[accuscoresucks]

So how many plays has this been so far and are you considering a parlay one play each?

You held off on betting for 3 years or what? I didn't even know that could be considered an option.

this is the 12th play started with a$100 bankroll set aside for projects like these
it could take more than 52plays this is my first parlay with the syastem dont plan on parlaying anymore.
1 thing to remember being conservative also is their are about 200-300 of these type wagers over the course of the college season ncaaf,ncaab college hoops offer way better roi plays vs ncaaf...even at the crappy rate of 2% a little over 100 plays will get the same results but i dont even expect to get to 80 the roi#s will change for the better
the key to this whole thing is very simple
example]lets say last years lsu team played new mexico in ncaaf 100 times in a row with 1 day breaks inbeetween
id say new mexico would win approx 1% or 1 game and that win would more likely come at the end once they have devised a stradegy from losing so many times.so the trick is to get in and get out long before the odds catch up to you

[tobydicesare]

nybigapple...I am not a math guy like yourself...but understand the first equation, just not the second....with...
(Chance of winning 52 times in a row with your given 93% accuracy, which I don't necessarily agree with is 2.3%)

How do you figure this out.....and with regards the first equation...could you explain it in lamens terms/a math idiot...I love the math behind things and probably should take some math classes as an adult to understand future values, scientific notation, etc., again....maybe might go back to a community college for math(seriously) just to get a handle on these...but for now...I need your expertise.

Thanks.

[tobydicesare]

Heavy Moneylines are great to bet in Las Vegas...little known Cal Neva(sportsbook in the back of Binion's) had great moneyline wagers through the past handful of years...(now William Hill)....hope that they will honor the Cal Neva put anything up philosophy....For example, the heaviest lines I took last year were Oklahoma(dont remember which week or game off hand), but know it was -30000, I put 45,000 on it to win $150, did Alabama 40,000 to win $500, another game at -42500, they were there, so I did it....and sure one out of every so many games loses with heavy money lines, but as a statistical matter, (and I am not a mathematical genius here), you can develop an esy system where 90% of your games hit....the other 10% is gambling and if you can learn a little about the game/football you can increase your % take from the house. It's a great way to wager....and a great way to build bankroll...just dont get greedy or bored with money literally pouring out of your drawers in your home/business etc., and begin to make "lazy, uninformed" wagers or just "play for fun" b/c as soon as you do you break your own rules...the house will comeback and bite you and sooner you know it, the sooner you will lose 10, 25, 50, 100 thousand plus. It may sound a little strange, but when stacks of money stare at you a long time, people start to act a little foolish. Remember, with your money, you hold the power. Don't lose the power once you got it.....

[venture]

Heavy Moneylines are great to bet in Las Vegas...little known Cal Neva(sportsbook in the back of Binion's) had great moneyline wagers through the past handful of years...(now William Hill)....hope that they will honor the Cal Neva put anything up philosophy....For example, the heaviest lines I took last year were Oklahoma(dont remember which week or game off hand), but know it was -30000, I put 45,000 on it to win $150, did Alabama 40,000 to win $500, another game at -42500, they were there, so I did it....and sure one out of every so many games loses with heavy money lines, but as a statistical matter, (and I am not a mathematical genius here), you can develop an esy system where 90% of your games hit....the other 10% is gambling and if you can learn a little about the game/football you can increase your % take from the house. It's a great way to wager....and a great way to build bankroll...just dont get greedy or bored with money literally pouring out of your drawers in your home/business etc., and begin to make "lazy, uninformed" wagers or just "play for fun" b/c as soon as you do you break your own rules...the house will comeback and bite you and sooner you know it, the sooner you will lose 10, 25, 50, 100 thousand plus. It may sound a little strange, but when stacks of money stare at you a long time, people start to act a little foolish. Remember, with your money, you hold the power. Don't lose the power once you got it.....

WOW this is bad. You are realy betting 45k to win $150 bucks, WHY? .003% return on your money and all your money is at risk. either you are lying or you are stupid. I'm sorry there is no other way to put it.

[accuscoresucks]

WOW this is bad. You are realy betting 45k to win $150 bucks, WHY? .003% return on your money and all your money is at risk. either you are lying or you are stupid. I'm sorry there is no other way to put it.

you tell me any institution where you get a .min. 8.4% return[roi] per month for 6 months out of the year?
oh i forgot to mention using proper exploited money management,and hedge verticals ,guarantees a profit

[Louisvillekid1]

GL, good experiment...

[tobydicesare]

Well, the return on my money was ok for 2.5 hours....a safe bet. A win is a win no matter how small! I wasn't risking all of my money, just a portion of it. The bets like these took place at Cal Neva, the previous handful of years....by the way, the only book in the ENTIRE COUNTRY, that had super heavy lines like that....not even the Las Vegas Hilton (now LVH) would put those moneylines up.....they typically stop at 28 points for college football on the moneyline aspect of it....also, Jay Kornegay always jacks up the heavy favorites so there is no value in the bets for others like me (heavy moneyline players). This is an example of an extreme bet, that I only do maybe 10 times a season. If you have better ideas on what you think would be a safe play or other alternative things, I would love to hear them.

[Caser1356]

because this guy is a solid capper, i am going to follow him in this project. i'm sure i'll miss a few games as i won't know exactly the time of day he posts his play but i think it's worth a shot

Its not a bad shot to risk $100... if u go 10-0 u double ur money... smart move at that time is to take the 100 and bank it, then play with the bookies $$$$

First dont lay against Wash. St. vs BYU, Washinston St. will give BYU a run...Could even win the game. They improved alot, new coach ( who brought the T am passing game to a whole new level).

Dont lay on Texas AM becuz that too they have a new QB, lot people on the line, along with a couple good recieevers.

So when trying this method stick to the people who need to win the games, The OSU, USC, Central Flordia,Minn, Rutgers, Washington... Which where you guys bet these games money line is what i need to know lol... (minn. u can make a case to lay off, but I wouldnt believe u, there coming out to win that game, now pts...who knows with minn., they play down to the level most of the time, but they come away with a "W"

[tobydicesare]

Nice thoughts on here. I think, when gambling, it comes down to perceived risk and what is given back as a reward (amount of money). If you think wagering $550 to win $500 with -14 points is good, then go for it, but it is not for me...I try to play it safe....doesnt always work out, but at least I can say I stuck with a plan that works most of the time....remember, it is not about the single individual game, but the overall bankroll that matters at the end of the season and if your bills are paid and your faced to rent a car back to your home state b/c Vegas gave you too much to pass through the airport and the TSA, then your on the right track.

[accuscoresucks]

let the games begin

[Tanko]

Ok. Accuscoresux... we anxiously await your next pick. It is entertaining watching this process. I really hope you make it the entire way.

Good luck w/

2 team parlay
ncaaf week#1
florida-8000
oklahoma-12500
roi 2.1%

[CheckYaPulse]

What book gives ML's that big?

[accuscoresucks]

What book gives ML's that big?

5 dimes

new balance $216.52


next plays coming soon

[accuscoresucks]

new balance $216.52/play#13
michigan st. -2400/4.2% roi
i do like texas but it doesnt pay,and staying away from future parlays
even if it means passing a couple weeks

[accuscoresucks]

ugggggg
line is down 2 -1700 didnt see it going nothing but higher

[nvrlose37]

ugggggg
line is down 2 -1700 didnt see it going nothing but higher

Same here, I'm surprised money is going to Central Mich. Good luck, that game is my top pick.

[accuscoresucks]

no worries onto play 14 tbd

[accuscoresucks]

new balance
225.61
play#14
does tiger woods win bmw championship hell no
field wins bmw championship yes @ -1440[7%]roi
l

[Hustler11]

would've been fun if you took arkansas ml tonight

[accuscoresucks]

would've been fun if you took arkansas ml tonight

actually u.monroe-vs-ark is a auto scratch cause they are above the 100-125 mark

[accuscoresucks]

241.40 new balance
play 15 tbd

[accuscoresucks]

pass this week
only plays that qualified where
lsu,georgia,wv,s.carolina
obv lines are 2 high not parlaying either ,stay disciplined

[accuscoresucks]

241.40 new balance
play 15
louisville -500/20%roi
and it qualifies

[agendaman]

you truly have a long winding road ahead

[GimpedMaster]

This is fascinating

[Bdolan33]

what are the plays for week 3

[IMSaints]

Is there a limit on how much one could bet on Moneyline?

[accuscoresucks]

Is there a limit on how much one could bet on Moneyline?

online yes can vary alot depends on the book

[accuscoresucks]

new balance
289.68

this next play does not count its a shot worth taking
tiger woods wins the tour championship/+1215/risking 7.68 to win 93.31
actually the new balance is now 282
the proper way 2 play the above would be to allocate more funds[divided eq.],make 3 plays with 2 lines above +315
i am just lonshoting here

[accuscoresucks]

282 balance
play 16
fresno state/13%/roi/@-800

[accuscoresucks]

318.66 new balance
play 17
arizona state/5%/roi/@-2000

[testertips]

Which power rankings do you use?

[accuscoresucks]

team rankings,statfox,my own model software

[kosti]

accu....are you mainly looking at rankings? What qualifies as a play for you and what doesn't when it comes to heavy fav's (I'm assuming there are some heavy fav's that you pass on). I read all posts and may have missed it but didn't see it.

[accuscoresucks]

334.59 new balance
play 18
mississippi state/-1250/8%/roi
kosti just trying not to loose tops against bottom teams