1. #71
    EaglesPhan36
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    Dayton blows today. Not taking it because I am gonna ride out my over, but watching Miami & S.Carolina - 27 points scored in the last 4 minutes after 38 points the rest of the half. 75 is the 2nd half total. IF Miami makes some FTs, they have sucked - something like 4 of 12 - then I think the OVER gets done and done for the game too. Just gonna hold on for that one. Hoping to split these two and keep at .500 for Fs sake.

  2. #72
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 18-18-1 (-1.35)

  3. #73
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #38: GONZAGA -9.5 (-115)
    The 'Zags showed against Michigan State that they will be a solid team despite having a different make-up this season. Colorado has yet to play anyone close to this level and they are expected to bring up the rear in the Big 12. The Buffs might have decent guards, but this Gonzaga team showed it will be a solid low post threat and should parlay that into good defense as well. If the Buffs outside shooters are contained, no reason Gonzaga doesn't win by double digits.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 11-23-09 at 01:49 PM.

  4. #74
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #39: [1st Half] Cincinnati/Vanderbilt OVER 67.5 (-110)
    Tempo is a key here as both can run & gun if they get caught in that style of basketball. Cincy likes the hoist the 3 ball more-so than Vandy and if they hit some early 2s, they can get it going quick. Vandy is unlikely to be caught shooting too many threes, but they can bang it inside to A.J. Ogilvy to open their perimeter game up. Jermaine Beal & Jeffrey Taylor will be the ones to watch for the Commodores, if they get it going - the tempo can stay up. Cincy will look for Lance Stephenson & All-Big East performer Dionta Vaughn to establish tempo. This should have a shot to eclipse 70 if both teams are awake and not with their minds on the beach!

  5. #75
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 18-20-1 (-3.60)

    Two steps forward, nine steps back.

  6. #76
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #40: UT-SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (-105)
    If they can beat Iowa, they can beat UC-Irvine. Tempo will be key, UTSA must keep their running game going.

  7. #77
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #41: [1st Half] TEXAS -8 (-110)
    This one figures to be ugly, style-wise & score-wise. Iowa has trouble scoring & Texas plays solid defense. UT has swarmed their opponents early in their first two games & Iowa may start slow in their half court offense if the shots don't fall early. Texas needs to improve their FT percentage, but if they smother Iowa defensively, they should work out to a double digit lead.

  8. #78
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 19-21-1 (-3.70)

    Thanks Longhorns for blowing your 15 point lead against freaking IOWA.

    PLAY #42: ARIZONA +5.5 (-105)
    Pretty even match-up here with two mid-pack power conference teams. These are two teams that get after it on defense, so this figures to be ugly & close and getting 5 points seems right nice for Sean Miller's new squad in Arizona. Nic Wise could be the difference. He'll be the best player on the court.

  9. #79
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #43: [2nd Half] Colorado/Arizona UNDER 74 (-105)
    A ton of free throws, especially for the Buffs who made 15 of 18. 8 of 10 for Arizona. Without the free throws, there was some pretty solid defense/bad offense as Colorado shot just 36%. Arizona was pretty decent at 45%. Certainly if the whistles continue then the OVER has a big chance, but expect adjustments from both teams to avoid further foul troubles - especially Arizona which had problems last night too with fouls.

  10. #80
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 20-22-1 (-3.75)

  11. #81
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #44: UT-SAN ANTONIO -8 (-105)
    Rode the Roadrunners last night & this looks like another good spot to keep on them. UTSA takes on a Farleigh Dickinson squad that is 1-3, losing by double digits to Villanova, Wichita State & Eastern Kentucky last time out 68-39. UTSA's up tempo pace & shooting is superior to FD at this point and they play pretty decent defense as well. All three wins have been by double digits.

  12. #82
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #45: GONZAGA/WISCONSIN OVER 128 (-105)
    This number is probably pretty accurate given the style Wisconsin prefers. Gonzaga likely would prefer to run some here to try and take advantage of their athleticism, but they also need to pound it inside to their big guys where they can do the most damage. Seem to be a ton of fouls at this tournament, that always helps .. if the teams can make 'em.

  13. #83
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #46: TEXAS -7.5 (-105)
    If this were mid-season and we knew more about what Pittsburgh is going to be, this could be a double digit line. Pitt hasn't lost yet, but this will be by far their toughest test. Texas should prove too tough all-around for a rebuilding Panthers squad.

  14. #84
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 23-22-1 (-0.75)

    Finally above .500 ... next, positive units!

  15. #85
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #47: [2nd Half] Michigan State/UMASS OVER 79 (-110)
    94 point 1st half and I think the Spartans may want to continue to whooping after last night's upset loss to Florida. May be a lot of garbage time, but there were plenty of free throws in the 1st half and MSU will want to stay sharp IMO in this half ahead of their showdown with UNC on Tuesday. UMASS always plays a faster pace no matter what the score, so let's go!

  16. #86
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 24-22-1 (+0.25)
    Whoa Nellie! Those are positive units! 81 point 2nd half. Scraped by.

    PLAY #48: RUTGERS/FLORIDA OVER 133 (-105)
    The big question here is how the Gators follow up their upset of #2 Michigan State last night. Taking the total alleviates any concerns on whether they will have trouble putting back-2-back efforts together. The Gators have been able to put up akmost 74 ppg despite shooting under 43% from the field. Their low output is 68 points. Rutgers has shot well, 48% from the floor. They have pushed the point output higher than 140 in 3 of 4 with only defensive-minded Drexel keeping the score lower. The Scarlet Knights have tallied 70 or better in 3 of 4, while allowing 67 or more in 3 of 4. With that in mind, this one seems likely to beat this number if both teams can put together consistent offensive efforts. If one of them gets to 70, the other should do the rest.



  17. #87
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 24-23-1 (-0.80)
    Narrow miss with 131 points in the last one.

    PLAY #49: [1st Half] XAVIER/BAYLOR OVER 64.5 (-115)
    Xavier has shown a tendency to play to the tempo of their opposition. If Baylor pushes the ball, both these teams can score the ball. Pretty decent defenses too, but offense should get enough in the 1st half.

  18. #88
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 24-24-1 (-1.95)

    Horrible shooting, back to .500.


  19. #89
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #50: NIAGARA PK (-110)
    Pretty even match-up at Akron today, but the edge goes to Niagara with better defense and better free throw shooting. If they can exploit Akron's D, they could win this comfortably by 5-8 points. Otherwise, this figures to be a back & forth affair.
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 11-29-09 at 12:50 PM.

  20. #90
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    PLAY #51: MICHIGAN/ALABAMA OVER 134.5 (-105)
    Michigan has been very consistent on the offensive end of the floor. 65 against Marquette last time out was their worst performance, but on the season they are averaging over 80 ppg and shooting 45%. 'Bama is giving up just over 70 ppg & has given up 69 or more in 4 of 5 games. The Tide were held to a season low 51 against a solid defensive squad in Florida State, so expect them to get back on track against a Wolverines team that has been steady, but has had trouble with dribble-drive penetration. If the Tide are patient vs. the zone, they should be able to score some points.

  21. #91
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 24-25-1 (-3.05)

    Niagara falls apart in the 2nd half after leading by 8. That kinda day thus far.

  22. #92
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 24-26-1 (-4.10)

    134. That is my day in a nutshell.

  23. #93
    TJHotpicks
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    It will turn around. Keep capping!

  24. #94
    EaglesPhan36
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    Yeah. Just a horrible day. I won 5 or 6 games over the Thanksgiving break that I did not get to post, then when I come back I post a nice string of sheeeeit! Back to .500 today hopefully.

  25. #95
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #52: [1st Half] Penn State/Virginia OVER 60 (-115)
    Two teams that shoot pretty well and would probably be called "average" on defense. Both shoot FTs very well, so that will be a big plus if fouls come into play early. The tempo will not get out of control with either of these clubs, but UVA has been solid offensively in the 1st half on its home court. 31 against Stanford was their low with several games in the 40s in the first half. If they can hit somewhere between 33-36, I believe the Nittany Lions can do the rest. It'll be ugly perhaps, but this has the feeling of a scrape job in the right direction for the OVER.

  26. #96
    EaglesPhan36
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    Switched off a winner for this. Mojo sucks.

  27. #97
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #53: WAKE FOREST/PURDUE OVER 140 (-110)
    Getting into the Pomeroy Rankings again and using possessions per game on some of these totals to see if it is accurate this season. This has been a good tool for me in the past, so let's see. Purdue averages about 72 possessions per game, Wake Forest around 70. Wake's offensive efficiency is rated at 1.09 points per possession with Wake's defensive efficiency at .92 points per possession. So the Purdue offense vs. Wake defense would be about a point per possession or about 72 points. Wake's offensive efficiency is 1.02. Purdue's defense is .80. The middle there is .91. So Wake's O vs. Purdue's D would be about 64 points. Taking into account that Purdue is getting anywhere from 5-8 extra possessions in uptempo games, you can add anywhere from 5-8 points on top. Considering also that Purdue's defensive efficiency may be a bit exaggerated by playing some lower competition than Wake, you could feasibly see Purdue scoring in the mid 70s or better and Wake getting into the upper 60s. So that research + just looking at the game totals for some of these two squads' games, leans me to take the over. The experiment begins.

  28. #98
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #54: [1st Half] Colorado State/N.Colorado OVER 63 (-105)
    My brain is getting in the way. No more over-thinking. This shit streak has to go, hay hay, ho ho.

  29. #99
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 24-29-1 (-7.40)

    I hope someone is fading me hard and winning money. I blow. 7 straight losses.

  30. #100
    EaglesPhan36
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    I'm gonna keep plodding on, if you go far enough into reverse, you end up going forward again, right? No write-ups, just picks tonight.


    PLAY #55: East Carolina +11 (+105)
    PLAY #56: Duke/Wisconsin OVER 133 (+100)
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 12-02-09 at 06:47 PM. Reason: Price Change on Duke-Wisconsin

  31. #101
    TJHotpicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    I'm gonna keep plodding on, if you go far enough into reverse, you end up going forward again, right? No write-ups, just picks tonight.


    PLAY #55: East Carolina +11 (+105)
    PLAY #56: Duke/Wisconsin OVER 133 (-110)

    Kinda like NASCAR....4 left turns and you are back at the beginning.

  32. #102
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #57: [2nd Half] UNLV/Arizona UNDER 77 (-110)
    Lots of jump shots here. 22 of the 58 shots between the two from 3 point land. Vegas shooting in the mid 30s. 'Zona in the mid 40s. FTs weren't overly huge, 10 made, 15 attempted. So long as the ice doesn't begin to melt on the long range shooting, this may stay under.

  33. #103
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 24-30-1 (-8.40)

    ECU loses by 12. This is hilarious. 8 straight. I'm guessing Duke & Wisconsin will score 62 in the 2nd half and wind up on 132.


  34. #104
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record: 25-31-1 (-8.50)

    Streak ends at 8 and then the humor comes right back. Had the UNDER 77 for the 2nd half and the mother ****ers go to double OT & just now passed 77 late in the 2nd overtime. Had 45 in the 2nd half at the end of regulation. If it wasn't so perfectly in tune with the last couple days, I'd be pissed, but it's kinda funny to be losing some of these games in fabulous new ways.

  35. #105
    EaglesPhan36
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    PLAY #58: WASHINGTON -1.5 (-105)
    Huskies may not travel well early, but I'm not buying into Texas Tech at this point being close in talent to this Huskies squad. If UW comes to play, they win comfortably. If not, it's a nail biter. I can already guess which one it will be!

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