[PumaBets]

Hello all,

I was playing around with a little newbie style thought experiment to practice reviewing trends etc for the purpose of Handicapping Totals. I was looking into my home Minnesota Gophers' 2013 season of game results to see how game totals were affected by intentional fouls at the end of close games. I understand that this involves things such as small sample size and other issues with a ~30 game set. The question I have is not related to my initial research. Instead, I found that something like 21 of 26 point total results were at least 10 points over or under the Total Line (As listed on Covers.com).

Now I am aware that the Total Line is made not to accurately predict the total score, but for wagering balance. Yet wouldn't I expect the total to come close more often than miss by 15 points +/-? Perhaps this is a huge anomaly, or this dumb team is terribly inconsistent, but the lines varied between 122-165 and were still missing by 10-20 points.

I guess I am wondering if Totals generally spray with this kind of frequency, and if so, is a 2 point move on a line really a significant statistical advantage? I was hoping there would be something related to the advantage of accurately predicting a total by 2, 4, or 6 points etc. i.e. Book line gives 138, "actual" average score would be 136, what is the adv of getting an Under line at 140 over long term vs juice and random distribution? Yet this question is more worrisome if a few points on the Totals don't change much for the bettor over the long term when the actual results spray the side of a barn like a Jihadi with an AK-47!

Any insight on the distribution vs line for Totals? Are the MN Goophballs just a crazy team?

Thanks!

[PumaBets]

Perhaps I was a bit too complicated with the original post. I have looked for references online for maybe charts or information on Total results vs Total Lines. I did find the above listed results for MN on covers as mentioned, but it doesn't tell how many points the line missed by. I am looking to get an idea of what the distribution looks like on average, to get a better idea of how accurate the total line is. For example, do 50% of the results fall within 5 points +/- of the total, or do 80%... or only 30%. I can go through by hand and plot 1000 games, but perhaps thought there might be resources that exist for such a sports betting stat.

Thank you.

(Mod please move to Handicapping Think Tank section if better suited for this type of question.)