I follow WCC basketball pretty closely, and I think there is money to be made with some of the lines that come out for this conference.
I'd be welcome to discuss these games and the conference with anyone else who has taken an interest in it in order to have a better chance of succeeding.
I'll be tracking my plays this season and updating here.
All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated.
Lets see how it goes shall we?
Starting record: 0-0
January 4th: Things are a little topsy turvy in the WCC right now with teams playing very inconsistently so I'm just playing one game today.
Loyola Marymount +3.5 vs. Santa Clara
LMU is the better team plain and simple, Santa Clara has nobody who can match up with Anthony Ireland, yet is favored because it's a home game I guess? The fact of the matter is that students aren't in school right now so the already crappy crowd that would have been in attendance will be even crappier.
The LMU - Santa Clara game went to OT unfortunately and then LMU laid and egg in the extra frame. I still feel good about that pick however and feel like it was definitely the right play.
The SMC game went about as expected, there are definitely three distinct tiers of teams in the WCC, Saint Marys is on that second tier.
BYU -15.5 vs. Pepperdine - My initial reaction was that this was too many points, but there is some weird reverse line movement on this game with 67% of the public being on the Waves. This game is in Salt Lake City, and a return match of the game in Mailbu which Pepperdine shocked the Cougars and beat them. 15.5 point favorites against a team that beat you 11 days ago.... Trap! The Cougars looked much better last game when they took it to San Diego big time, look for them to come out and make a statement this game and work Pepperdine from the opening tip. As an aside BYU should end up in the 80s or 90s in this game, meaning Pepperdine would need to score at a good clip. 160 is a big number and under is the play here I think. Though I'm not sure if I'm going to bet the line yet.
Santa Clara +13 vs. Saint Marys
Simply put, I'm not sold on Saint Marys, I don't see them as being 13 points better than Santa Clara. They look absolutely terrible lately and are still missing their head coach for this and one more game. Saint Marys wins, but this is too many points.
LMU +4 vs. San Diego
Both of these teams are fricking up and down more than a Thai hooker. I don't have a real good sense of which team will show up at all. My gut says LMU and Ireland with the points and maybe even straight up. Give me the points.
SF +3.5 vs. Pacific
Another game with streaky teams, this spread feels about perfect to me. If I had to bet this game I suppose I'd say that these teams are about equal. Pacific is at home, not sure how big of an influence that will have on them since I've not seen enough of their home games. Anyone have insight? As of now, I'm not betting this game.
Gonzaga -9 vs. Portland (Won't bet if Karnoski isn't playing)
Gonzaga is flat out the best team in the conference (again) and on any other night is certainly more than 9 points better than Portland. Gonzaga is hurting right now. 5 of their usual top 6 are ailing... Stockton is recovering from the flu, Dower is recovering from a pretty nasty lower back thing (and got food poisoning from Chipotle) Pangos is still fighting turf toe, and Karnoski now has the flu and is questionable. Bell is out with a broken hand.
Gonzaga still wins, their 8, 9 and 10 are better than pretty much every Portland starter. But... the question is, how well do they gel? And does putting the walk on scrubs in at the end of the game mush up the line? If Karnoski plays, I'll take Gonzaga giving the points, if not then I wont bet the game. (i'll post an update if I hear anything before the game.
BOL folks
Last edited by magsmeplease; 01-09-14 at 09:25 PM.
Reason: Ended up taking SF though not that confident.
Pangos is playing through his injury and has been for the past 5 or so games, it's just not getting better because turf toe doesn't get any better unless it's rested. That's why he's scoring at a lower clip than the start of the year.
yea for some reason I thought bell was out for an extended period but forgot why. I was just gonna take the moneyline but im nervous they may get clipped tonight. I dont know how but im nervous to touch this. Same with the Oregon game.
With as banged up as they are it's entirely possible. But their bench is better than Portlands starters and though this will probably be Portlands only sold out game, it's not that intimidating of an environment as far as the WCC goes.
They may not cover, but I really can't see them getting beaten straight up.
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