[2daBank]

oh man what a nice big card we have today, with some really interesting matchups! lets see if we can keep the good times rolling and come up with some more winners!!

ok so all week i been posting my fav play here in the original post, problem is i like a lot today and i am still not done with the card. so the thing is im not sure this my fav play as of yet, dont get me wrong i obviously like it a great deal to be posting it, just saying for now it a normal 1u play..

odu-2.5..im certainly no line movement expert, but im happy here with this number and really think this will go up to at least -4 later in the day which is why im choosing to lead off with this one (of coarse as ive proven plenty i dunno wtf gonna happen with the line, i just feel it should be higher, whether it actually moves in our favor is beyond me. lol)...

if im gonna back road chalk this the kind of team i wanna do it with. two words, defense and rebounding, they travel and odu among the best in the country at both..monarchs are 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency and have actually improved 1pper100 in conf which by far the best in conf usa. they rebound 37% of their misses good for 23rd in the nation and 2nd in the conf while only allowing teams to grab 25% of their misses good for 12th, a number that has actually dwindled to 23% in conf play again ranking 2nd.. this team flat out gets after it on the defensive end of the court which bad news for a mtsu team that ranks 283rd in the country in offensive efficiency..

odu comes in sporting a 15-2 record which includes only 1 road loss that was on the tail end of a 3 gm road trip against a very solid wku squad.. a case could be made that complacency might be a issue with 5 days off undoubtedly being told how good they are all around campus, normally that would be a concern for me but the fact mtsu beat them like a rented mule twice last season, the second time to eliminate them from the conf tourney, i dont suspect any such letdown here..

there is one huge concern for me here, odu turns the ball over far too often. they have went from a fairly respectable but not great 19% turnover rate out of conf to a terrible 23.7% in conf play. that is damn near once every 4 possessions and that is a issue against a mtsu team that is second in the conf creating turnovers. these problems typicaly occur when their pg freemon is off the court as his backup is a disaster.. much of the reason im willing to overlook this is because we are talking about a team that limited themselves to 12 against vcu who is amongst the best in the country at turning teams over and makes up the possesions from their own misques by turning the opponent over at a decent clip and by winning the rebounding battle.. mtsu isnt above turning it over some themsleves and i feel like as long as we keep the margin within 5 or so odu will be able to make that up in other areas. much like with tulsa and rebounding yesterday all odu has to be is close in this area (turnover margin) and i believe they will come away with a comforitable victory. if they win or keep the turnover battle even then this gm could get similarly ugly this time for the home team. i made this number more like 6-7 so obviously i see enough value to make a play here..

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

Good luck today bank. Traveling all day might not be able to get any good looks.

[2daBank]

gotta like provo today.. xavier is night and day with their home/road splits. only road win they have all season is against my terrible mizzou tigers.. butler and nova hung 88 on them, aub 89 (although it took 2 ots), they only managed 68 vs a crappy depaul defense in losing that gm. not really much more to say, X is just a team you fade away from their gym and look to play at home.

provo-2.5 (-115)..1x..

[leetreaper]

gotta like provo today.. xavier is night and day with their home/road splits. only road win they have all season is against my terrible mizzou tigers.. butler and nova hung 88 on them, aub 89 (although it took 2 ots), they only managed 68 vs a crappy depaul defense in losing that gm. not really much more to say, X is just a team you fade away from their gym and look to play at home.

provo-2.5 (-115)..1x..

Lean them also.

[RavensFan2k3]

I like Rhode Island off of first glance

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

Looked quick and I agree with u on prov. also leans on Colorado and Fairfield. Bama to cover as well

[KDF500]

NC St +4 stands out to me, big size advantag here, although that doesn't always translate

[2daBank]

Looked quick and I agree with u on prov. also leans on Colorado and Fairfield. Bama to cover as well

bama line def looks high,, havnt had the chance to look at the other 2 yet.. no reason bama cant score in bunches on this arky team. only turned it over 13 and 10 times in their 2 games last season and while i think arky is pretty similar to last season bama is much improved over last years squad..

[2daBank]

NC St +4 stands out to me, big size advantag here, although that doesn't always translate

size adv? i dont really see that.. dont necessarily disagree with the play, not sure where the big size adv is tho? i guess they bigger at the guards but canes a lot quicker on the perimeter.. id make sure barber is playing before i would do anything tho. he really their only true pg..

[RavensFan2k3]

size adv? i dont really see that.. dont necessarily disagree with the play, not sure where the big size adv is tho? i guess they bigger at the guards but canes a lot quicker on the perimeter.. id make sure barber is playing before i would do anything tho. he really their only true pg..

Is that game a Miami home game? I might go

[2daBank]

Is that game a Miami home game? I might go

yep

[RavensFan2k3]

yep

Any thoughts on Rhode Island?

I like Rhode Island off of first glance

[BiffTFinancial]

like Friars a lot, likely will be on them. and i'm always interested in VA small schools like Monarchs. BOL tonight brotha.

also like VT, OSU/NU over at first glance.

[BiffTFinancial]

like Friars a lot, likely will be on them. and i'm always interested in VA small schools like Monarchs. BOL tonight brotha.

also like VT, OSU/NU over at first glance.

add Hoosiers side/game over to list of leans

[KDF500]

size adv? i dont really see that.. dont necessarily disagree with the play, not sure where the big size adv is tho? i guess they bigger at the guards but canes a lot quicker on the perimeter.. id make sure barber is playing before i would do anything tho. he really their only true pg..

Yes referring to size at the point but I was unaware about barber, thanks Banker.

[2daBank]

i think this another good spot to fade iona.. rider held them to 77 which one of their lower totals on the season when losing at iona a month ago.. 3rd road tilt in a row for a team that has all the traits of a road fav i like to fade (although it appears they may close as dogs here). absolutely terrible defensively and a miserable rebounding team. which both happen to be strengths of this rider team who has been playing really well since this last meeting.. iona is also gonna be without isaiah willaims who scored 15 the 1st matchup and is their most lethal 3 point shooter.. iona shot 40% from long range in the 1st meeting and while that isnt out of the norm for them it is a uncharacteristically high percentage for rider to give up who is a very good 3pt% defense. english is a nighmare matchup for rider but with one less weapon for them to have to defend i expect the defense to hold them to a even lower total this time around..

[DOM_Toretto]

gotta like provo today.. xavier is night and day with their home/road splits. only road win they have all season is against my terrible mizzou tigers.. butler and nova hung 88 on them, aub 89 (although it took 2 ots), they only managed 68 vs a crappy depaul defense in losing that gm. not really much more to say, X is just a team you fade away from their gym and look to play at home.

provo-2.5 (-115)..1x..

Xavier head coach said one of the team goals is to go undefeated at home this season. It's a questionable goal since I think it leaves you open to weak road efforts.

[2daBank]

Any thoughts on Rhode Island?

havnt looked much at that gm but off top of my head im wary of RI as i dont believe they have really beaten anyone worth a damn.. turn it over a ton (lasalle forces a lot of turnovers too), and they foul so freaking much (not sure lasalle takes adv of that id have to look closer).just gut id have to say i wouldnt be comfortable laying points with them as i cant recall 1 win vs a school inside the top 200!

[2daBank]

Xavier head coach said one of the team goals is to go undefeated at home this season. It's a questionable goal since I think it leaves you open to weak road efforts.

yea that seems like a cop out for sucking on the road.. maybe their goal should be to actually preform at a high level every time out instead of being doormats away from their gym,. last i checked they dont play tourney gms at home do they? maybe they do the tourney they gonna end up in ..whatever tho,, seems like it makes life easy on us when capping them..

[2daBank]

gonna be hard for me to stay off terps even tho i prob should, maybe the fact i already played a road fav will do it.. terps defend the trey really well and hoosiers live off the 3.. indy's home court is scary but how many points it worth? i would make terps considerable favs on a neutral court and they gonna end up being dogs here.. there no way hoosiers home court is worth what it would have to be for this line to be right in my eyes.. im seriously talking terps as 6-7 point favs on a neutral so once again my numbers and theirs are way the fukk different as im assuming indy doesnt get 8 points for home court?

[DOM_Toretto]

yea that seems like a cop out for sucking on the road.. maybe their goal should be to actually preform at a high level every time out instead of being doormats away from their gym,. last i checked they dont play tourney gms at home do they? maybe they do the tourney they gonna end up in ..whatever tho,, seems like it makes life easy on us when capping them..

Yes, X covering 2H spreads when they're down at halftime at home are like gold.

[survive]

You already covered my thoughts on xavier. Totally different squad on the road. Providence looks really good

[THam12]

Idaho seems like a very solid bet under the radar.

[survive]

Stanford? Pepperdine?

[2daBank]

Stanford? Pepperdine?

havnt gotten there but without a doubt it trees or nothing.. gonna be a min before im on to either of those..

[2daBank]

someone tagging Xavier? strange.

[survive]

i think this another good spot to fade iona.. rider held them to 77 which one of their lower totals on the season when losing at iona a month ago.. 3rd road tilt in a row for a team that has all the traits of a road fav i like to fade (although it appears they may close as dogs here). absolutely terrible defensively and a miserable rebounding team. which both happen to be strengths of this rider team who has been playing really well since this last meeting.. iona is also gonna be without isaiah willaims who scored 15 the 1st matchup and is their most lethal 3 point shooter.. iona shot 40% from long range in the 1st meeting and while that isnt out of the norm for them it is a uncharacteristically high percentage for rider to give up who is a very good 3pt% defense. english is a nighmare matchup for rider but with one less weapon for them to have to defend i expect the defense to hold them to a even lower total this time around..

Agree, rider looks really appealing

[2daBank]

Idaho seems like a very solid bet under the radar.

ugh.. dunno bout laying that number with a team that doesnt seem all that interested in making stops on the defensive end..

[THam12]

ugh.. dunno bout laying that number with a team that doesnt seem all that interested in making stops on the defensive end..

Doesnt take too much to stop a team like North Dakota...
they havent beaten a team in the top 250 rankings on kenpom all season. 5 wins... 2 against unranked, 3 against 254, 305, and 316.
idaho has beaten 4 top 250 teams.

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

North Texas, home dog has gotta be a solid play as well

[THam12]

Northern colorado is a VERY similar team to Idaho. No Col just beat north dakota and only allowed 78 pts in an OT game at their place.
Idaho offense and defense is very similar to No Col and tgey get benefit of being at home where they are 5-0 ATS. They are 9-3 ATS overall in last 12. NO DAK is 7-7 ATS last 14 and 5-4 ATS away, 1-1 against conf foes.

Idaho is a better rebounding team and shooting team. They average 37 rebs a game, 10 offensive, No dak only averages 28, 7 offensive. Idaho also averages 8 3 pters a game to no daks 5.

[2daBank]

Doesnt take too much to stop a team like North Dakota...
they havent beaten a team in the top 250 rankings on kenpom all season. 5 wins... 2 against unranked, 3 against 254, 305, and 316.
idaho has beaten 4 top 250 teams.

they have also lost to a handful around and outside of the top 250..no way id lay 7 points with a team not ranked inside the top 200 in the country. not saying you wrong that just me..

[THam12]

they have also lost to a handful around and outside of the top 250..no way id lay 7 points with a team not ranked inside the top 200 in the country. not saying you wrong that just me..

None of those in their building...
No Dak also doesnt shoot FTs well. 66%. That isnt gonna help them on the road where tgey will need all the easy pts they can get against a team that can absolute fill it up.

[2daBank]

Northern colorado is a VERY similar team to Idaho. No Col just beat north dakota and only allowed 78 pts in an OT game at their place.
Idaho offense and defense is very similar to No Col and tgey get benefit of being at home where they are 5-0 ATS. They are 9-3 ATS overall in last 12. NO DAK is 7-7 ATS last 14 and 5-4 ATS away, 1-1 against conf foes.

Idaho is a better rebounding team and shooting team. They average 37 rebs a game, 10 offensive, No dak only averages 28, 7 offensive. Idaho also averages 8 3 pters a game to no daks 5.

there very similar and the gm went to ot,, not a great case to lay 7 points just cause they happened to blow them out in the ot.. again it just me and something i wouldnt do. not like im looking to play the other side. i just have a hard time weighting numbers that have came against the kind of teams these guys play..

[THam12]

they have also lost to a handful around and outside of the top 250..no way id lay 7 points with a team not ranked inside the top 200 in the country. not saying you wrong that just me..

I feel you... with 95% of bets on NO Dak... im thinking itll hit 6. And im fine with it...

Idaho better rebounding, WAY better scoring team, better FTs, FGs, 3pfg %s. Similar defensively...this is the big sky, npone plays defense (except sac state a lil)