[The HG]

We set our own NCAA totals at Ganchrow, using both statistical and research-based factors. We only set even numbers. Feel free to add questions or comments, and to agree or disagree. I won't be able to post them every day since the games come rapid-fire in Jan-March, but I'll post as many as I can for discussion purposes. NCAA totals are treacherous but also fun to do, and there can sometimes be a lot of value in them.

Wisc 138
Butler 128
Louisville 140
W Mich 130 (32?)
Mich 132 (34?)
Towson 132 (30?)
Auburn 148 (50? mid 50s?)
Rutgers 124
Rhode Island 144
Niagara 148 (a tick higher?)
Arkansas 138
N Orl 146
Utah 140 (42?)
Iowa St (no number set, either upper 30s or 50s equally likely)
Ap St (no number likely, but most likely is 150)
Cincy 136 (with a reasonable chance it could go much higher)
Princeton 100
Ill Chicago 144 (42?)
Tennessee 154 (56?)
Detroit 132
Georgia 160
Wright St 124 (22?)
Wash St 126(??, NRidge likely to be held down in scoring by Wash St)
Xavier 130 (28?)
Syracuse 138
BYU 144 (last year went to 171, could go way high again)
San Diego 148
Stanford 128 (30?)
Toledo 134
Notre Dame 138
VCU 128
Dayton 126 (careful, could go higher if a blowout)
Ark LR 128 (26?)
St Louis 132 (34?)
Loyola Chi 128
Missouri St 138 (36?)
Drake (no number, will Drake or Iowa control the pace?)
Alabama (no number)
Boise St 152 (50?)
Weber St 126
UTEP 150
San Diego St 144 (46?)
Washington (no number)
Pepperdine 156 (58?)
Fresno St (no number)
Nevada 130

[goldengoat]

so these are the totals you forsee for this saturday's games involving each team

what kind of discrepancy are you looking for before you make a move on a game?

[The HG]

each game has a very different confidence number, which is a result of NCAA teams in general being so mercurial and inconsistent. so for instance, the pitt/wisconsin game has a relatively high confidence number, while the N Ill/Michigan game has a relatively low number. obviously, if a total is off a certain amount, it will mean more the higher the confidence number is.

but having said that, a general rule of thumb is, if the line is 4-6 points off, we look at 1/2 unit, 6-8, one unit, 8-10, 2 units, and more than that, maybe 3 units. our NCAA unit size is much much smaller than our NBA unit size. in the 2 or 3 unit range, we also sometimes add one or more units for an intentional takeback middle later on. also, if we make a bet and the line crosses ours and passes it the other way, we will sometimes take it back for a middle as well.

but as i said, the confidence number plays a big part in the amount we bet. in the Ap St/Georgia Southern game for example, we probably wouldn't bet more than one unit no matter what the line comes out as, because the confidence number for that game is so low. But if the Duquesne/Niagara game came out at 140, that would be a quick 2 unit bet for us because the confidence number for that game is fine.

[goldengoat]

ok i'm gonna check this thread when the lines come out and then again after the games are over saturday to see how you did

i realize only the actual plays matter but this is interesting to see since you put it out well in advance

i have been playing a few nba totals and trying to gauge which teams force the other teams to play their tempo more such as fast tempo teams like GS and PHX and slower ones like MEM and MINN (and specifically when these styles clash)

[Jay Edgar]

[rob]

Excellent work. Thanks for sharing.