Originally Posted by
jtoler
Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Line aint meant to confuse you its to get balanced money even though that never happens. Just dont bet unless you feel you have an edge, people bet too many games thats a big problem. Just because its there doesnt mean you have to bet on it.[/QUOTE
I want to thank you for your input. Nobody said the line was meant to confuse. In fact, what I said is that on some games they set the line so there is no doubt which way the public will play. (See Aub. example above in previous post). I also agreed with you, in part that "most" lines were set right, which should get equal or close to the same amount of money on each side. However, books get loaded up on one side every week in certain games. This happens on about 5 or 6 games on any given Sat. in football. I booked for several years, and I know this as the truth and not what I perceive the truth to be. Other books in the area would have the same thing happen to them on the same games. Those are the games on which we made the bulk of our money, and those are the games that had "funny" lines. Our bettors might hit one or two a week, but we won all the others. You are missing the point that in some games, like the above mentioned Aub. game, the lines are set to insure that you take a particular side. Not so you will be confused and accidently take GA, which is why the line never went to Ga. -3 although everybody was taking Ga. This is what I call a trap. As for an edge, this has produced profits for me for 20 years. I don't think it is a coincidence that it has worked that long, and I am sure as hell not that lucky. Simply put, the line on some games are set to insure you take a particular side. My book told me he was pulling for me when I bet Aub. b/c he only had 4 bets on Aub. and the rest were on Ga. Suckers could not see the trap coming b/c they did not question the reason the line was so low. This process plays out every week in football and basketball.
Now that the game is over, look back at the Iowa v. Minn. gamed played yesterday. Both teams just played Ohio State, and both teams won by 10 pts. over Oh. St. I was looking for a number to come out below 5, but Iowa came out -9.5. Looked easy to take Minny getting that many points, especially as good as they had been playing recently. Furthermore, my book said he was loaded up on Minny. We both know how that worked out for Minn.
Also, you have stated that I am wrong, wrong and wrong about all of this. Yet, I have not heard any profound insight on how you determine your plays, only criticism on how I pick my plays.