[Dark Horse]

Some may remember this from last year's March Madness.

Sun Devils
Points 24
Field Goals 10-27, 37%
Free Throws 2-5, 40%
3-Pointers 2-9, 22%
Off. Rebounds 3
Def. Rebounds 9
Total Rebounds 12
Assists 6
Blocks 1
Fouls 11
Steals 3
Turnovers 7

Huskies
Points 32
Field Goals 11-30, 36%
Free Throws 7-14, 50%
3-Pointers 3-7, 42%
Off. Rebounds 10
Def. Rebounds 14
Total Rebounds 24
Assists 6
Blocks 1
Fouls 7
Steals 2
Turnovers 6

Similar shooting percentages, but a huge rebounding edge for Huskies (who took control of the game with a 22-3 run to end the half). Leaning towards 2H Huskies -2.

Thoughts?

[Jay Edgar]

Looks right to me.

GL

[GoBruins]

im on it... go huskies

[quik2]

Not looking good, so many damn turn overs. They need to hold on to the f*@#@ Ball.

Seems Huskies are getting frustrated, this is not looking good. Unless we get another 22-3 run.

[Dark Horse]

Normally I look at a big difference in shooting percentage at the half, and back the low shooting team. Huskies very unfocused in 2H, which could definitely have been predicted after that 22-3 run. My bad.

[Dark Horse]

WTF??

Up 8 pts, needed 2 more FT's, the Huskie gets the rebound with 2 seconds left, he is intentionally fouled, everybody stops playing in expectation of another trip to the FT line, and the refs let it go...

I don't think I've ever seen that before.

[Crayzee]

one of the factors i consider on 2h bets is if the team i want to back really needs to score as much as they need to to win
i like when stronger teams are down at 1/2 and they almost only have to win by 1 to 3 pts to cover the 2h line
in this case huskies were up by 8 at half and there was no reason for them to need to win by any more than that
just chiming in since i've been betting alot of 2h lately
i had central ct and uab 2h yesterday with both being down at 1/2

[Dark Horse]

Motivation is definitely key. Got suckered in by the 24-12 rebounding edge. That type of edge is pretty decisive and hard to adjust to. I still think it was an ok bet for that reason, but their main rebounder got three quick fouls early in the 2H. How often does that happen? So much for the rebounding edge.

Even so, the bet should probably have pushed. Huskies were hitting their FT's at the end of the game, and Zona was forced to foul again. They did so with 2 seconds left on the clock, and players were waiting for the whistle, but the refs for some strange reason let it go.

Would I make this same bet again? Yes. Even without the motivation. I wouldn't bet it big though. (Nor did I last night).

[The HG]

Motivation is definitely key.

Motivation is key, crossed with ability to do something about it, of course. The ability of the team with motivation is far more important than the ability of the team being motivated against, and that is where value can often be found. If a capable team is motivated to play well in the 2H vs another capable team, the 2H line will be very reasonable.

[Dark Horse]

We should have fun with 2H bets during March Madness. It's going to be crazy.

[Dark Horse]

Orange
Points 34
Field Goals 13-30, 43%
Free Throws 7-12, 58%
3-Pointers 1-9, 11%
Off. Rebounds 6
Def. Rebounds 16
Total Rebounds 22
Assists 2
Blocks 3
Fouls 4
Steals 5
Turnovers 10

Fighting Irish
Points 32
Field Goals 12-33, 36%
Free Throws 2-2, 100%
3-Pointers 6-19, 31%
Off. Rebounds 5
Def. Rebounds 10
Total Rebounds 15
Assists 5
Blocks 0
Fouls 9
Steals 6
Turnovers 9

ND 2 pts behind, shooting 7% worse. I'm adding half of FT's to shot number, so ND has 34 shots versus 36 shots for Syracuse.
Assist to Turnover: 2/10 versus 5/9. Leaning towards 2H ND -1.

Of course, that means they will have to win the game for the ticket to cash, so this may as well be a -2.5 spread (except for the push if ND loses game by 1 pt).

Thoughts?

[The HG]

Orange
Points 34
Field Goals 13-30, 43%
Free Throws 7-12, 58%
3-Pointers 1-9, 11%
Off. Rebounds 6
Def. Rebounds 16
Total Rebounds 22
Assists 2
Blocks 3
Fouls 4
Steals 5
Turnovers 10

Fighting Irish
Points 32
Field Goals 12-33, 36%
Free Throws 2-2, 100%
3-Pointers 6-19, 31%
Off. Rebounds 5
Def. Rebounds 10
Total Rebounds 15
Assists 5
Blocks 0
Fouls 9
Steals 6
Turnovers 9

ND 2 pts behind, shooting 7% worse. I'm adding half of FT's to shot number, so ND has 34 shots versus 36 shots for Syracuse.
Assist to Turnover: 2/10 versus 5/9. Leaning towards 2H ND -1.

Of course, that means they will have to win the game for the ticket to cash, so this may as well be a -2.5 spread (except for the push if ND loses game by 1 pt).

Thoughts?

I have absolutely zero opinion on this one DH. I do admit I have a unit on ND, which was probably a mistake in retrospect. This game is unique, though, different from standard NCAA tourney halftime analyses, due to ND's recent history of mental problems and Syracuse's uncanny tendency to do well in the Big East tourney. Way too many unknowns to mess around with a 2H bet in my opinion.

I took ND because I had numbers indicating it was a good bet, but I did it with hesitation knowing the intangibles involved.

[Dark Horse]

ND wins 2H by 8 pts.

No other games so far.

[Dark Horse]

Warriors
Points 36
Field Goals 15-26, 57%
Free Throws 1-2, 50%
3-Pointers 5-12, 41%
Off. Rebounds 4
Def. Rebounds 6
Total Rebounds 10
Assists 6
Blocks 1
Fouls 4
Steals 0
Turnovers 0

Aggies
Points 36
Field Goals 13-25, 51%
Free Throws 6-6, 100%
3-Pointers 4-6, 66%
Off. Rebounds 5
Def. Rebounds 7
Total Rebounds 12
Assists 5
Blocks 0
Fouls 2
Steals 0
Turnovers 0

Game tied at the half. Line at HT is Hawaii 2H -2.5. Both teams are shooting lights out, so this may not be the best spot to look at difference in shooting percentages. Reason is that it may be as hard for Utah St to keep up 51% as for Hawaii to keep up 57%. So just a slight lean towards Utah +2.5, but will pass on this one.

Thoughts?

[The HG]

Well I had Utah St as one of my ML dogs for the day, and I had them at +123. They were +130 to win the 2H, so I think there's value with that, although I already have enough on them so I didn't add anything. But yes, if I hadn't had them to win the FG as a dog, I would've bet them to win the 2H as a dog.

[Dark Horse]

They look to be on their way. Based on the HT stats, it was too close to call, though.

[Dark Horse]

Unless percentages change dramatically in the next minutes, we have a beauty coming up.

[Dark Horse]

Golden Bears
Points 37
Field Goals 13-23, 56%
Free Throws 7-9, 77%
3-Pointers 4-8, 50%
Off. Rebounds 2
Def. Rebounds 10
Total Rebounds 12
Assists 8
Blocks 0
Fouls 6
Steals 5
Turnovers 9

Bruins
Points 25
Field Goals 9-22, 40%
Free Throws 2-4, 50%
3-Pointers 5-13, 38%
Off. Rebounds 2
Def. Rebounds 7
Total Rebounds 9
Assists 7
Blocks 1
Fouls 11
Steals 2
Turnovers 11

You have to love this shooting percentage differential. UCLA shooting 16% worse (plus having the motivation arrow pointing their way for 2H). Other stats are close enough.

Unfortunately, the books hang a -10.5 line on UCLA for 2H. Clearly, worth a shot, Just not a huge shot.

Thoughts?

[The HG]

I don't know, it makes me uncomfortable, I wouldn't touch it. UCLA may be in a funk and not care at all about this tourney, and Cal might go into hyper-focus mode to try to preserve the huge upset. I wouldn't touch it, the motivation isn't there for UCLA.

[Crayzee]

the ucla 2h line wa s-10-1/2?
that didnt even have them having to win
i woulda been on that but i missed it
damm
as it is i proabbaly woulda had air force too so they woulda washed anyway

i did get wyoming +8 and cal +15 in though
hope cal can hang on

[Dark Horse]

UCLA game now in OT. Made up 12 pts (and more) but game thrown back into the pond, because Bruins terrible from the line.

Mountaineers
Points 27
Field Goals 8-24, 33%
Free Throws 7-10, 69%
3-Pointers 4-15, 26%
Off. Rebounds 4
Def. Rebounds 7
Total Rebounds 11
Assists 4
Blocks 0
Fouls 8
Steals 3
Turnovers 5

Cardinals
Points 35
Field Goals 15-26, 57%
Free Throws 4-6, 66%
3-Pointers 1-7, 14%
Off. Rebounds 5
Def. Rebounds 10
Total Rebounds 15
Assists 4
Blocks 2
Fouls 10
Steals 4
Turnovers 7

Huge differential in shooting percentage: 24%!
Of course one reason is that Mountaineers take twice as many 3 pt attempts. All other stats more or less equal. Lean: Mountaineers 2H line is -0.5.

Thoughts?