Back the Northern Illinois Huskies as home favorites tonight in MAC play versus the Ball State Cardinals.
It is very easy for a team to get stuck in a rut and just throw in the towel, but that is not the case for Northern Illinois.
The Huskies were mired in an eight-game losing streak and had dropped 17 of 18 prior to winning their last two games, including an impressive road win at Ohio on Saturday. Northern Illinois lost six games by three points or fewer over that span and playing 13 of its last 18 games away from home has not helped matters. Three of their five MAC home games have been again 1st- or 2nd-place teams.
Ball St. is coming off yet another road blowout loss as the Cardinals dropped to 1-11 away from home on the season. They are getting outscored by close to 13 per game and getting outshot by 11.2% in those road games. One look at the recent history and you see both teams going 2-3 in their last five games. However, Ball St. is getting outshot by 9.7% from the floor while Northern Illinois is outshooting its opponents by 6.6% over that same span. The margins are -4.6% and +12.8% respectively from behind the three-point line.
The Huskies do have huge advantages in offensive shooting. They are ranked 41st in the country, shooting 47.5% while the Cardinals are one of the worst in the nation at 38.8%, good for 321st in the country. From behind the arc the Huskies are 110th while Ball St. is 331st thanks to an 8.5% shooting margin. Both teams are relatively the same with assist/turnover ratios, that is until looking at home/road splits where Ball St. has a putrid ratio of 0.66 as its 8.1 assists per game is 333rd in the nation.
The Huskies clearly have the momentum coming into this game and their most recent victory sets up a very profitable situation. Play on favorites off an upset win as an underdog of 10 or more, a team that is winning fewer than 40% of their games on the season. This situation is 26-8 against the spread (76.5%) since 1997 with the average point differential being 8.1 points per game in those 34 games. Northern Illinois will be looking for some payback after losing in Muncie by 11 points and they get it done here. Play the Northern Illinois Huskies for 1½ units.
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Matt Fargo: Huskies -3½ vs Cardinals
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