1. #36
    You mad bro
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    3 ball=3point shooting

    Team Conf 3P% 2P% FT% Blk% Stl% A% 3PA%
    Connecticut Amer 46.5 1 50.5 125 72.2 97 4.3 4 8.6 158 52.9 127 34.6 116
    Indiana St. MVC 45.6 2 50.2 131 79.7 5 11.3 262 8.8 185 53.8 111 31.8 181
    Colgate Pat 45.6 3 55.6 21 71.3 124 6.3 31 8.8 181 61.8 17 47.8 4
    Gonzaga WCC 45.2 4 55.5 23 72.9 77 6.3 32 7.1 42 52.2 141 35.1 106
    Creighton BE 44.2 5 53.3 53 71.0 135 11.3 264 6.9 29 65.1 5 44.5 15
    Rider MAAC 44.0 6 47.2 223 75.5 32 7.5 73 6.2 14 44.4 291 31.5 193
    Virginia Tech ACC 43.9 7 46.4 247 71.2 126 10.5 219 8.3 130 50.0 188 36.2 87
    UC Santa Barbara BW 43.9 8 56.9 12 69.1 183 5.9 21 7.9 96 64.5 6 35.8 91
    Oregon P12 43.4 9 57.5 5 75.3 37 7.0 55 7.2 44 56.0 77 32.4 169
    Bucknell Pat 43.4 10 48.5 181 79.0 6 11.5 269 7.0 36 50.7 175 29.6 241
    West Virginia B12 42.7 11 49.5 153 67.4 233 7.5 68 5.9 9 51.4 160 35.2 103
    George Washington A10 42.6 12 48.5 182 70.7 147 8.9 146 8.6 166 57.0 63 25.7 307
    Duke ACC 42.1 13 57.1 7 73.7 58 9.1 153 7.7 79 55.1 91 35.1 105
    Saint Mary's WCC 42.1 14 51.1 100 75.4 35 8.7 132 9.6 242 62.2 14 32.3 170
    Idaho St. BSky 41.8 15 42.6 320 69.7 169 17.0 345 9.5 234 44.9 282 23.8 332
    BYU WCC 41.7 16 49.9 137 68.7 200 9.3 165 8.0 101 57.7 52 20.3 349
    Wyoming MWC 41.4 17 52.4 67 71.1 132 9.6 176 5.7 5 60.6 25 36.7 77
    San Diego St. MWC 41.3 18 43.0 312 71.6 113 9.5 171 7.2 43 39.4 332 24.5 323
    SMU Amer 41.3 19 53.8 44 69.3 175 6.4 33 11.1 311 60.7 24 23.6 335
    Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 41.1 20 46.3 250 64.6 296 8.7 134 12.0 339 51.0 167 33.8 136
    my bad billy

    good shit lol

  2. #37
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by azsportswin View Post
    Don't be fooled, this team is very focused right now. But, Mich is very difficult place to play. Agree with others posting here, should be a close game which means may come down to who can make their FT's. Mich almost 75% vs Az 66% y-t-d. Aaron Gordon is a train wreck on the foul line right now. Az bigs (Zues and Ashley) have tendency to get into foul trouble. If it does come down to calls and who can convert their foul shots, advantage Michigan. Personally, I'm just looking forward to watching this game!
    Michigan flat out does not send it's opponents to the line at all. Nor do they get fouled. They are a perimeter team.

    Chalky hit it right on the only way Arizona loses is if they turn it over.

  3. #38
    ChalkyDog
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    Arizona's Starting Lineup:

    C - Zeuski, 7'0"
    PF - Ashley 6'9"
    SF - Gordon 6'8
    SG - N. Johnson 6'3"
    PG - TJ McConnell 6'1"

    Bench:

    G - Gabe York 6'3"
    F/G - Rondae Hollis-Jerfferson 6'7"

    Michigan Starting lineup:

    C - McGary 6'10"
    F - GRIII 6'6"
    G - Stauskas 6'6"
    G - LeVert 6'6"
    G - Walton Jr. 6'1"

    Bench

    G/F - Irvin 6'6"
    G - Albrect 5'11"


    ----

    Michigan has been preparing for Arizona's size by shooting over brooms, and have spent a lot more time than usual on rebounding fundamentals.

  4. #39
    billysink
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    Bro I write like I talk sometimes. I read my shit the next day and I got no fukkin clue what I said

  5. #40
    You mad bro
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Bro I write like I talk sometimes. I read my shit the next day and I got no fukkin clue what I said
    lmao its all good pal

    thanks for clearing it up

    was going to say that is something jjgold would say about sdsu being a top 3 team

  6. #41
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Bro I write like I talk sometimes. I read my shit the next day and I got no fukkin clue what I said
    hey billy, not sure what slang you use but i have no clue what you say half of the time.

    you're probably saying something meaningful but it's all good pal.

  7. #42
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by You mad bro View Post
    lmao its all good pal

    thanks for clearing it up

    was going to say that is something jjgold would say about sdsu being a top 3 team
    Damn.

    Glad I cleared that up.

  8. #43
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    michigan struggles against big physical teams.

    arizona struggled vs unlv.

    arizona's big and physical, michigan style of basketball is similar to unlv.

    who the fukk knows, maybe they both struggle and under is the right play.

  9. #44
    You mad bro
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Damn.

    Glad I cleared that up.
    yeah man dont wanna be in the same "area" with that clown

  10. #45
    You mad bro
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post
    michigan struggles against big physical teams.

    arizona struggled vs unlv.

    arizona's big and physical, michigan style of basketball is similar to unlv.

    who the fukk knows, maybe they both struggle and under is the right play.
    or maybe the game is postponed and the game will be played in 3 weeks and we can worry about it then

  11. #46
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post
    hey billy, not sure what slang you use but i have no clue what you say half of the time.

    you're probably saying something meaningful but it's all good pal.
    Khaner my 4 official languages are English, 70's malt liquor neighborhood, too many fukkin Brandies or Beer and Bud.

    Most of the fukkin time it ain't worth payin any mind anyway.

    I meant to say somethin maybe.

    fukkin old here whadda ya want for cheap.

  12. #47
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post
    michigan struggles against big physical teams.

    arizona struggled vs unlv.

    arizona's big and physical, michigan style of basketball is similar to unlv.

    who the fukk knows, maybe they both struggle and under is the right play.
    good point.

    Ima look closer at that UNLV game.

  13. #48
    Inkwell77
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    I was wrong on the Arizona vs Duke game and am wrong here again. Michigan home court looks to be worth like 6 or 7 points here, because Arizona on a neutral would be like -5.

    Michigan is a middle of the road tourney team and Arizona is a contender. Arizona will lose a game or two, no doubt, but betting Michigan here doesn't make sense imo.

    Arizona went into SDSU and won and that homecourt is just as strong as Michigan. Tarczewski impacts Mcgary and I believe every other matchup favors zona.

    Stauskas has been weak in big games, especially against athletic teams, and he seems to be their leader this year.

  14. #49
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    I usually think I have good grasp on Michigan games, but no clue here. Glen Robinson Jr ever going to show up in a game? Everyone says he's a future NBA player, but just don't see it in him or McGary. This team seems so lost without Burke and Hardaway this year. No "closer" on the team at all at this point. Stauskas has nice shot(as a catch and shooter) but he is such a liability on D against good teams it is pretty much a wash .

  15. #50
    jjgold
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    Arizona looks too easy here
    What the hell am I my missing
    Just put another 25 on Arizona

  16. #51
    TheMoneyShot
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    All I'm saying is... Arizona looks like they would kick your a$$ while sleeping. Michigan is 20X better at home than on the road. The team isn't the same without the guards they use to have. Arizona strong in almost any fashion... especially outside. The only way they lose... they fear the atmosphere at Michigan. Spread clearly indicates a trap. Michigan should win (based on spread only)... but I don't see how?

  17. #52
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by azsportswin View Post
    Don't be fooled, this team is very focused right now. But, Mich is very difficult place to play. Agree with others posting here, should be a close game which means may come down to who can make their FT's. Mich almost 75% vs Az 66% y-t-d. Aaron Gordon is a train wreck on the foul line right now. Az bigs (Zues and Ashley) have tendency to get into foul trouble. If it does come down to calls and who can convert their foul shots, advantage Michigan. Personally, I'm just looking forward to watching this game!
    Thanks for your insight! Everything I cap is by eyesight which obviously makes things tough. Just seems like they were cruising in a couple efforts.

  18. #53
    thebestthereis
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    If AP rankings were predictive, it would be #1 Arizona vs. #17 or so Michigan.
    I understand the rankings and the meaningless number they can be at times. this scenario i have never seen as the ap rankings sit right now. no clue about the exact details, but not sure if anyone can find the #1 ranked team as an underdog vs an unranked team at -2 like this. home court is huge in college as some teams are almost unbeatable at home regardless of opponent but this just looks very weird. not gonna touch this but it is the definition of trap if there ever was one.

  19. #54
    billysink
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    I think perhaps the books have overvalued homecourt here. We have nothing to go by at all this year and this is clearly not last years team. Michigan has not yet played a home game worth looking at.

    History does not always quantify from year to year.

  20. #55
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    I think perhaps the books have overvalued homecourt here. We have nothing to go by at all this year and this is clearly not last years team. Michigan has not yet played a home game worth looking at.

    History does not always quantify from year to year.
    This right here is the best and most plausible explanation for the line that I have seen.

    If you think Michigan home court is worth that many points, fine. If not - a play on Arizona would follow.

    As far as the under, it should be low scoringish, IMO. Especially compared to what these teams average. I expect it to be in the 135ish range though. I don't see a posted total yet.

  21. #56
    Vegas39
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    AZ +2 waiting on totals as chalky said

  22. #57
    TeeRose
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    Arizona all the way, if it was last year, I would of said Michigan.

  23. #58
    No coincidences
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    Early start time may have something to do with it, along with Michigan actually being a Top-15 caliber team despite the fact that they are currently unranked.

    That, or KenPom has Michigan by 1 and Vegas just copied his number like they typically do.

  24. #59
    CheeseHead
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Early start time may have something to do with it, along with Michigan actually being a Top-15 caliber team despite the fact that they are currently unranked.

    That, or KenPom has Michigan by 1 and Vegas just copied his number like they typically do.
    Agree with what No coin said on this.... And actually it looks like normal line movement right now... opened at Michigan -2, down to -1.5, now down to -1 with about 60% of bets on Arizona. Am I seeing that correctly? So it's not as if Vegas opened the line this way and Arizona all of a sudden got 90% of the bets. Michigan has played pretty poorly so far though and Arizona seems legit. This is a game I originally wanted to get on Michigan as well but wow, can I anymore? I'm over-thinking this game at this point probably.

  25. #60
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by CheeseHead View Post
    Agree with what No coin said on this.... And actually it looks like normal line movement right now... opened at Michigan -2, down to -1.5, now down to -1 with about 60% of bets on Arizona. Am I seeing that correctly? So it's not as if Vegas opened the line this way and Arizona all of a sudden got 90% of the bets. Michigan has played pretty poorly so far though and Arizona seems legit. This is a game I originally wanted to get on Michigan as well but wow, can I anymore? I'm over-thinking this game at this point probably.
    You either bet Michigan or nothing here. Long term, that's a winning strategy. Michigan is still a legitimate team. Just off to a slow start and adjusting to life without Burke. McGary, Stauskas, LeVert, Robinson, etc. These kids are all solid players.

  26. #61
    CheeseHead
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You either bet Michigan or nothing here. Long term, that's a winning strategy. Michigan is still a legitimate team. Just off to a slow start and adjusting to life without Burke. McGary, Stauskas, LeVert, Robinson, etc. These kids are all solid players.
    I agree...if Michigan hadn't been struggling so far they are probably favored by around 4 or so here. I'll either be on Michigan or laying off completely. Probably can get Michigan at PK tomorrow...if you want Arizona, now is still probably a good time I'd think. You going to have any action on this game?

  27. #62
    Cuse0323
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You either bet Michigan or nothing here. Long term, that's a winning strategy. Michigan is still a legitimate team. Just off to a slow start and adjusting to life without Burke. McGary, Stauskas, LeVert, Robinson, etc. These kids are all solid players.
    Or you take who is going to win the game. Which will be Zona.

  28. #63
    CheeseHead
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cuse0323 View Post
    Or you take who is going to win the game. Which will be Zona.
    Arizona's legit. The better team does not always win. There's a reason it is hard to be profitable betting on sports. Lots of other factors... It's not like Michigan all of sudden has bad players or hurt....the line would be different.

  29. #64
    Cuse0323
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    Quote Originally Posted by CheeseHead View Post
    Arizona's legit. The better team does not always win. There's a reason it is hard to be profitable betting on sports. Lots of other factors... It's not like Michigan all of sudden has bad players or hurt....the line would be different.
    That's great and all but you're guessing that Michigan will play to the top of their ability and Zona will not. Too much reading into this game when things are laid right out for you. Michigan is struggling to figure out themselves this year and Zona has their identity. I'll take my chances with the team that has it figured out over the team you hope gets it figured out. GL

  30. #65
    CheeseHead
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cuse0323 View Post
    That's great and all but you're guessing that Michigan will play to the top of their ability and Zona will not. Too much reading into this game when things are laid right out for you. Michigan is struggling to figure out themselves this year and Zona has their identity. I'll take my chances with the team that has it figured out over the team you hope gets it figured out. GL
    Actually I think if both of them play to the best of their ability, with other factors like having home court - Michigan will still win. What worries me is how poorly Michigan is playing and Arizona probably has the better shot of actually showing up tomorrow.

  31. #66
    TheMoneyShot
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    Chalky - The more I analyze this game... if Michigan was at Arizona... the line should be Arizona -7 or -7.5. Possibly even more. Michigan is now -2 at some Vegas books now. There is really something up with this game... and a national broadcast on CBS also? You got me sold. I'm taking Michigan tomorrow. Thanks man

  32. #67
    Darkside Magick
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    Coin toss but going with:

    3* - [521] Arizona +1 -110 vs Michigan

    GL

  33. #68
    Jayvegas420
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    Beat SD St. & UNLV & "DUKE".......
    then lose to a Trey Burkeless & Hardaway Jr.less Michigan team?
    I just can't see it.

    If these two teams were meeting today & it was the Sweet 16 instead of December, I can't see an openning line like this.
    All things considered the same as today, the Cats would be -5.5 maybe 6.5 at a neutral site.

  34. #69
    TheMoneyShot
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    I don't know if these stats are accurate or not? But if they aren't... my bad. But they are kind of interesting. According to this website...

    Michigan is averaging 89 points scoring at Home this year. Which is Ranked T-26th in the NCAA out of 351 teams.
    Michigan is allowing 49.8 points a game at Home this year. Which is Ranked 4th in the NCAA out of 351 teams.

    Arizona is averaging 69 points scoring on the Road this year. Which is Ranked T-178th in the NCAA out of 351 teams.
    Arizona is allowing 62.7 points a game on the Road this year. Which is Ranked 13th in the NCAA out of 351 teams.

    Just food for thought.

  35. #70
    CheeseHead
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    I don't know if these stats are accurate or not? But if they aren't... my bad. But they are kind of interesting. According to this website...

    Michigan is averaging 89 points scoring at Home this year. Which is Ranked T-26th in the NCAA out of 351 teams.
    Michigan is allowing 49.8 points a game at Home this year. Which is Ranked 4th in the NCAA out of 351 teams.

    Arizona is averaging 69 points scoring on the Road this year. Which is Ranked T-178th in the NCAA out of 351 teams.
    Arizona is allowing 62.7 points a game on the Road this year. Which is Ranked 13th in the NCAA out of 351 teams.

    Just food for thought.
    Arizona's only played one true road game. Those stats appear to include their 2 neutral court games as well. I'm hoping no one is making a bet based on this..

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