Grab the points and play the South Carolina Gamecocks this afternoon in their SEC tourney contest versus the Arkansas Razorbacks.
South Carolina needs a decent run in the SEC Tournament if they want to have any chance of defending its two-time NIT Championship.
Neither of these teams comes in with a lot of momentum although Arkansas has won two straight while the Gamecocks have dropped two in a row. The Razorbacks had not won back-to-back SEC games all season before closing with wins over Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, so making it three straight will be an even bigger challenge.
South Carolina matches up very well and has some big factors in their favor for Thursday. Three-point shooting will be important in this one. When Arkansas wins, it has done so with a +12.5 percent ratio from behind the arc. In its 12 losses, that shooting margin from long range drops to -11.9 percent, so saying that its important is actually an understatement. South Carolina converted 44% while the Razorbacks made just 31% in the lone meeting between the two this season, a six-point Gamecocks win. South Carolina is +4.1 percent on the road while Arkansas is -6.5 percent on the road.
Taking care of the ball is obviously a key element in winning and the Gamecocks have been superb at that. South Carolina has turned the ball over nine times or fewer in a game 10 times this season, including nine times or less in six of their last seven games. In five of their last seven games, the Gamecocks turned the ball over just eight times each. The Gamecocks have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.02 on the season which is better than the Razorbacks, and over the last five games, their ratio is +0.34 better than that of Arkansas.
South Carolina has had its share of close games this season with 10 games decided by six points or less, and the Gamecocks are 6-4 in those contests. Three of the four losses came against nationally-ranked opponents on the road, and six of the 10 games decided by six or less were also on the road.
South Carolina is 8-1 against the number versus winning teams and 9-4 against the spread as an underdog when getting five or more points. The Gamecocks have covered seven straight games on the road. Play the Gamecocks for a unit.
Again, I agree with Dan... And I'm not tailing him on anything. I posted last night that I like Arkansas, and I still do. I do like teasing South Carolina up to 10.5, however, in an attempt for a nice middle (or at least a semi-hedge). Arkansas's win at Vandy gives them momentum heading into this tourney against a lackluster South carolina team. That said, if SC gets hot from behind the arc, they could win this game outright. In fact, a tiny ML play may be in order here (parlayed with the over, because for SC to win, the over will almost definitely have to be hit.)
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Matt Fargo: Gamecocks +6 vs Hogs
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