Authored by BaycatJ at
Pointguardu
Like Arizona, SDSU is a new look team. Like Arizona, they lost 3 key players from last year, including Jamaal Frankling to the NBA, and floor leader Chase Tapley and uber efficient Deshawn Stephens to graduation. This amounts to 53% of their scoring and a huge chunk of their over-all production. Also like Arizona, they add in key pieces including Josh Davis as a grad transfer from Tulane and a pair of freshmen, including 4* Dakari Allen and 3* D'Erryl Williams, as well as redshirt 4* freshman, Matt Shrigley. Other than that, SDSU returns 4 players who averaged more than 10mpg from last year, none of whom averaged more than 9.5ppg. So here's the breakdown of the roster and how Arizona should match up.
6'3 G Xavier Thames: Expect TJ McConnell to get the assignment for the majority of the game. Thames is SDSU's leading returning scorer and evenly distributes his points between 3's, 2's, and getting to the FT stripe. However, he is fairly inefficient. With a very average 20% usage %, he only shoots a 42.5% eFG% (Arizona as a team shot 52% last year and is shooting 64% so far this year). He also is prone to TOs, with a TO rate of 18%. TJ should be salivating at this matchup.
6'7 F JJ O'Brien: This may turn into an interesting matchup. O'Brien is not an outside shooter and relies mostly on offensive rebounding to score, which he does so very effectively. The ball will rarely go through his hands in the half court and he is typically not a threat to score in a one-on-one matchup. He can be disruptive though on the defensive end. Nick may be matched up with O'Brien for size, but I think this is a better matchup for Aaron. Whoever has him on defense should be careful to box out, but should also look for opportunities to roam and create havok.
6'8 F Winston Shepard: Shepard is not a major 3 point threat, is prone to TOs, and will want to rebound. Nick may spend some time on the wirey Shepard, but Rondae will certainly look to take him out of the game when he comes in off the bench. Shepard had a terrible offensive rating of 86 last year. To compare, Arizona's 3 major returners were all over 102.
6'8 F Josh Davis: According to Hoopsnerd, Josh Davis projects as one of the top 3 transfers coming into the season. In fact, his HnI of 141 is 26 points higher than any other player for SDSU this year. The average HnI of every other major player is 114. To compare, Arizona has 3 players higher (Nick - 140, Brandon - 126, Zeus - 119). PLUS TJ is projected to come in at 139. Expect Brandon Ashley to draw this matchup. This will be a tough one, but if Arizona plays help defense well, they should be able to shut down SDSU's main offensive threat.
6'10 C Skylar Spencer: Spencer only played 14mpg and 2.9ppg last year but shot an effective 66% from 2 when he did play. He's also not a threat to stretch the floor. On defense, he has some size and likes to help block shots. Zeus' prayers have been answered. This is what he's been waiting for. I expect Zeus to terrorize Spencer on both ends of the floor, especially offense where he should get some nice dump offs and also have a favorable one-on-one situation.
To summarize, SDSU will have 1 player who averages a higher efficiency than Arizona's worst player. They have lost a large percentage of their rebounding from last year, and they will likely have a difficult time controlling the ball. They do have size at the 2, but otherwise give up size at every position to AZ. Arizona should score very well off of TOs, should completely shut SDSU down on D, and has size inside that SDSU is not accustomed to. Even against UC Riverside, SDSU only shot 45% from 2 and 31% from 3. As long as Arizona hits their FTs, this should be a lopsided game.
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Arizona -1 @ SDSU? CBB
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Originally Posted by ChalkyDog
Arizona ML and Towson ML parlay
