Originally Posted by
RestlessSpirit
Sorry for the delay on breaking down the AOPR analysis I previously spoke of, but I am just now having time to type this out. I'd first like to state that I take absolutely no ownership of this and actually just randomly ran across it while doing a web search looking for an analysis of its type. I am sure a lot of you either use it or something similar when trying to calculate projected scoring outcomes of games. I began using it full force a few days back, as it needs 5+ games of data to be effective and should get better as more games are played. It has been rather accurate thus far.
So this is how I understand the analysis and use it myself. Once I select a game I want to look at I do the following.
1) Get each teams strength of schedule thus far. I use sagarini's.
2) Get each teams ppg offense and defensive numbers
3) Divide the higher SOS by the lower SOS. This gives you a way to get the two teams on an equal playing field and give you an SOS differential.
4) Divide each teams offensive scoring by the D1 average, which I use 71 ppg.
5) Multiple each teams offensive results against the SOS differential number
6) Now add the SOS differential to PPG calculation of the team with the higher SOS and subtract the SOS differential from the PPG calculation of the team with a lower SOS to give you a new PPG for each team taking SOS into the analysis
7) Lastly you multiple each teams NEW PPG by their opponents Defensive PPG to get a total projected score of the game. Then add in 3 points to the home team for home court advantage.
So for an example I'll use the Butler vs Indiana State game from 12/3.
Butler -
Sos - 73.08
Off PPG - 72.7
Def PPG - 54.5
Indiana State-
Sos- 69.32
Off PPG - 66.3
Def PPG - 69.7
3) 73.08 / 69.32 = 1.054
OSS differential= .054
4) Butler - 73.08 / 71 = 1.024
IN. St. - 69.32 / 71 = .976
5) Multiple by OSS Differential
Butler - 1.024 x .054 = .055
IN. St. - .976 x .054 = .053
6) Add differential to higher SOS and subtract from lower SOS
Butler - 1.024 + .055 = 1.079
IN. St. - .976 - .053 = .923
7) Multiple new PPG to opponents Def PPG to get projected score.
Butler - 1.079 x 69.7 = 75
IN. ST. - .976 x 54.5 = 53
- add +3 for home court advantage
Projected score
Butler 75
IN. St. 56
From their, like with the KenPom I look for game that have major differences between projected score and spread. I have played this analysis and gone 6-1 with it. Dayton was the one game that was a lose and it was substantially in their favor.
Please let me know of any fine tuning or fallacies in this approach as it's always a learning process.