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I have been following you. Like the picks. I don't know what your starting bankroll was but something I like to do is adjust every week or every two weeks what every you prefer. I use 5%bets of my bankroll. Started the season with $200 bankroll and $10 bet now I'm at $450 with $20 bets, hope to bet at $25 next week
I try and keep unit size at about 2% of my roll as a general rule. If I put all my wealth in to this right now I could do $100 units like I want to, but I'm not the type of person to risk enough that bad losses would have an impact on my lifestyle. If I get a couple more winning nights I will probably bump the bet size up to 10
Yea that's safer especially when your are trying a new system. Gl to ya. I'll be tailing you. Lets bash them bookies.
No plays tonight, just leans. Maryland -2, Florida Atlantic +11.5. Neither of these are that good
I've got a $5 bet on Maryland -1.5. It is not an official thread play, I just want something to entertain me in the background while I work.
Finished all my shit about an hour ago. Haven't really slept much in a few days, trying to rush out these picks. At first glance it looks like the lines are pretty tight tonight...Might need some grease to make a pick
Day 10
Dec-13
Alright guys under my normal standards there would be no picks. Iowa+4.5 is pretty close to a pick, but not quite. Normally I prefer finding games where its good to take the dog +big points, but tonight I took Memphis-22.5 over the rock pile. Didn't have times to monitor lines today, so got them at an even worse price than normal. I should be getting the upper leg on the Saturday games, but it is more than likely that I'm just gonna burn out, hit some bowls, and watch a little ball instead
THESE PICKS ARE NOT UP TO THE GREASE KING STANDARD, BUT I'M MAKING THEM ANYWAYS!
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Iowa State vs. Iowa Iowa +4.5 5.5 5 Arkansas LR vs. Memphis Memphis-22.5 5.5 5 Total: 11 10 0 0 0 0
Last edited by Grease King; 12-13-13 at 06:58 PM.
day 10: Results
one win one loss tonight. Even(0.500) win loss nights are a good reminder of why the bookie always wins in the end against the masses. Winning half the time will still lose you money. I am probably going to start giving up half points and full points on the spread in order to get better odds when it is efficient to do so. It should be more efficient if done efficiently. Trying to talk myself in to sorting through all of Saturdays games and getting some proper picks made...
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Iowa State vs. Iowa Iowa +4.5 5.5 5 1 1 5 Arkansas LR vs. Memphis Memphis-22.5 5.5 5 1 -1.1 -5.5 Total: 11 10 1 1 -0.1 -0.5
Thread to date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 22 17 7.386 31.93 Win %= 56.4102564
Day 11
Dec-14(day games)
Missed all types of value today, lines had moved by the time I was done calculating. Still pretty tired from the last few days. Should be able to make the rest of tonights picks properly now that I have some time on my hands
I missed Wichita -6, took it at -7
I missed Cal Riverside +7.5, took it at +7
I missed Belmont -2, bought the extra half point to keep it at -2
After today I will take the time to do things properly, no more running around scrambling to make my picks. Here is the excel so far today...There will be more by the night
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Old dominion vs. Georgia state Old D +9 5 5.05 Belmont vs. South Dakota state Belmont -2 10.75 10 Cal Riverside vs. Air Force Cal +7 5.3 5 Tennessee vs. Wichita state Wichita state -7 5.45 5
These picks are decent but not great... Time to get some positive gambling energy flowing in this thread to get my teams to victory. After today we are gonna pound the bookies every Saturday
Last edited by Grease King; 12-14-13 at 01:34 PM.
Day 10: full card
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Old dominion vs. Georgia state Old D +9 5 5.05 1 5.05 Belmont vs. South Dakota state Belmont -2 10.75 10 SIU Edwardsville vs. IPFW IPFW -11 5.1 5 Furman vs. Clemson Clemson -21.5 5.1 5 Jacksonville state vs. Dartmouth Dartmouth -4.5 5.3 5 New Mexico vs. Kansas state New Mexico +7.5 5.3 5 Fresno state vs. California Fresno+14 5.3 5 Cal Riverside vs. Air Force Cal +7 5.3 5 Tennessee vs. Wichita state Wichita state -7 5.45 5 1 5 Total: 52.6 50.05 2 0 0 10.05
Here is the final card for the day (2 wins already)
Last edited by Grease King; 12-14-13 at 04:10 PM.
Day 11: Results
Post above should read day 10
6-3 today, I'll take it. Lost the big one, and the juice at all my profits, but still a good night
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Old dominion vs. Georgia state Old D +9 5 5.05 1 5.05 Belmont vs. South Dakota state Belmont -2 10.75 10 1 -10.75 SIU Edwardsville vs. IPFW IPFW -11 5.1 5 1 5 Furman vs. Clemson Clemson -21.5 5.1 5 1 5 Jacksonville state vs. Dartmouth Dartmouth -4.5 5.3 5 1 5 New Mexico vs. Kansas state New Mexico +7.5 5.3 5 1 -5.3 Fresno state vs. California Fresno+14 5.3 5 1 5 Cal Riverside vs. Air Force Cal +7 5.3 5 1 -5.3 Tennessee vs. Wichita state Wichita state -7 5.45 5 1 5 Total: 52.6 50.05 6 3 0 8.7
Thread to date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 28 20 7.386 40.63 Win %= 58.3333333
Day 12
Dec-15
Only one play today, and its a more aggressive one than normal. I'm taking Wyoming on the money line, and Wyoming +3. Mostly watching foosball today but still checked out the ncaab
Looks like the only play of the day is going to go away soon. Grab Illinois state +5 before the line goes away
Day 13
Dec-16
Yesterday I only picked one game. The spread pushed and the money line lost. I will include yesterdays pick as part of today's to make accounting a little easier.
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Wyoming vs. Denver Wyoming ML 5 7.1 1 -1 -5 Illinois state vs. Oakland Illinois +5 11 10 0 Gardner Webb vs. Duke Gardner Webb +25.5 10.1 10 0 Total: 26.1 27.1 0 1 -1 -5
Day 14: Results
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Wyoming vs. Denver Wyoming ML 5 7.1 1 -1 -5 Illinois state vs. Oakland Illinois +5 11 10 1 -2.2 -11 Gardner Webb vs. Duke Gardner Webb +25.5 10.1 10 1 2 10 Total: 26.1 27.1 1 2 -1.2 -6
Thread to Date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 29 22 7.926 34.63 Win %= 56.8627451
After two weeks of posts I am not thrilled with the results, but I really can't complain. I would like my win rate to be closer to 60%, but above 55 is just fine for now. I am not going to go too in to depth on my numbers and results until 100 games have been picked.
Last edited by Grease King; 12-17-13 at 03:51 PM.
So far I only have one game that looks good tonight (Belmont +5).
On a side note, there is a decent chance I am going to start working with a programmer I know to develop my concepts, and then track multiple concepts. By tracking multiple concepts, I can either select the best one, or use a combination of them(based on success rates) to form a final concept. It is a lot of work, and without a winning season behind me, it is hard to convince myself that it would be worth it. I do like the idea of having a computer essentially make winning picks for me for the rest of my life...But that kind of sounds like a far fetched dream.
Have you ever checked out the "Expert Picks" on CBSsports.com? I'm pretty sure it's similar to what you are trying to achieve. Just figured I'd throw it out there as a reference
It may be similar labones, but I'm not really sure how they make their picks, or what their handicapping process is etc. It appears they rely more on game play etc rather than the mostly statistical approach I take. It's always good to have another source of info, so thanks for the post man! Always good to know people read my thread from time to time
Day 15
Belmont+5 feels like a, but that's how I felt about Iowa state yesterday. Consider taking the money line on this one, it is entirely possible. Vanderbilt-13 is a good play, Oregon and Tulane are dancing on the border of being no-plays, but I am trusting my gambling gut and playing them anyways.
The play to watch (but probably not bet on) tonight is Arkansas Pine bluff +30.5 or more. The numbers mostly suggest this number is exaggerated, but the results are not consistent enough to bet on (in my opinion). If I see some late line movement that moves this spread up a bit, I am going to be all over it. Most likely I will just monitor the score and either kick myself or pat myself on the back for not taking it.
I'm on the sober life until Christmas (and the preceding parties) get going. That's right, no beer, and no bongs for the Grease King this week. Be sure to crack one for me guys, cheers
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Denver vs. Belmont Belmont +5 10.6 10 0 Austin Peay vs.Vanderbilt Vanderbilt -13 5.4 5 0 U Cal Irvine vs. Oregon Oregon -13 5.05 5 0 Washington U vs. Tulane Tulane +7.5 5.3 5 0 Total: 26.35 25 0 0 0 0
Last edited by Grease King; 12-17-13 at 04:19 PM.
Day 15: results
Pretty bad day yesterday. Putting winning/losing my bet aside, the Vanderbilt and Tulane games were actually the worst games I've ever seen in my life. I'm confident I played in games in high school that looked better than the first half of the Vanderbilt game. Belmont was really disappointing, but these games happen for teams. At least the Oregon team was playing good basketball, and I got to watch an athletic first half before going to bed. Arkansas Pine Bluff didn't cover, so I am glad I didn't play them at least. Here are the results:
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Denver vs. Belmont Belmont +5 10.6 10 1 -2.12 -10.6 Austin Peay vs.Vanderbilt Vanderbilt -13 5.4 5 1 -1.08 -5.4 U Cal Irvine vs. Oregon Oregon -13 5.05 5 1 1 5 Washington U vs. Tulane Tulane +7.5 5.3 5 1 -1.06 -5.3 Total: 26.35 25 1 3 -3.26 -16.3
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 30 25 4.666 18.33 Win %= 54.5454545
Day 16
Yesterday was one of the worst days thus far. The numbers seemed a little off yesterday, but I played them anyways. The numbers seem "a little off" in the same way today, which of course makes me nervous, but not to the point I won't play my picks.
Drexel +3.5 looks like an exceptional pick, I would even suggest taking the moneyline on this one(I'm taking +3.5 because I'm self conscious about my win % rate now). San Diego state -30.5 goes against my gut, but is a good pick from a strictly statistical standpoint. I HATE calling teams to win by 30+ points, and I LOVE giving teams 30+ points. I had to talk myself in to making this call, hopefully I don't regret it. Massachusetts -1.5 is going to be the one to watch tonight. I think that win or lose, I am in for a really tight game between two good teams. Even a close loss is welcome after the garbage I watched last night.
There were a few games hovering on the border between play/no-play, but after last night I will back off, and just see how they turn out instead
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Massachusetts vs. Ohio Massachusetts -2 5 5.15 Drexel vs. Saint Joseph Drexel +3.5 10.2 10 Northern Illinois vs. Loyola Chicago Northern Illinois +8.5 5.5 5 Southern Utah vs. San Diego state San Diego state -30.5 5.3 5 Total: 26 25.15 0 0 0 0
Hopefully I get to see some good games tonight!
I will take the free bump, but I still reported this goon. Inb4 banned
What now??
Someone posted saying he had information on a rigged game and was selling it for $300. I reported him, I guess his post gets removed when he gets banned
Day 16: Results
Last night was a good night. I went 3-1, and got to see a couple good basketball games, but I am still frustrated with the results. Three nights in a row I have put two units on the game I am most confident in, and three nights in a row that has backfired. Drexel was winning by 5 or so at the half, but they opened the second half with a 5-17 run. The half continued in this manner, and Drexel lost by 20 or so in the end. I am not scared off from placing larger bets on games i feel more confident in, but I am certainly going to watch those situations closer, and put the results under a greater amount of scrutiny.
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won Massachusetts vs. Ohio Massachusetts -2 5 5.15 1 1.03 5.15 Drexel vs. Saint Joseph Drexel +3.5 10.2 10 1 -2.04 -10.2 Northern Illinois vs. Loyola Chicago Northern Illinois +8.5 5.5 5 1 1 5 Southern Utah vs. San Diego state San Diego state -30.5 5.3 5 1 1 5 Total: 26 25.15 3 1 0.99 4.95
Thread to date
Total Wins Total Losses Net Units Net Dollars 33 26 5.656 23.28 Win %= 55.9322034
My entire excel has now reached over 100 games played, and I am proud to say the win rate is above 63%
When I set out on this project, I decided that around 60% after 100 games played would be a serious benchmark when deciding whether to put more money in to this and continue pursuing it. I am a conservative money manager by nature, so I have decided to wait a little longer before doubling unit size. I will probably gauge my financial resources in the new year (after I have spent my money on the things that are important to me over the holidays), and act accordingly.
If anyone reads these let me know in the comments! If not I will continue treating it is my own little gambling diary!... Back to work for me!
Utah U -14 is a pick, and is probably going to go back up to -14.5 or more before tip off. I am not experienced enough yet with line movement to know this with any real certainty, but i would take this game even if it was -15, so you don't really have much to lose if you jump on it now
If you can get Arkansas -23.5 or less take it. If you can get UCLA +5.5 or more, take it
Congrats on the over 60%
keep up the good work GK
Day 17
Dec-19
There aren't very many games today, but an unusually high percentage of them are plays! I put a little more effort in to making my picks earlier, and monitoring lines to get better value this time. I believe with practice and experience, this will become an invaluable component of my technique. It has the potential to both increase the win rate by getting extra points on the spread, and increase profits by getting better odds on the same spread. For example, if I think a team -14 is a good pick, but I believe the spread will drop to -13.5 or less, I have two courses of action that will add value to the play. I could either A) wait for the spread to get to -13.5 and take that or B) wait for the spread to drop to -13.5, but take the bet at -14 for +odds. Obviously I will use my discretion when doing this; there is no point in taking the spread at -14 for +odds if it isn't going to win!
Here are the picks for today
Game Pick Dollars Bet To Win Win Loss Units Won Dollars Won UT Martin vs. Arkansas Arkansas -24 5.5 5 0 UCLA vs. Duke UCLA +5 5.45 5 0 Texas state vs. Utah Utah U -14 10.3 10 0 Western Illinois vs. Utah State Utah State -13 5.45 5 0 Clemson vs. Auburn Clemson -5 5.15 5 0 Total: 31.85 25 0 0 0 0
I'm going out for some beers with the office...I said sober until the Christmas parties started, and this counts
If you were debating starting it early tonight, start it. The grease King says so!
Thanks for the posts everyone! Appreciate all of them
i'm sure i'm not the only "fly on the wall" watching you scribble in your journal (and following along on some of the plays as well)
appreciate the effort pal...and the systematic way you're going about things
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