[No coincidences]

You know, you bet against a game that seems way too easy on paper, and it turns out that it actually is just that. There are tons of examples every day. Why? Because Vegas just copies their lines from Ken Pomeroy these days, leading to a lot of stupid, soft numbers that any Average Joe better can eat up.

I'll start:

Texas Tech -1 today against Oklahoma.



I've been KenPom'ed!!! Nice line, Vegas!!!

[ebbearsfb1]

Coin what does Kempton have for Pitt game? Let me guess pitt by 3?

[ChrisInTheMist]

How did that look easy on paper? Any person with 0 knowledge on basketball could have just looked at a 15-4 team and a 10-9 team and picked a winner.. You over thought this game along with fla and the other one

[ebbearsfb1]

How did that look easy on paper? Any person with 0 knowledge on basketball could have just looked at a 15-4 team and a 10-9 team and picked a winner.. You over thought this game along with fla and the other one

Well thats exactly what he is saying.. blindly looking at it.. Oklahoma looks like the play easy.. then why are they a pk

[No coincidences]

How did that look easy on paper? Any person with 0 knowledge on basketball could have just looked at a 15-4 team and a 10-9 team and picked a winner.. You over thought this game along with fla and the other one

That's exactly what I'm talking about.

Oklahoma was the easy play on paper. Vegas sets an asinine line based on KenPom's numbers and gets gobbled up because of it.

You see, I make the mistake of assuming the guys who are professional linesmakers can, you know, do their jobs and do them well. But I picked up on a trend last year, noticing that all Vegas does for about 90% of its games is just parrot Pomeroy's lines (both sides and totals). As a result, games like Texas Tech/Oklahoma have surfaced more and more -- Vegas gets curb-stomped because they're paying more attention to advanced stats than common sense. And in this case, I was dumb enough to think they knew what they were doing by making Tech a favorite.

[b1slickguy]

Call it the Coinspiracy theory. Keep at 'em and good luck.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Exactly was jus sayin this Coin jus like College Football jus bet over every game and it hits

[No coincidences]

Exactly was jus sayin this Coin jus like College Football jus bet over every game and it hits

It's amazing how much more "simple" betting college sports has gotten over the past few years.

[jtoler]

Thats a typical line for a conference game, it just played out that way, Tech was giving 4.5 to Baylor and won. Conference teams beat up on one another.

[Louisvillekid1]

I use Ken Pom's stats not his predictions

[No coincidences]

Are Maryland backers going to get Ken Pom'ed?

[No coincidences]

I use Ken Pom's stats not his predictions

Then you're smarter than Vegas.

[No coincidences]

Kenny had Pitt by 6 tonight.



Check in, Kenny. Another stellar call. Vegas buried again on another bullshit "advanced stats" line.

[lucullus]

You're right but you do have opposite end of spectrum where -200 + favorites lose

[CoachemUp]

As an admitted KenPom fan, I'm confused what the OP is getting at here?

If you're such a hero and Vegas is so dumb why would you:

A. Come on SBR and complain about this amazing edge you have.

and B. Not be sitting on a beach somewhere counting all the money you've made.


I don't mean to flame you, but suggesting that Pitt shouldn't have been favored at home either means that you haven't watched them play, or that you don't understand what a conference home court means in basketball.

[thetrinity]

i punch kenpom in the face if i ever saw him

[thetrinity]

Kenny had Pitt by 6 tonight.



Check in, Kenny. Another stellar call. Vegas buried again on another bullshit "advanced stats" line.

i was at this game. teams didnt even look like they belonged on the same floor. duke got every shot they wanted every time in the 2nd half.

[CoachemUp]

i punch kenpom in the face if i ever saw him

Is there a reason?

[thetrinity]

Is there a reason?

cuz hes a clown that never played a sport in his life and knows nothing about them?

his lines are lol awful like coin has said many times

[thetrinity]

Kenny had Pitt by 6 tonight.



Check in, Kenny. Another stellar call. Vegas buried again on another bullshit "advanced stats" line.

youll be happy to know he has duke 4th and pitt 12th now.

[No coincidences]

As an admitted KenPom fan, I'm confused what the OP is getting at here?

If you're such a hero and Vegas is so dumb why would you:

A. Come on SBR and complain about this amazing edge you have.

and B. Not be sitting on a beach somewhere counting all the money you've made.


I don't mean to flame you, but suggesting that Pitt shouldn't have been favored at home either means that you haven't watched them play, or that you don't understand what a conference home court means in basketball.

Never said they shouldn't have been favored, but no reason for the line to be much more than Pitt -2 in this spot. Have you watched these two teams play this year?

[No coincidences]

youll be happy to know he has duke 4th and pitt 12th now.

What about Wisconsin? Year in and year out, he loves him some Badgers....

[CoachemUp]

cuz hes a clown that never played a sport in his life and knows nothing about them?

his lines are lol awful like coin has said many times

Again, so if his lines are awful, and Vegas essentially copies his lines, then what is this point of bashing him? Shouldn't you be off counting his money?

The old argument that "you must play a sport to know how to analyze it" is so played out its really too tired to even mention it. I suppose Billy Walters was a great NFL player and that's why he was such a good sports bettor?

You may bet on what you see, but the people who are successful in sports betting this century have been successful because they are gifted at putting together sophisticated models. Google haralabos voulgaris and read about what he's done in NBA betting.

[CoachemUp]

Never said they shouldn't have been favored, but no reason for the line to be much more than Pitt -2 in this spot. Have you watched these two teams play this year?

The opener was 3.5 so its not like this was some massive difference that is ludicrous.

Also you realize that he isn't individually picking each game and that its a formula as to what score he predicts? For instance in tomorrow's game he has Dawson and Payne starting for Michigan State. If he updated for injuries, don't you think his "line" would look a little different?

[thetrinity]

Again, so if his lines are awful, and Vegas essentially copies his lines, then what is this point of bashing him? Shouldn't you be off counting his money?

The old argument that "you must play a sport to know how to analyze it" is so played out its really too tired to even mention it. I suppose Billy Walters was a great NFL player and that's why he was such a good sports bettor?

You may bet on what you see, but the people who are successful in sports betting this century have been successful because they are gifted at putting together sophisticated models. Google haralabos voulgaris and read about what he's done in NBA betting.

ya he knows his ncaa basketball he has crieghton with 3 losses as number 2 as the nation, sounds real sharp to me, pitt with 0 top 50 rpi wins 12th after they got blitzkrieged at home.

a monkey could do a better job.

[thetrinity]

coin he has wisconsin 13th i think.

i just sent him a nice lengthy email why i think his systems a joke.

[CoachemUp]

ya he knows his ncaa basketball he has crieghton with 3 losses as number 2 as the nation, sounds real sharp to me, pitt with 0 top 50 rpi wins 12th after they got blitzkrieged at home.

a monkey could do a better job.

It's a complete statistical model. You make it sound like he's watching all of these teams and then making an opinion poll. He's not. Obviously when you build a statistical model its not going to be perfect. Do you really think his top 25 is worse then ESPN's poll? I don't.

If his rankings bother you so much then why do you pay attention? Just ignore it. Makes no sense to be angry about it.

[No coincidences]

The opener was 3.5 so its not like this was some massive difference that is ludicrous.

Also you realize that he isn't individually picking each game and that its a formula as to what score he predicts? For instance in tomorrow's game he has Dawson and Payne starting for Michigan State. If he updated for injuries, don't you think his "line" would look a little different?

My issue isn't with KenPom. He's an advanced stats guy with a lot of flaws in his system (i.e., favoring Wisconsin year in and year out). It is what it is. He doesn't claim to be a linesmaker.

My issue is with Vegas copying their lines from his score projections basically verbatim (like the Texas Tech example I posted). It's lazy and has resulted in the public opening the floodgates on college basketball. You used to be able to rely on oddsmakers' intelligence with a line like Texas Tech -1 vs. Oklahoma. It was typically that # for a reason. Now it's there just because KenPom said so.

[CoachemUp]

My issue isn't with KenPom. He's an advanced stats guy with a lot of flaws in his system (i.e., favoring Wisconsin year in and year out). It is what it is. He doesn't claim to be a linesmaker.

My issue is with Vegas copying their lines from his score projections basically verbatim (like the Texas Tech example I posted). It's lazy and has resulted in the public opening the floodgates on college basketball. You used to be able to rely on oddsmakers' intelligence with a line like Texas Tech -1 vs. Oklahoma. It was typically that # for a reason. Now it's there just because KenPom said so.

I really only look at his lines in games that are high on his "thrill score", as average or better teams in power conferences are the only games I'll look at, but my impression is that Vegas has a much more sophisticated model then you are giving them credit for.

KenPom has a place in the sports betting world, and many many people who take sports betting seriously use his line as a baseline and go to work from there. These are the people that Vegas needs to make lines for, so it would make sense to not stray far from it unless their model has something very different.

Just as an FYI looking at the past 96 games I've capped in the last 2 weeks, so a total of 192 sides possible, KenPom's model is 82-77 ATS. That is taking out games where he has a "tied" line with Vegas, so in other words 33 sides out of 192 were ties or 17%. Very small sample and it just depends when I'm inputting a line and if I update it on whether or not its a tie.

[No coincidences]

I really only look at his lines in games that are high on his "thrill score", as average or better teams in power conferences are the only games I'll look at, but my impression is that Vegas has a much more sophisticated model then you are giving them credit for.

KenPom has a place in the sports betting world, and many many people who take sports betting seriously use his line as a baseline and go to work from there. These are the people that Vegas needs to make lines for, so it would make sense to not stray far from it unless their model has something very different.

Just as an FYI looking at the past 96 games I've capped in the last 2 weeks, so a total of 192 sides possible, KenPom's model is 82-77 ATS. That is taking out games where he has a "tied" line with Vegas, so in other words 33 sides out of 192 were ties or 17%. Very small sample and it just depends when I'm inputting a line and if I update it on whether or not its a tie.

His totals and spreads are almost always within a single possession of Vegas' numbers. Do you think that's just a coincidence? I started noticing this three years ago, and the trend has continued into this season. Are you telling me that oddmakers and KenPom just happen to come up with nearly the exact same totals and sides for almost every single game?

[grease lightnin]

So Coiner, are you complaining about the lines and saying you can't pick winners because you're too smart?

[GoonSquad]

Again, so if his lines are awful, and Vegas essentially copies his lines, then what is this point of bashing him? Shouldn't you be off counting his money?

The old argument that "you must play a sport to know how to analyze it" is so played out its really too tired to even mention it. I suppose Billy Walters was a great NFL player and that's why he was such a good sports bettor?

You may bet on what you see, but the people who are successful in sports betting this century have been successful because they are gifted at putting together sophisticated models. Google haralabos voulgaris and read about what he's done in NBA betting.

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dol...op-nba-gambler

This is actually a nice read. What percentage of people on SBR use a sytem as opposed to being a "subjective bettor" ?

[CoachemUp]

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dol...op-nba-gambler

This is actually a nice read. What percentage of people on SBR use a sytem as opposed to being a "subjective bettor" ?

It appears as if most people on here are just feel betters as opposed to building models. I have tried to get help on building a model before but nobody responded.

I am going to Vegas for March Madness so I'm trying to get my model together in time for the tournament. so far I've been using KenPom numbers and then building off that and it seems to be going reasonably well.

[RonPaul2008]

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dol...op-nba-gambler

This is actually a nice read. What percentage of people on SBR use a sytem as opposed to being a "subjective bettor" ?

Thanks for the post, fascinating read.

[CommunistKevin]

Obviously ken Pom makes mistakes considering he picks EVERY game. Wow. It's terrible that he's not spot on