morris -9 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Northeast) Sacred Heart +5 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Northeast) Mount St. Mary's -5.5 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
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  16. 03-04-15 04:45 PM #16
    Louisvillekid1
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    action action!
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  17. 03-04-15 04:47 PM #17
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    YUP.......each and every Conference game, lol.

    Seeing where it takes me. I'm able to keep up pretty well at this point, but come next week when we have 15 Tournaments going on at once, I'll be forced into making more gut plays then statistically driven ones.
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  18. 03-04-15 04:51 PM #18
    bballs84
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    Nice job Reg.. Cheers
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  19. 03-04-15 04:56 PM #19
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    Thanks Mr. bballs. Lets get it.
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  20. 03-05-15 07:01 AM #20
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    Another Nice little night for me. Hoping to carry the momentum into tonight. According to my count, another 13 games scheduled tonight, kicking off with Niagara/Siena at 5pm. Stay tuned.

    Tues, Mar 3rd.....5-3 (62.5%), +1.70 units
    Wed, Mar 4th.....9-4 (69.2%), +4.55 units
    ___________________________________________________
    (Overall NCAAB Tournament Record) 14-7 (66.7%), +6.25 units
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  21. 03-05-15 07:34 AM #21
    jameski999
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    Nice night keep it rolling Reg.
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  22. 03-05-15 07:36 AM #22
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  23. 03-05-15 03:08 PM #23
    Louisvillekid1
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    Outstanding work sir
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  24. 03-05-15 03:22 PM #24
    2daBank
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    great job my man..
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  25. 03-05-15 03:32 PM #25
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    Here's to hoping we can keep the ball rolling tonight. Best of Luck to everyone tonight.
    If I were only playing 3 games tonight, I would probably be on Fairfield, Bucknell and Bradley.

    Thursday, March 5th

    (Metro Atlantic) Siena -3.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Metro Atlantic) Fairfield +5.5, -110 -     Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Metro Atlantic) Marist +7, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Ohio Valley) Morehead St -1.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Ohio Valley) Eastern Illinois +6.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Atlantic Sun) North Florida -13.5, -110 - Risk 1.10 Units to Win 1 Unit
    (Atlantic Sun) Florida Gulf Coast -4, -105 - Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
    (Patriot) Boston University +4.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Patriot) Bucknell -5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Patriot) Colgate -7, -105 - Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
    (Patriot) American +4, -105 - Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
    (Missouri Valley) Southern Illinois -3 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Missouri Valley) Bradley -1 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
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  26. 03-06-15 06:57 AM #26
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    Hoping to stay on this heater through the weekend, with another rock solid 9-4 record ATS on Thursday. Weird night, in a way I kind of feel like I got kicked in the mouth, which is strange going 9-4. Three of my four losses were absolute blowout losses, missing the spread by an average of 19.5 points, lol. But my wins covered by an average of less then 6 points, with easy covers by Siena and Morehead St. So outside of those two wins, I covered by average of 3.5 points in my other 7 wins. Always nice to be on the right side of the one's that go down to the wire.

    Tues, Mar 3rd.....5-3 (62.5%), +1.70 units
    Wed, Mar 4th.....9-4 (69.2%), +4.55 units
    Thur, Mar 5th.....9-4 (69.2%), +4.65 units
    ___________________________________________________
    (Overall NCAAB Tournament Record) 23-11 (67.6%), +10.9 units
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  27. 03-06-15 10:50 AM #27
    Regul8er
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    Here are my early afternoon plays. I'll post the rest of my card a little later. My analysis of these games is grinding as heck, but with the start I've gotten off to, it needs to keep getting my time and attention.

    Friday, March 6th

    (Big South) Charleston Southern -10, -115 - Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
    (Big South) Winthrop -2, -110 -     Risk 1.10 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Missouri Valley) Southern Illinois +18.5, -110 -     Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    (Missouri Valley) Evansville +4.5, -110 - Risk 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
    Last edited by Regul8er; 03-06-15 at 10:53 AM.
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  28. 03-06-15 11:09 AM #28
    RetardStrength
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    Hey bud great job so far! Keep grindin!

    One question that would potentially help me.. Why Evansville? I had Ill St pegged as a play for today...

    Thanks!

    BOL
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  29. 03-06-15 11:32 AM #29
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    This was my toughest pick of the day so far. I had Illinois St pegged at -3, so jumped on Evansville +4.5. They just played a tight OT a few days ago, and I expect something similar today. Offensively they are pretty similar, at least in COnference games......except Evansville just doesnt attempt many 3's. They do have the most explosive scorer on the court, and Mockevicius impressed me against Wichita recently. My only real concern is Illinois St edge on the glass. It's actually pretty impressive that the Redbirds outrebounded 49-31 the other day, but Evansville still had a shot at the last second.

    Good luck bud.
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  30. 03-06-15 11:41 AM #30
    RetardStrength
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regul8er View Post
    This was my toughest pick of the day so far. I had Illinois St pegged at -3, so jumped on Evansville +4.5. They just played a tight OT a few days ago, and I expect something similar today. Offensively they are pretty similar, at least in COnference games......except Evansville just doesnt attempt many 3's. They do have the most explosive scorer on the court, and Mockevicius impressed me against Wichita recently. My only real concern is Illinois St edge on the glass. It's actually pretty impressive that the Redbirds outrebounded 49-31 the other day, but Evansville still had a shot at the last second.

    Good luck bud.
    Thanks! Will give this some more thought or take a pass. Best of luck to you!
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  31. 03-06-15 11:44 AM #31
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    Don't change because of me. I'm destined to blow up today, LOL. I mean, I do have Charleston SOuthern -10, and they are down 9 at the break. Playing like a shell of the team they are supposed to be. Hopefully they make a bit of a run to cut the gap.
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  32. 03-06-15 11:53 AM #32
    RetardStrength
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regul8er View Post
    Don't change because of me. I'm destined to blow up today, LOL. I mean, I do have Charleston SOuthern -10, and they are down 9 at the break. Playing like a shell of the team they are supposed to be. Hopefully they make a bit of a run to cut the gap.
    Of course! My plays are my plays but I appreciate your insight. You certainly put your work in on your plays. May CSU make a nice comeback in the 2nd for you!
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  33. 03-06-15 01:29 PM #33
    Louisvillekid1
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    great work man
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  34. 03-06-15 02:07 PM #34
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    Thanks LKid......just got a nice cover by the Salukis to even things up on the day....at least from a percentage.

    Let's have a weekend kid.
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  35. 03-06-15 03:43 PM #35
    Regul8er
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    OUCH....Radford drains three 3 pointers in the last 11 seconds to kill my cover by a point.
    GOnna be tough to recover from.
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