I don't always bet full game totals & win, but then I do ... I like them to stick out like a sore thumb.
Utah-Texas State Over 131 (9pm ET) You're not looking at two run & gun types here as together they average around 135 possessions per game. However, you have a good combo of efficient offense and leaky defense to elevate at least one part of the equation. Utah averages right around 85 ppg on a whopping 52% from the field. Texas State may only be giving up 70 ppg, but it comes on nearly 50% shooting - so the Utes should be in tune to put up a total in the mid 70s or much better. Oppositely, Texas State barely averages 63 ppg on just 43% shooting. That should jive right with Utah's stingy 64 ppg average on defense at right around 40%. The plus if you look at Utah's games is that even on their best night, the opposition put up at least 54 points and has topped 57 or more in seven straight. Texas State laid an egg vs. Texas with just 53 pts, but gave up 85 in their last contest. Prior to that though, the Bobcats had actually done decently with 70+ in four straight. I'm not expecting a big effort from Texas State on offense, but given their defensive issues + Utah's efficient offense ... I think if Texas State gets 55 or more, Utah is fully capable of doing the majority of the work. This one just stuck on like the sore thumb because Utah looks a good bet to get anywhere from 75-85 and that leaves Texas State with only about 56 points of work to be done at minimum through my fantastic estimational skills. The preceeding word dump was approved by Chuck Norris.
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