1. #1
    RetardStrength
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    These dogs are gettng too many points tonight...

    Agree/Disagree?

    Indiana +1.5
    LSU +8
    South Ill +14.5
    Wyoming +11

    I will be re-firing my thread soon. This has been one of my toughest NCAA bball betting seasons in as long as I can remember. It's discouraging when your systems and angles fail you time in and out. I like to deliver 1 SOLID play to the forum, and when things were consistently becoming upside down, I take a step back... I jumped back in about 2 weeks ago, testing some new strategies and trying to consider some angles that seem to be holding some better value this season. Re-examining teams "true" capabilities... Consider 2 of the above plays likely for me for this evening. They are holding strong value with my new considerations... Strong leans are LSU and South Ill. Will likely scratch Indy and Wyo...

    Indiana feels a little suspect against MS in this spot. I feel like Izzo has been scheming this game for quite some time. Clearly their defense will show up, but what kind of offensive effort will they bring?

    If I looked up inconsistency in the dictionary there would be a picture of the Wyoming mens bball team. A total skid. I lost some money on them badly during that stretch in late Jan. Granted, SDS is not the most consistent team either, but they're playing this game on their turf is highly favorable for them, as seen in their record... The line just seems inflated over 10 points. Wyoming, realistically, should be able to lose by less than that. Pulling the trigger on this is a game-time decision, as it's late so can see how other things go first...

    BOL everyone!

  2. #2
    2daBank
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    i thought the vols line was a little high but havnt been able to get myself to pull the trigger on lsu..didnt look at siu gm all that closely but dogs run the mvc so it would either be them or pass,,, thought mia laying 8.5 to uva was like 3.5 points to high so grabbed uva early on..no interest in betting against sparty at home and didnt look much at the wyo gm either prob passing on both.,..gl RS

  3. #3
    RetardStrength
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    i thought the vols line was a little high but havnt been able to get myself to pull the trigger on lsu..didnt look at siu gm all that closely but dogs run the mvc so it would either be them or pass,,, thought mia laying 8.5 to uva was like 3.5 points to high so grabbed uva early on..no interest in betting against sparty at home and didnt look much at the wyo gm either prob passing on both.,..gl RS
    This is part of my "new" system in looking closely at the conference play. Creighton is a team that still wins games, but they've become much more vulnerable ATS. It pops out to me when they are laying this many points inter-conference this late in the season.

    I too, considered UVA but I'm avoiding after Miami got lucky against Clemson Sun night... They should not have won that game. I think they re-group a little bit tonight and I'm wondering which UVA squad shows up in Florida! If anything, Miami is "due" but I'm not quite sure this is the game I pull the trigger on for a loss or a non-cover. I had Clemson on Sunday night, as I thought that was "the one" so while I'm happy I won money, I was somewhat pissed at Clemson bending over defensively with so little time left, after playing so hard all game and really battling.

    Wyoming could win outright, so that's why 11 points is just almost laughable in this spot. SDS just plays better ball at home, and I feel that the Mountain West is just a huge crapshoot...

  4. #4
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by RetardStrength View Post
    Agree/Disagree?

    Indiana +1.5
    LSU +8
    South Ill +14.5
    Wyoming +11

    I will be re-firing my thread soon.

  5. #5
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by RetardStrength View Post
    This is part of my "new" system in looking closely at the conference play. Creighton is a team that still wins games, but they've become much more vulnerable ATS. It pops out to me when they are laying this many points inter-conference this late in the season.

    I too, considered UVA but I'm avoiding after Miami got lucky against Clemson Sun night... They should not have won that game. I think they re-group a little bit tonight and I'm wondering which UVA squad shows up in Florida! If anything, Miami is "due" but I'm not quite sure this is the game I pull the trigger on for a loss or a non-cover. I had Clemson on Sunday night, as I thought that was "the one" so while I'm happy I won money, I was somewhat pissed at Clemson bending over defensively with so little time left, after playing so hard all game and really battling.

    Wyoming could win outright, so that's why 11 points is just almost laughable in this spot. SDS just plays better ball at home, and I feel that the Mountain West is just a huge crapshoot...
    i respect the coach so i suspect that after letting unc go ape shit on them they will have a renewed sense of defense tonight (like the under as well), just think this will be a real grind it out affair where 60 points be enough to win, hard for me to pass that many points in a gm i think is played that low...

    ill look into wyo some after i get back from the gym,unfortunately my times been somewhat limited this yr so i havnt followed some conferences as closely as others so not as up to speed with the mountain west and few others..

  6. #6
    RetardStrength
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post


    Good to see you back in action! I tailed you on that UNDER last night, and I had Rutgers bet in before I clicked on your thread so I was happy to see us on the same side!

  7. #7
    Louisvillekid1
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  8. #8
    Louisvillekid1
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    I think butler is giving too many points tonight, but couldn't pull the trigger on the dukes...

  9. #9
    Sir_Don_Yeggins
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    I love LSU... They are a solid squad and can easily go in and win this game but I am going to take the points. This seems like the best bet tonight

  10. #10
    Dom177
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    Love Wyoming. Little beat up but I think SDS is too. I rode em first half of the year and hopefully can squeeze a few more out of tbem

  11. #11
    numismatist
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    Well I am on all of them except Indiana. I feel confident tonight. I think these are all solid plays, and I think the dogs are barking tonight.


  12. #12
    BlitzTheBooks
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    Have you taken a peak at the players out for Wyoming? Enough to account for an additional 2-3 points on the spread EASILY.

  13. #13
    BlitzTheBooks
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    Quote Originally Posted by numismatist View Post
    Well I am on all of them except Indiana. I feel confident tonight. I think these are all solid plays, and I think the dogs are barking tonight.

    Dogs went 8-1 yesterday. Have to wonder if things will correct today

  14. #14
    curtrambus
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    Good to see you back Strength me and you were both getting hammered at the same time. I stopped my thread and then started stroking again I'm up 2k on the season now hope you turn things around.

  15. #15
    numismatist
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlitzTheBooks View Post
    Dogs went 8-1 yesterday. Have to wonder if things will correct today
    I dunno, I remember reading a story at another site I will not name here there was a week in the middle of January where the dogs were hitting at 70%.

  16. #16
    BlitzTheBooks
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    Quote Originally Posted by numismatist View Post
    I dunno, I remember reading a story at another site I will not name here there was a week in the middle of January where the dogs were hitting at 70%.
    It'd make sense. Nothing in the rules say Vegas has to be accurate. If they can take peoples money on fav's, why not do it. They know novice gamblers love the favs.

    Lot of public money heavy on favs again today (Texas, Marquette, Butler, Valpo, SDSU, Creighton). Thankfully, I'm only on two of those favs (1 unit on MARQ, 1/2 unit on SDSU).

  17. #17
    RetardStrength
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlitzTheBooks View Post
    It'd make sense. Nothing in the rules say Vegas has to be accurate. If they can take peoples money on fav's, why not do it. They know novice gamblers love the favs.

    Lot of public money heavy on favs again today (Texas, Marquette, Butler, Valpo, SDSU, Creighton). Thankfully, I'm only on two of those favs (1 unit on MARQ, 1/2 unit on SDSU).
    Gambling 101...

    The "house" always wins, in the end... Just like any table game you play. One way or another, the odds ALWAYS favor the house. In sports betting, vegas is razor sharp with the lines, and feeds off the degenerate gambler who finds value ONLY in favorites. Consider Vegas the dog side of a bet, and the player the favorite... Vegas certainly takes its hits, but when these novices and degens (majority of gamblers) go balls to the wall on a heavy fav, and it loses, profits will exceed losses 10 fold...

  18. #18
    jinxpro13
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    wyoming blows chunks on the road.. shit they almost just lost to fresno state at home. Already missing their best player(martinez).. now gonna be without their 2nd best player, Leonard Washington tonight.. he seemed to be their only source of rebounds and points down low.

  19. #19
    RetardStrength
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    Wyo is a no play

  20. #20
    Nomadik
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    Quote Originally Posted by jinxpro13 View Post
    wyoming blows chunks on the road.. shit they almost just lost to fresno state at home. Already missing their best player(martinez).. now gonna be without their 2nd best player, Leonard Washington tonight.. he seemed to be their only source of rebounds and points down low.
    ^^^ This

  21. #21
    RetardStrength
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    You guys are right. Making it a no play as mentioned.

    A no play because even given the factors you mentioned, it's still too many points to make a play on the other side

  22. #22
    Dom177
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    Its like wyoming forgot they had a game last night. 13 points in the first half

  23. #23
    RetardStrength
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    Yes stayed away from WYO thanks primarily to some info shared here. I couldn't bring myself to bet the other side, still..

    I played LSU, Indiana, South Ill and Ind State... LSU and Indy St just couldn't quite hang within the threshold, unfortunately...

  24. #24
    2daBank
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    provo catching too many tonight..only dog i have played thus far, still searching..

  25. #25
    RetardStrength
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    As for tonight...

    These dogs are getting too many points...

    Providence +12.5
    Syracuse plays very well at home....Duhhhh, but everyone should be impressed with Providence as of late. If there is one thing they ride tonight, it's confidence. Them getting over 10 pts here is too many

    UMASS +3.5
    Bonnies are not going to win this game

    Vandy +11
    Are you kidding me? Vegas still giving Kentucky waaayyy too much respect. Vandy having a real tough stretch lately but they played Kent close at home the first time around... Over 10 points in this spot is an absolute joke Kent sporting no M. Noel...

    Kansas +1
    I will never be sold on this OK St team... They have talent in 1 or 2 spots. I think Kansas plays them much bigger than other teams tonight, and the defense is going to lock up Brown and Smart, just wait... Kansas needs this game much more than Ok St as proof they aren't sliding out of control. I look at this spot just like I look at Indiana last night. Coming into a very hostile environment and just being the better team.

    North Dakota +7
    Too many pts. ND a better team this time around. I don't care how much they lost by in the first matchup

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