Originally Posted by
Me
Here's the problem I have with taking Wright State tomorrow. A month ago, I was telling anyone that would listen that Wright State was better than 50/50 to beat Butler outright. Yet, it seemed everyone in the world was on Butler (Sports Insights had the percentages something like 87-13), and there were some posts on this very forum where people claimed Butler should be a 10-point favorite. Now, granted, most of that was foolish talk. But here's the thing - now the line is half what it was before, and the public is switching to about 50/50 on the side of this game, even though Butler will bring a much more focused effort this time, they have already played in this building once this season (a big advantage), and they will have many more fans at the game this time around. The value is, if not gone, certainly diminished.
I'm not recommending a play on Butler, by any means. Wright State is the play. I have them a 1.5 point favorite in this game. But, my opinion is almost that if you didn't bet on Wright State against Butler in the first meeting - when there was incredible value - you're chasing a missed opportunity by playing it this time.