God, that line makes me just want to hit it big time. i mean, they did beat unc this year by 4 in one game. yes, lost badly in the other game by 20 i think @unc. But i mean common, this is the finals with the wolf pack trying to pull off an upset to get into the dance. doesn't that make it kinda close?? maybe a 10 point loss?/
appreciate thoughts on the sucker bet theory here guys.
According to Dickey V, no team has ever won 4 games in a row in the ACC tournament. Of course that doesn't mean that NC St. can't cover the 15. I got a small play on NC St.
Depending on who you talk to in the industry it seems everyone has an opinion about what a sucker bet is or isn't. The most common and widely cited definition of a sucker bet is "when a line looks to good to be true." Of course if you extend that quote it reads like this: "when a line looks to good to be true...it usually is."
The general idea is that linesmakers, especially at this point of a season are not going to make such glaring mistakes. Sure early on you will see lines that in retrospect make little sense (i.e. AF-3 over COL). But now, the linesmakers knows these teams well better than almost everyone else including gamblers, fans, journalists, and I wouldn't be shocked if they knew more than the coaches. Combine that with their access to historical data...you aren't really in a very good position to judge the accuracy of lines.
Thus, sometimes lines seem out of whack when they aren't. For me, if I see the public loading up on an underdog that is a very bad sign just b/c general betting tendency show that bettors are considerably more likely to bet favorites so if they are betting the underdog then it is out of character.....
But like I said, it depends on who you talk to about the nature of a sucker bet....
i dont think the 15-1/2 looks TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE
certainly not a game i would go crazy on
i just have to take 15-1/2 points or not play the game
reminds me of yesterdays memphis/houston game
Frankly, I'm not sure why this looked "too good to be true". BC and FSU were getting 11 and 11.5 from UNC, neither covered, and both would be AT LEAST 5 point favorites against NC State.
I guess the suckers today are the ones who past up on NCST getting DD on a neutral court against a team they already beat....
I think Sidney is going to be a very good coach...the way he got his team to play these 4 days against 4 teams who have more talent than his team does...says a lot about the coach.
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Nc State + 15 Sucker Bet Of The Year???
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