SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Kansas v. Kansas St. (Write up) - Hopefully a pick later.
KU v. KSU +3.5
I came into this game with a slight lean towards KU ATS or KU ML, but after a looking a bit more into it, I feel the numbers tend to side with KSU (outside of one glaring trend).
I am incredibly familiar with Kansas, but am less versed on KSU – outside of McGruder of course.
The numbers for this game, or at least the ones I look at, show that this is setup to be a great game. Both are sweet 16 or better teams. The back-story of the coaches. The fact that Manhattan is going to bring the ruckus.
Just a game I know I am going to have action on tonight, so I figured it might as well be an informed dart chuck. (writing it out helps)
KANSAS:
15 wins in a row 7-9 ATS
*Avg 68 possessions and 76 pts per game, yet have failed to score 70 pts in 4 of their last 5 games.
*Kansas has an outstanding overall efficiency rating (.238), and possess a better than average road efficiency rating (.171).
Their style of play is an Uptempo-balanced game – this allows them to basically play with anyone’s style except for maybe the uber-slow paced teams out there (but everyone struggles in those games).
Most “experts” have Kansas winning by 4. (stat guys, not ESPN heads).
Won 44 of last 47 meetings between the two, and Self has absolutely owned them in Manhattan. Think the only loss they have there is when Beasley hit some crazy shot to win.
History between the coaches, as Weber made his best run at Illinois on the back of the players Self brought into the program.
- In my opinion, I think Kansas is currently playing their worst basketball of the season, their players are getting fat and happy and that is a serious concern around the team. Withey has played inconsistent, although McClemore has really stepped it up in conference, which is saying something considering the level he was playing at non-conference.
The main matchup(s) in this game is how Releford guards McGruder, and how Spalding matches up and guards McClemore.
KANSAS ST:
8 wins in a row 6-6-1 ATS
*Avg 65 possessions and 68 points per game. They run a truly balanced system, maybe bordering on the slower side.
Has a decent overall efficiency (.135), but that is still considerably lower than Kansas. Considering the game will most likely have 66 possessions, efficiency is a big thing in this game. Even more so considering everyone is thinking this goes down to the wire and free throw contest.
HOWEVER, where it gets positive for KSU is that they have an outstanding and Kansas-esque home efficiency rating (.238). Which if you are one of those who like to compare road vs. home numbers, see that this is a significant jump in production and also speaks to what a good Home Court advantage Manhattan has.
*Staying with efficiency ratings a bit more and why it benefits KSU, over the last 3 games Kansas has a .097 efficiency rating. That number is downright bad. That low of a rating is seen in teams that are on the bubble come selection Sunday. In contrast, over the last 3 games KSU has an efficiency rating of 1.23. This is important insofar as the last 3 games consist of conference foes for both squads, which means the level of competition is relatively similar as conference play sets up a whole new set of trends and numbers.
The coaching aspect, while interesting – probably matters little in this game. Weber isn’t a terrible coach, and he does give a slight dimension of unfamiliarity which proves to be positive to the newcomer for the first couple games.
A very big factor is how big the home court is for Kansas St in this game. It is going to be an insane atmosphere, as KSU is the number 11 ranked team hosting in state rivals and the no. 3 ranked team in the nation. In games such as this, I always feel better taking the home team. The way the crowd has effected official’s calls over and over again is one of many reasons (see: McKale Center Colorado v. Arizona).
So, with all that said, and taking into account the other underlying basic capping numbers, it points to taking KSU and the points. While it is true that there are no “true” key numbers in basketball, I still feel that 3 and 7 remain important. Getting the hook makes it even nicer.
I haven’t made a play on this game yet, because I want to see what the line and percentages say the closer we get to tip. However, as rare as it is for me to play teasers, I really like Teasing KSU up and grabbing L’ville and teasing them down. (the numbers for the L’ville game are ridiculous, coming off an embarrassing upset – they’re going for blood).
Finally, depending on the number the books hang, based on the offensive struggles of Kansas recently combined with the style of Kansas St., the under might be worth considering.
If anyone else has any insight, that would be awesome. Mainly a KSU homer.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Grits n' Gravy
