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02/17/14 Thriller Plays
Sup Guys,
Have a couple plays today. But my first play is
St Johns +7
This game is a last minute bucket kinda game to me with St Johns actually having a chance to take this one down. Absolutely huge game for SJ being at the 17 win mark. They lose this and their chances of getting in the big dance diminish GREATLY. And judging by the way they've played their last 3 games, against tough opponents, they know it.
Next Plays:
Kentucky -13.5
I actually started a thread saying that I was thinking of fading Kentucky until they lose. (I don't necessarily think they are going to lose) However I do think they will have to scratch and claw out of a lot of tight games to win out.
But damn, only 13.5 gotta take it. Thought this was going to be more like 17.5 or 18.
MSU -4
Just do it, MSU is firing on all cylinders right now. They really showed their maturity and growth in the Ohio State game. Michigan on a 4 game skid. I don't care that they are at home. It may take some stressful free throws in the end, but MSU wins and covers this.
Last edited by PhilTheTHRILL; 02-17-15 at 10:33 AM. Reason: adding MSU
Cmon w that whole "last 3 johnnies opponents have played been tough" crap. Their last gm at Xavier a good win. The other 2 tho? DePaul and Creighton, not exactly the cream of the crop.. Gtown presents a much different matchup as they will slow the gm down and make johnnies score against their stout d in the half court. Think it come down to end but only thing in question be the spread that I think be close. Gl
Told yA today ain't day to start fading uk. They seriously score 60 points and that prob be enough to cover. Don't see vols even getting 50 for real..
How is msu firing on all cylinders? I follow msu pretty closely would say the improved play of nairn is the only difference for msu lately...
fair question, id like to hear answer, i havnt been following them at all, caught most the osu gm but they didnt look like they were in typical izzo late feb form really.. and not like they been playing great outside of that gm either just going off the numbers. i mean mich horrible so might not matter but i basically skipped this gm thinking i didnt way lay road chalk with sparty and new i wouldnt play mishitgan after how they did me in illini other day, one of few times ive been on um side. i guess that might have been my illini curse as much as them tho, lol.Originally Posted by survive
Follow them closely as in what? Looking at Box scores? MSU beat an OSU team that is better in pretty much every position. Watched the entire game while rooting for OSU to cover and MSU just wouldn't let it happen. It took a super clutch Ice cold 3 pointer, but it doesn't matter. Their Defense is the top of the big 10 and will continue to be. If MSU can knock down some free throws this game won't be close. It's Michigan State, and it's that time of year. Pretty simple.
Of course its a crap shoot and they may not cover. But the fact is MSU is the better team. I just refuse to let the home court throw me off this one. Michigan is in the Bottom half of the big 10 in nearly every statistical category while MSU is either #1 or in the top 3.
i certainly agree playing mich makes no sense.. i watched the osu gm and they looked decent enough, i know osu can score so it was quite a effort holding them in the 50s, that said i think osu a little more hype than substance cause they a 1 man team for the most part, that man is a bad mfer but izzo will never let one guy beat him.. of coarse mich a no man team so shouldnt be difficult.. im just saying spartys numbers of late havnt been screaming that they peaking. losing to illini in east lancing, getting pushed to ot at home vs this same crappy mich team, losing to freaking neb? that their last couple weeks with ass whippings of nw and rutgers thrown in..
Dude you are nuts if you don't consider Creighton tough competition. They aren't the same team as last year of course but don't be blinded by that. They aren't garbage. and that Xavier win was VERY solid. Not to mention, St Johns D isn't bad.. thats for sure.
Trust me, I know all of these picks could go array, and that's the risk you take. Aside from yesterday I've been pretty good fade material. So, take it with a grain of salt. But, my picks are in, locked and loaded, and I'm feeling good about them.
With that being said, what are your guys picks for today? I'm thinking about throwing Wichita State in the mix too. Should easily cover on the road.
Also, to both of you guys. Thank you for the discussion. I truly appreciate the insight from different minds!
creighton on the road isnt a tough W this year, at home they still present some toughness.. not taking anything from the xavier win, they needed that and xavier hard to beat at their place. i loved johnnies coming into the year but their d has been weak, i mean they make great exciting defensive plays but they lazy and dont clean up the glass which is a big part of their pathetic defensive rating. i dont like the hoyas at all but i think they play pretty similar to butler these days and butler was a serious thorn in johnnies side. i dont wanna even be against you as i have a feeling this gm played very close to that 7, i also felt when i saw the line they were kinda dangling that 7 out there almost daring ya considering johnnies recent wins and hoyas not playing their best. i know teasers dumb but there few home teams im pretty confident win but not sure on number. uga is one, sooners are another, and debating being greedy and adding hoyas as a 3rd team, although i like idea of taking lsu up to 7.5 as well..
Follow closely as in watching most games, reading msu blogs and discussion with my friends from msu-I graduated from msu a couple of years ago. Michigan is awful but I just don't think this msu team is anything special and Beilein usually gives izzo a game. Throw in that it's a rivalry game, I'm staying away from this one
I would mention I'm a hoyas fan and I agree with st johns they can shoot 3s and g town is vulnerable at giving them up
Like all the opposites lol
Fair enough. Valid points. Well, I'm either on the right side or the wrong side. No in between, So I guess we shall see.
Probably a good thing Leet. lol I'm sure it will pay off for you! haha
well phil, think you got a little one upped on calling him a box score follower
didnt know you were a sparty grad, this was hilarious way to find out tho..
dont take this personal phil. shit was funny tho, just jokes tho buddy..
if you made me play one of the 2 between sparty and johnnies id take sparty even if reluctantly..
far as shockers question i very rarely play on them man, i had them as a team to look for opportunities to play against since the beginning of season and have done pretty well doing so. they have got me a few times but ive got them a bunch! not any knock on them, they a good team. just a team that has gotten a lot of inflated lines due to success and also when a team from the valley has the success they have had recently even the scrub teams in the valley usually play some of their better gms against said team getting all the attention,, since the uni gm i havnt had many what i felt were good cracks at them, they got me by a point against ill st and those gms in between i stayed away as i felt the inflation was not as obvious plus they been playing a little pissed. so maybe it is time i start looking to play on them. i think this line just about right tho man, siu has been playing really competitive against the upper half of the conf the last month or so. it was only a 12 point gm in Wichita. shockers didnt shoot the 3 well at all in that gm so i think there some extra points out there for them but they also had a very big ft advantage, i always expect that gap to narrow in the other teams gym and siu does a good job of getting to the line. very doubtful shockers gain 8 points at the charity stripe tonight. pretty likely they shoot better than the 2-12 they were from deep, but at same time even tho sui isnt a very good 3 point shooting team at home id expect them to be better than 2-9. shockers also shot well over 60% from inside the arc the 1st meeting and that pretty unlikely to happen again. sui interior d kinda sux but you would still expect shockers to be closer to 50% than over 60%. take that all in and put this gm at siu and i think this has makings of a pretty similar score which way too close to the spread. i mean you could do a 8 point tease and play shockers with confidence (i wouldnt even do a 4 or 5 tho)..
Well, St. John's really impressed me in the 1st half......
Gonna try to hedge my SJU bet and grab GTown -1.5 for the 2H. Don't see SJU hanging around at all after that 1H performance. Just hope it doesnt hit the middle.
Also Grabbing South Carolina 2H +8 for a dime... yessir
And:
Everyone and their mom on here is on New Mexico tonight.
So for that reason and that reason alone I'm throwing half a unit on SD State -2.5.
Alright so far:
SJU +7 LOSS
KENTUCKY -13.5 WIN
GTown 2H -1.5 WIN
SC 2H +8 LOSS
Sitting at 2-2 for the night with 2 bets left.
I'm sure you are watching the game, but this is what I mean by MSU firing on all cylinders. Their D is stout. It also helps that Michigan can't hit the broad side of a barn with the Ball. lol
Good call buddy, glad msu took care of our "big brother" and you cashed. Shooting over 60% is definitely firing on all cylinders I'll give you that!
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