1. #1
    The HG
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    Posts: 3,566

    Ganchrow Dec 20 NCAA totals lines

    NC St 134 (32?)
    UConn 160
    S Carolina 100
    Indiana 140 (low confidence)
    Dayton 114 (12?)
    W Virginia 128 (somewhat broad range of likely scores, a plateau from mid 20's to mid 30's)
    Elon (no number)
    Villanova 154 (somewhat low confidence)
    Georgetown 130 (32?)
    VCU 120 (low confidence, very careful)
    A Peay 132 (34?)
    S Illinois 116 (broad range of likely scores, a plateau from mid 00's to mid 20's)
    Iowa 134
    Tenn Martin 128 (mostly normal confidence, except for the factor of the last game btw these 2 going to 173)
    Arizona 154 (low confidence)
    DePaul 136
    E Illinois 118 (somewhat low confidence)
    Texas 142 (44?)

    note: there is a distinction between a game having "low confidence" and a "plateau" (or a broader than normal range of likely scores). imagine the range of likely scores as a graphed line, with a peak around the most likely outcome, and sloping down as the outcomes on the graph move farther away from the peak, or most likely outcome. a game with lower confidence is one that has less of a clear peak, or it may have one or more peaks, an irregular graph. a game with a plateau has the normal shape, but it is flatter, with the peak having a wider range. examples: a game with low confidence might have 132-136 as an equally likely outcome as 150-154. a game with a plateau might have the range of 124-140 as a peak, while a normal peak would only have a range of 4 or 6 points or so.
    Last edited by The HG; 12-19-06 at 02:45 PM.

  2. #2
    gummo
    Bearcats
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    Nothing for today? (12/19)

  3. #3
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by gummo
    Nothing for today? (12/19)
    sorry, i didn't get my numbers done early enough yesterday, i like to post them before the lines come out. here are my numbers for today, although many of the lines i bet have moved a lot since they came out (like the n tex/w kentucky line, which opened at 144 and moved so quickly i couldn't even get the bet down until it was at 147)

    Virginia 138
    N Carolina 158
    Toledo 128
    Kentucky 122
    Syracuse 134 (36?)
    Ball St 128
    Wright St (no number)
    Duke 122
    St Joe's 130
    JMU 138 (36?)
    Iona 134 (low confidence)
    Notre Dame 142
    Clemson 146 (low confidence)
    Ohio St 140
    W Kentucky 162
    Auburn 144 (low confidence)
    Mississippi 142 (low confidence)
    Bradley 152 (54?)
    Murray St 134 (low confidence)
    SE Mo St 116 (broad range, gentle slope to 130)
    Missouri 136

    for the other games, no numbers, but we have bets on:

    Poly over 152 (.5 unit)
    Fresno St under 138 (2 units, will take one back if line goes low enough)
    UNLV under 143.5 (3 units) and 140 (3 units, will take some back if line goes low enough)

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