[No coincidences]

OK, so everyone knows I've commented over and over again through the years about how this team always finds bizarre ways not to cover games. Tonight, I actually did some research.

BYU is 4-9 ATS this year after tonight's "interesting" win/non-cover. They were up 15 at the under 4 timeout (-11 for the game), yet somehow magically only won by 9 (missed a ton of free throws in the last two minutes, which is pretty typical late in a BYU game).

Last season, they were 13-19 ATS. Year before that? 16-19. Year before that? 15-16. Year before that? 15-18. I couldn't find the last time they finished even above .500 ATS.

What's even more interesting is their postseason record ATS. Last year? 0-4. Season before that was 3-2, but they were 1-3 in '11-12, 2-4 in '10-11, 1-3 in '09-10, and 0-3 in '08-09.

So dating back to '10-11, they are 63-81 ATS, and dating back to '08-09, they are 7-19 ATS in postseason games.

[THam12]

They just need MORMONey...

Sorry i couldn't resist

[2daBank]

They just need MORMONey...

Sorry i couldn't resist

haha

[2daBank]

i actually love those religious little fukkers so im not mad.. it has gotten to the point if im border line on a number against them i play it.. this one wasnt shit compared to the number they pulled in the stanford gm.. that was like a 4 or 5 point spread and think they were up 15 after the under 4 to. managed to win by 2.. funny thing is they the 10th best ft shooting team in the country at 77%, gotta think they in the mid 80s if you throw away the last 5 minutes, lol...

[No coincidences]

6 of their 9 ATS losses this year have been within a single possession of the closing line.

[jtoler]

Nothing strange about having ats below .500 bro, just means they are more than likely a public team being overvalued and dont/cant live up to the number more times than not. BYU's a big name with a strong home floor and people like to bet them and the books know this.

[No coincidences]

i actually love those religious little fukkers so im not mad.. it has gotten to the point if im border line on a number against them i play it.. this one wasnt shit compared to the number they pulled in the stanford gm.. that was like a 4 or 5 point spread and think they were up 15 after the under 4 to. managed to win by 2.. funny thing is they the 10th best ft shooting team in the country at 77%, gotta think they in the mid 80s if you throw away the last 5 minutes, lol...

Isn't that convenient?

I'm telling you, there's some fishy shit going on out there.

[No coincidences]

Nothing strange about having ats below .500 bro, just means they are more than likely a public team being overvalued and dont/cant live up to the number more times than not. BYU's a big name with a strong home floor and people like to bet them and the books know this.

Didn't say that, but when you're that far under (63-81 ATS since '10-11, 7-19 ATS in the postseason since '08-09) and are never in the black on the plus side of the spread, you have to wonder.

[2daBank]

Isn't that convenient?

I'm telling you, there's some fishy shit going on out there.

i always thought you were paranoid but they certainly have a knack for not covering gms they for all intensive purposes have covered. obviously you expect that from time to time cause it happens in this sport quite a bit, but their percentages of not covering gms they all but have covered is probably higher than the national avg.. whether it just a case of them not being finishers or they shaving i dont care, why be mad about it and not just take points against them? i know you been on this theory for some time so it surprises me you dont bet against them more??

[jtoler]

Didn't say that, but when you're that far under (63-81 ATS since '10-11, 7-19 ATS in the postseason since '08-09) and are never in the black on the plus side of the spread, you have to wonder.

May be a couple things, but when youre up double digits late, Im sure the same focus and intensity is not there for you on either side of the ball, coupled with they really cant stop anyone from scoring anyway. With not the same focus being up double digits late with the opposing team with high focus and a driven urge to score and make stops that may be the reason why instead of winning by double digits they win by say 8 or so, not saying youre wrong on your theory just giving an example.

[Tommy Karate]

look at all the money coming in on the cougars...

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Many elite BYU athletes are not mormon.

Someone ran an article a couple years back about how terrible it is to go there as a black, non-mormon athlete.

[2daBank]

look at all the money coming in on the cougars...

i couldnt bring myself to pull the trigger on clara's pitiful defense,,mormons gonna have to really have their game faces on to not cover this number.. i chickened out and teased byu down...

[THam12]

Wow... 8.5 now

[THam12]

Yeah i csnt pull the trigger on either

[infinite wisdom]

i have some charts that havent been updated for the last few seasons. so, something like 1999 thru 2011. they show that over those years BYU had been one of the best favorites to bet in all of college basketball. as a road favorite 44-33 and as a home favorite 100-71, for a total of 144-104 for 58%. year after year when favored BYU is usually be on/up based on this historical trend. when a fav of >7 alot of their home games fell within 7 points of the number.

today, i agree there is some shaving going on. 10-0 their last 10 games have been decided by <7 points ATS, with 8 of 10 4.0 points or less. you should be teasing both directions in their games right now. 10-0 last 10.

[Tommy Karate]

if they dont cover this one, coiner is right....

[THam12]

Kinda lik clara -.5 2H

[KRIT]

I think i've backed BYU more than any other team in college this year. The three games that come to mind they had the cover in hand and clearly blew it down the stretch with turnovers and missed FTs. The game against SDSU in Maui was ridiculous, i think they were up 5 with under a minute and managed not to cover as like a 4 pt underdog. A couple weeks ago against Stanford I think they were up by like 11 with 3 minutes to go, somehow only won by 2 when the line was like BYU -3.5. I think the BYU guy missed 2 fts in the closing seconds. And of course just last week they had a 6 pt lead in the 2h against Zags at home and managed to lose by 7 when they were up +5.

[Tommy Karate]

not today of course....

[Scott8282]

This stupid post encouraged me not to bet BYU lol.

[BigDofBA]

Up 15 with four minutes left and winning by 9 doesnt seem abnormal but I didnt see the game.

If we see this trend, why not just bet against them?

[Tommy Karate]

This stupid post encouraged me not to bet BYU lol.

How is it stupid if there is factual info in here with statistics to back it up.

BYU does lose big leads more then any team. I do think someone is shaving points. Will look into any patterns for how they are off a blowout win.

[Scott8282]

Think its far fetched. In regard to the stupid post, just seeing the title blog and reading the info encouraged me to not bet BYU which I had planned to all day. Tilted the scale in the other direction. Would have been far less stupid of a post if they didn't cover =)

[Tommy Karate]

Up 15 with four minutes left and winning by 9 doesnt seem abnormal but I didnt see the game.

If we see this trend, why not just bet against them?

i started today;

[No coincidences]

Just sayin'....

[xdodger19]

ole miss scored over 60 points in the second half, there was one play where the Ole Miss player got the rebound and sprinted with the ball to the three point line and drilled it. Maybe BYU needs to run some clock when up by 15.

[BadLuckSanta]

Up 17 at half


Unreal

[meader99]

A team that relies on jump shooting and doesnt play defense gives up a halftime lead? Why would that shock anyone? Fairly common.