[Magnificent]

First post here. I'm a self proclaimed college BBall junkie. I have my own methods (as do we all) of projecting/predicting outcomes. Sometimes certain things take more weight than other, and sometimes those same reasons hold less weight. I'm still learning and processing information everyday (which is the key to continued success).

I was attracted to this total. I liked the Under because Detroit played at Youngstown a few weeks back and blew them out 101-60. In that game Detroit shot the ball 77 times and had a fg% of 53. Detroit avgs 60 shots a game and YSU avgs 60 shots allowed per game. Det avg fg% is 44.5 and YSU avg allowed fg% is 41%.

Based on these numbers alone, I cant see a repeat performance of Det putting up the numbers in which they did in the first meeting. Btw, YSU's #'s were in line with their season averages in the first meeting.

My main concern is in another place where I put some weight to my selections. That would be Public pick percentage. When I first was choosing the line, the public was 88% on the under (which is in range of it being a red flag for me to pick). Anything over 90% I just will not play (rare exception). The total was 154 and then dropped to 153.5, then 152.5, then all of a sudden up to 155, and back down to 154, and 154.5. It jumped straight from 152.5 to 155, which in my eyes means there was some heavy insider bet at that moment. The percentage at that time also dropped from mid to high 80 range for public, to 65-68% during that line switch.

I want to know what these line jumps and drops and the public pick percentage swing means in everyones eyes. I'm curious how much weight you guys put into that, or if your hard nosed reasearch is all that you lean on, regardless of public perception. Thanks for reading, I look forward to responses, and post your take in the game if you have one as well.

Signed,
Mr. Magnificent!

[El Sol]

Swings like this are common in the smaller betting markets which makes hard to interpret. Often its due to a specialist releasing a pick or information.

[Magnificent]

Ahhh...something as common as a Specialist releasing a pick? I didnt think of that. Makes sense. I still want to say that it may be more than a "Jay Bilas selection" or someone along those lines. Well I have the line at 154 and was contemplating a re-investment at 155, but I normally wouldnt reinvest on a total for only a point. Either way, I did my research and am pleased with my calculated decision. I'm not in the business of piggybacking on anyone else picks as it has left me with a bad taste after a loss in the past. I'm sure we all have our gambler junkie moment at one time or another, where we couldnt figure out what to bet, so instead of laying off we seeked improper advise with a hope and a dream only for the line to be nowhere in contention! lol

Thanks for the response! Go Under 154...way under i hope!

[El Sol]

Ahhh...something as common as a Specialist releasing a pick? I didnt think of that. Makes sense. I still want to say that it may be more than a "Jay Bilas selection" or someone along those lines. Well I have the line at 154 and was contemplating a re-investment at 155, but I normally wouldnt reinvest on a total for only a point. Either way, I did my research and am pleased with my calculated decision. I'm not in the business of piggybacking on anyone else picks as it has left me with a bad taste after a loss in the past. I'm sure we all have our gambler junkie moment at one time or another, where we couldnt figure out what to bet, so instead of laying off we seeked improper advise with a hope and a dream only for the line to be nowhere in contention! lol

Thanks for the response! Go Under 154...way under i hope!

Good example of that was RAS sports a couple of years back. His college and WNBA picks would consistently and immediately moves lines, they still might,...