[seaborneq]

I guess I'll sponsor a perfect bracket with my 4000+ points. I won't have to pay out anything plus I'll get free publicity like 5dimes, heritagesports, bovada, etc.

[Capper007]

Speaking of doing a bracket...do the games tomorrow and wednesday count towards it or starting on thursday?

Ill PM you my predicitons if you want raven!

[Capper007]

First games are play in games....and NIT starts soon also

[floridagolfer]

I've been running a pool for the last 25 years that generally pays the top four or five finishers. One year I had a guy . . . God rest his soul . . . go a perfect 32-0 on the first two days . . . and he finished OUT of the money.

[mcduggly]

I've been running a pool for the last 25 years that generally pays the top four or five finishers. One year I had a guy . . . God rest his soul . . . go a perfect 32-0 on the first two days . . . and he finished OUT of the money.

Wow, starting 32-0 is extremely impressive.

[CBASS]

That's awesome!!

[frogsrangers]

In 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2007 there were hardly any first round upsets, so those years were frustrating when the cheeseballs in my bracket pools did nothing but pick favorites in the first round to advance and hear them gloat about how smart they were. I will say though that while I am usually the guy who likes to pick a good number of upsets in the first round, I am not seeing too many upset potential opportunities this year. The 13-16 line is too weak.

[horja1]

1vs16 108-0
2vs15 104-4
3vs14 92-16
4vs13 85-23

etc.... Odds are nowhere near 1 in 9.2 quintillion. That may be true to flip heads 63 times in a row with a fair coin but not in sports.

id put fair odds around 1 in every 50-75 SBR brackets being perfect

So I guess there will be about 10k-20k perfect brackets this year too, right?

[yisman]

No one has ever come close. 5 Dimes is offering a million to one when it should be at least 5 billion to one for fair odds.

There is no recorded document like the above poster put its like 1 in 9.2 quintillion. The autistic kid had the first 2 rounds perfect which I think I read the odds at 1 in like 13 million of doing that. He had Purdue winning it all on his bracket so we know he didn't have a perfect bracket.

The autistic kid didn't get anything right. Some lazy clueless writer took the story and ran with it (and then other websites ran with it). The kid was using CBS bracket manager, which lets you edit your bracket as the tournament is played. The kid was filling in teams as they won.


I have never even seen a verified legit bracket that had the whole first two rounds correct, let alone the whole shebang.

[RavensFan2k3]

First games are play in games....and NIT starts soon also

I know they are play in games...im asking when filling out a bracket, do you have to predict those games too...or you wait till after those games have been played then start on thursday....and ill be waitin for your PM bro

[BigDeem5]

I have only had a perfect bracket 3 of the last 5 years.

[The Kraken]

There are no documented cases of anyone ever filling out a perfect bracket. And it might not happen for a long, long time. According to DePaul math professor Jeff Bergen, the odds of someone without any basketball knowledge randomly picking teams and filling out a perfect bracket are 9.2 quintillion to one. If you have some basketball knowledge the odds are still not in your favor - 128 billion to one. In 2012, Fox Sports offered $1 million to anyone who filled out a perfect bracket.


You have a better chance of getting hit by lightning and winning the lottery in the same day.



-ESPN, NBC, and FOX sources

I'm not going to take the time to figure it out but ill agree with 1 in 128 billion. Which is nothing but a minute fraction of 9 quintillion. Regardless, it would be a hell of a feat to hit a 63 team parlay.

[OneTouch00]

brackets and choosing a parlay are not they same unless your doing moneyline which wouldnt pay you as much

[seaborneq]

brackets and choosing a parlay are not they same unless your doing moneyline which wouldnt pay you as much

Probably the equivalent of a 15-20 sides parlay. Impossible indeed. I would love to hit the perfect bracket over the sides parlay.

[The Kraken]

It's like picking a 63 team, ML parlay. I thought that was implied. I apologize.

As for the payout, how can you say it wouldn't pay as much? I guess im not following your logic.

[seaborneq]

In my best dr evil voice. 10 million dollars over the money line payout that probably has a limit way before 63 games.

[5mike5]

I'm not going to take the time to figure it out but ill agree with 1 in 128 billion. Which is nothing but a minute fraction of 9 quintillion. Regardless, it would be a hell of a feat to hit a 63 team parlay.

he was correct Kraken...its ALOT worse than 128 billon-1....it is over 9 quintillon-1 chance

[The Kraken]

Mike, that may be true for 63 independent events with two possible outcomes, assuming the probability of each outcome is a fair 50/50. Like flipping heads 63 times in a row. Im sure to flip a coin and have it land on heads 63 times in a row is around 1 in 9 quintillion.

However, thats comparing apples to oranges. Because we have a good idea who's gonna win a lot of the games. We know the #1 seeds will win in the first round. Over 90% chance all #1 AND #2 seeds win their first round games. So that's 8 games out of the mix now. So we just went from having to pick the outcome of 63 events to 55 events and that alone will likely cut the odds in half, if not more. Odds are also heavily favored that all #1-#3 seeds will win. And so on.

So the true odds are nowhere near 1 in 9 quintillion. I'll concede to 1 in 128billion because Im not going to take the time to figure it out exactly.

[The Kraken]

Odds that all #1-#4 seeds win their first round games is over 63%.

[Kaabee]

obviously the odds of perfect change from year to year. you need to be able to know the lines for matchups in 2nd round and beyond. i'm sure a linesmaker could come up with a pretty good estimation of moneyline faves winning every game.

[Bcatswin]

whats the odds ?

9.2 quintillion to one

[Kaabee]

9.2 quintillion to one

that's like saying the odds of the heat winning 22 in a row is 1 in 4,194,304

[yisman]

The lines are out. Anyone could make a rough calculation now for the first round at least (knowing spread to ML conversion). Suffice it to say that for the entire bracket, it's at least several billion to 1, even for people who know what they're doing and have an idea of the odds, and 5 Dimes is fleecing people by giving odds of a million to 1.



A perfect first round alone is very rare, although I'm sure it's been done a few times.

[Kaabee]

The lines are out. Anyone could make a rough calculation now (knowing spread to ML conversion). Suffice it to say that it's at least several billion to 1, even for people who know what they're doing and have an idea of the odds, and 5 Dimes is fleecing people by giving odds of a million to 1.

yes but you need to know lines for all the rounds.

[seaborneq]

Fgcu left no suspense this year. Over early.

[BettingWizard]

It's a 63 team moneyline parlay, with you having to know every upset and every pick em game

so no it will never happen.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Damn, the books sure do have the round one ML odds off... According to some of you dopes, every game is a coin flip huh?

[frogsrangers]

The lines are out. Anyone could make a rough calculation now for the first round at least (knowing spread to ML conversion). Suffice it to say that for the entire bracket, it's at least several billion to 1, even for people who know what they're doing and have an idea of the odds, and 5 Dimes is fleecing people by giving odds of a million to 1.



A perfect first round alone is very rare, although I'm sure it's been done a few times.

There were hundreds of people in 2007 that had a perfect bracket after the first round. That year only two underdogs won in the first round and nothing but that.

[harthebar]

ha ha ha ,i think its a waste of time even thinking about it.......look how hard it is to go 140 in a week of football without the lines...........there is no way.

[Seaweed]

I can't believe The Giant hasn't made an appearance in this thread yet. I was an eye witness to one of the most groundbreaking achievements in history. It was a sunny afternoon in the spring of 1992 and me and The Giant were celebrating the completion of his perfect bracket after Duke knocked off Michigan in the Final. We were sipping Pina Coladas in his backyard by the pool listening to Beethoven and enjoying life. The Giant was the most popular man on the block that day. Neighborhood kids were lining up trying to get his picture, and girls were peaking over fences to get a glimpse of his beach body. The divorce rate increased on that day almost 75%. I really miss those days, it was a glorious time.

[OMGRandyJackson]

ANyone remember that bitch ass dad from I think Chicago in 2010? Hoaxed everyone into thinking his autistic kid picked a perfect bracket. ESPN and all kinds of news outlets picked it up.

EDIT:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/8632/autistic-teen-picks-perfect-bracket

Espn links to the "perfect bracket" but the dad duped CBS or some shit, I forget all the details.

[FindTheLock]

Mike, that may be true for 63 independent events with two possible outcomes, assuming the probability of each outcome is a fair 50/50. Like flipping heads 63 times in a row. Im sure to flip a coin and have it land on heads 63 times in a row is around 1 in 9 quintillion.

However, thats comparing apples to oranges. Because we have a good idea who's gonna win a lot of the games. We know the #1 seeds will win in the first round. Over 90% chance all #1 AND #2 seeds win their first round games. So that's 8 games out of the mix now. So we just went from having to pick the outcome of 63 events to 55 events and that alone will likely cut the odds in half, if not more. Odds are also heavily favored that all #1-#3 seeds will win. And so on.

So the true odds are nowhere near 1 in 9 quintillion. I'll concede to 1 in 128billion because Im not going to take the time to figure it out exactly.

it's simple math. 2^55 assuming there are only 55 games with 2 results for each game

[FindTheLock]

2^55 is 3.602879702E16 or 36,028,797,020,000,000,000,000,000

[yisman]

ANyone remember that bitch ass dad from I think Chicago in 2010? Hoaxed everyone into thinking his autistic kid picked a perfect bracket. ESPN and all kinds of news outlets picked it up.

EDIT:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/8632/autistic-teen-picks-perfect-bracket

Espn links to the "perfect bracket" but the dad duped CBS or some shit, I forget all the details.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...l#post18134530