Play #1: UCONN G Shabazz Napier Total Points Over 17.5 [-120] Why would you fade this year's One Man Band? No point. He stroked FLA for 26 in their first meeting on 9/15 from the floor, 5/8 from deep. All he's done in the tournament is score 19 or better in all four games. He's going to play heavy minutes and he's going to have the ball in his hands. The 3 ball will be big as he shoots around 40% from beyond the arc, which is nearly as good as a his overall FG% of 42. He has four makes in each of the last three games.
Play #2: FLORIDA C Patric Young Total Rebounds Over 6 [-115] UCONN does have some length, but generally not the combo of bulk and length to be the dominant factor on the boards. Daniels & Giffey have the height, but a guy like Young should be able to control the defensive glass or needs to if the Gators are going to win. Young had seven boards in their first meeting and FLA was +7 overall on the glass. Staying out of foul trouble is key for Young. When he plays 25 minutes or more, he has grabbed at least six boards in 19 of 25 games. He's done the same in the NCAAs in three of four, failing to grab six rebounds only against UCLA when he played just 20 minutes due to foul issues. With UCONN not having a great inside game, Young needs to be disciplined on drives to not pick up cheap fouls. If he avoids that and plays his game, I think he's got a really good shot to surpass this number.
Play #3: KENTUCKY F Julius Randle Total Rebounds Over 11 [-110] Randle is just a beast on the boards, averaging 10.7 per game this season. In the tournament, he has grabbed 11 or more in three of four. He had 10 against Wichita State. Kentucky is one of the top rebounding squads in D1 with a +9.8 margin for the season. Wisconsin is +1.6. Randle has been very good at avoiding fouls in general. The magic number for me in this one is 30 minutes. If he can play at least 30 minutes, I think this is a realistic number to achieve.
Guess Shabazz left all his magic @ MSG. Looks like Wiggins did last week. Finally took one to the hole instead of floating around the arc at least. Needs to get on a heater before half time.
Unbelievable that UCONN is up with Shabazz not doing that much damage at all. Young needs one board to push. All in all, if I can sneak a push or win on the Young prop - I will feel good considering.
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