After a few of these threads I've come to a few conclusions.
I'm not that great at picking single games.
If I do just 2 teasers a day (depending on the games available) I either win both or break even.
And lastly, 3/4 of the time a teased underdog already given between 4-20 points will be a winner.
It is indeed at -110, but in my experience it is way easier to pick 3 teams to give 8 points to then to pick 1 team to win the point spread.
If I put down $11 twice on two teasers to win $10 twice and I win one and lose one then I lose $1.
Most games either miss the point spread by a point or two OR the dog wins outright.
And as I said at the top, I'm a big fan of giving points to dogs because they have more to play for, especially when they're home.
All you have to do is analyze some statistics and figure out how likely a dog team will lose by the point spread + the 8-points given to them.
I really think LSU, Mizzou, and Butler will win SU, but giving them 8-points greatly increases my chances of winning the bet should Mizzou and LSU lose by a dozen points.
And Mizzou and Butler did indeed end up winning and LSU kept it under a dozen deficit. My so called sucker bets both won.
Today's 8-point teasers coming soon...
And after last night that brings my record up to 4-0. The only game that was close was my Bama teaser. Tonight with less games I should be able to pick out 2 teasers, but I'm still debating that.
Picks to come in a bit...
I heave been leaning towards the favorites lately, and I did consider some underdogs, but there was just too much doubt on if an injured player would be back or not on most of them. If I had to pick one I'm more confident about the Ark, WKU, Ill one.
So, I have a list of teams that are inconsistent and just plain awful at times and Illinois goes on that list. They played so terribly that I'd say it was an absolute miracle they beat IU, ever. I don't have the exact stats but I think I estimated their shooting percentage at around 30%.
The best I would have done is push since Arkansas blew their decent lead in the second half. Once again, I have no freaking clue how they beat Florida at home if they can barely beat an average Georgia team.
Whatever... 5-1 is not bad, but from the looks of the games on Friday my next plays won't be until Saturday.
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