[SBRforum Staff]

Go Governors +23 at Tigers

Game Time: 12/14/2006 9:00:00 PM

By: Dave Cokin
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Known more for producing teachers than basketball players, Austin Peay hits the hardwood at the FedEx Forum this evening to take on #19 Memphis in a Tennessee rivalry. With all the points the home Tigers are having to lay against the Governors, the right play in this one is David instead of Goliath.

Austin Peay and Memphis are clearly teams at different levels with the Tigers huge favorites in tonight's matchup for a very good reason. But Memphis is not in anything close to peak form presently, and the Tigers have dropped their last four games to the number.
Go Governors +23 at Tigers

Memphis enters this one 7-2 on the season and 1-0 in early Conference USA play. They topped then-#22 Kentucky before Thanksgiving to ignite a 4-game win streak before coming out dead at the start of their game in Knoxville on Dec 6 and dropping a 76-58 decision to Tennessee.

Chris Douglas-Roberts (So, 6-6) leads the Tigers with a 15.4 scoring average, also adding five boards and a pair of assists each game. Kareem Cooper (So, 6-11) and Robert Dozier (So, 6-9) lead the team in rebounding while guards Andre Allen (Jr, 5-10) and Antonio Anderson (So, 6-6) are Memphis' playmakers in the assist column.

Austin Peay is 3-4 overall and 2-1 in Ohio Valley Conference action. The Governors opened the year with three losses, including an 80-35 embarrassment at Illinois, but have since won three of their last four games. AP stat leaders are Drake Reed (So, 6-5) with just under 15 points per game, Fernandez Lockett (Jr, 6-5) with 7.4 rebounds and Derek Wright (Jr, 5-9) with 3.0 assists.

The visiting Governors are playing closer to their normal level of expectation than is Memphis right now, and with that being the case, grabbing the huge number here is not a bad idea. I'll take Austin Peay plus that massive spread for Thursday.

Play: Austin Peay +23

[bigboydan]

I agree with this play. Austin P plus the points in the right side in this game.

[Illusion]

I like AP +24 and the under (141) tonight.

[silenthyena]

Are you kidding me? This is the same Austin Peay that lost to Ark. St. by 7 whom Memphis beat by 26, the same Austin Peay that lost to Illinois by 45. I wouldnt touch this with a ten foot pole, you guys must like taking risks.

[bigboydan]

you guys must like taking risks.

na, just gamble bud

Austin P has played very solid hoops since that woodshed job they suffered at the hands of IL a while back. If you do crunch the numbers you too will see where we are finding this value from.

[silenthyena]

I can understand it really I can, but this is a game Memphis will be trying to run the score up, teams with hardly a name they go out and try and humiliate them.

[Illusion]

AP kept it close in the second half, but unfortunately they played the first half.

[bigboydan]

I hate losing by a half a freaking point like this

[silenthyena]

No one ever listens to me.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

austin peay was definitely the right play here gentlemen... It seems that with spreads over 20 in college bball this year, the dog cashes about 3 of 4 games... The dogs usually come in with a backdoor cover job it seems like...

[silenthyena]

If they didnt cover then it wasnt the right play.

[Odrod]

If they didnt cover then it wasnt the right play.

agreed. I've never understood why people say this.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

If they didnt cover then it wasnt the right play.

Your missin the point here bud... The point is you don't lay 23 points unless the team is absolutely a world beater... Memphis was fresh off an 18 point drubbing at the hands of Tennessee last week... Taking any team getting 20 or more points is almost always the right play... Look at the statistics this year with teams getting 20 or more... I don't know for sure, but I bet you will find 2 out of every 3 have covered the spread...

BBD, Illusion- Please have a conversation with silenthyena... I know Austin was complaining about him last night...

Silenthyena- If you are just going to criticize people's plays then don't say anything at all... I'm not saying that I'm the best capper in the world, but there are people on here that know a hell of a lot more than you do...

[bigboydan]

BBD, Illusion- Please have a conversation with silenthyena... I know Austin was complaining about him last night...

P2M, I don't feel theres really nothing to talk about here. silenthyena was on the right side of this game, and I gotta give him his props for it.

On the other hand I lost this game and i'm not gonna try and say I was on the right side and say i got screwed. This is why they call it gambling bud.

BTW, Congrats silenthyena

[silenthyena]

I dont mean to offend guys at all Im in this like everyone else. Memphis lost to an SEC team, totally different than an Austin Peay, with that embarrassement my reasoning was that Memphis was gonna try and kill AP, but either way it was so close and that is the reason I didnt wager on this one, was just too hard to tell. I know alot about the Memphis program though here in Alabama and attend UAB where Gene Bartow coached and got all of his player out of Memphis, he is now in the Memphis Grizzlies front office. UAB now has alot of Memphis players on their team.

[rickyg50]

What joke that game was. I got AP at +24 1/2 and they lose by 25! You gotta be kidding me!