[Redak]

COLLEGE
4 Star Selection
Idaho State (+22 1/2) over TEXAS A&M
25-Nov-06 12:00 PM Pacific Time
Idaho State is one of the most improved teams in the nation thanks to first year head coach Joe O’Brien teaching a group of pretty good scorers to play tough defensively. The Bengals have allowed just 37.5% shooting to a schedule of good shooting teams. Idaho State lost by just 3 points at Marquette as a 21 ½ point dog, by just 6 points at BYU as a 16 point dog and by only 6 points at Washington State as a 16 point dog. The Bengals are still not getting the respect that they deserve given that my ratings favor Texas A&M by just 18 points in this game. In addition to the line value the Bengals apply to two good big underdog situations – a 195-100-8 ATS situation and a 201-104-7 ATS situation that combine to go 30-12-2 ATS when both apply to the same game. I’ll take Idaho State in a 4-Star Best Bet at +22 points or more, for 3-Star at +21 or +21 ½ points, and for 2-Stars at +20 ½ or +20 points.

[Redak]

NBA
Opinion
ORLANDO (-7) over Atlanta
25-Nov-06 04:05 PM Pacific Time
Orlando lost at Atlanta earlier this month but the Magic qualify in a solid 188-98-6 ATS home favorite revenge situation tonight. However, my ratings only favor Orlando by 6 points after factoring in the absence of Grant Hill for the Magic and Josh Childress for Atlanta. The situation isn’t good enough to give up line value, so I’ll consider the Magic an opinion at -7 or less and I would take Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.

COLLEGE
4 Star Selection
Illinois State (+9 ½) over ST. JOHN’S
25-Nov-06 04:30 PM Pacific Time
A lot was expected of St. John’s this season with 5 starters returning from last year’s young team. However, the Red Storm have only been 1 ½ points better this season so far than they were last year and they haven’t been as good as Illinois State has been this season. The Redbirds lost some scoring from last season, but they’ve got more players willing to play defense and they’ve allowed just 39% shooting in their 4 games. Illinois State is particularly good at defending the 3 point line, allowing opponents to only 12 attempts per game at 21% success. That’s important against a St. John’s team that shoots 21 long range shots per game at 43% success. The Red Storm are a horrible 43% from inside the 3-point arc (48% is average on 2-pointers), so Illinois State should be able to limit the Johnnie’s scoring if they continue to defend the 3-point arc as they have. Illinois State has played better in their 4 games this season than St. John’s has in their 4 games and using this year’s games only would favor St. John’s by only 1 ½ points in this game. My current ratings, which still incorporate my preseason ratings, favor the Red Storm by only 5 ½ points and there is no way I could justify the line as high as it is (my preseason numbers would have only favored St. John’s by 8 points and Illinois State is obviously better than I anticipated). The Redbirds apply to a very good 95-32- 2 ATS situation and Missouri Valley Conference teams continue to be under-valued. Teams from the MVC are now 52-24-5 ATS as regular season non-conference underdogs of 3 points or more, including 6-3-1 ATS for Illinois State in that role. I’ll take Illinois State in a 4-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more, for 3-Stars at +8 ½ or +8 and for 2-Stars at +7 ½ or +7.

2 Star Selection
Weber State (+14) over UTAH STATE
25-Nov-06 06:05 PM Pacific Time
Weber State and Utah State have already played once, at a neutral site last Sunday. Utah State won that game 68-55. Both teams made 51% of their shots and the game would have been a lot closer if not for Weber State’s -7 turnover margin (18 to 11). Based on season statistics the turnover margin should be 3 in favor of Utah State, so the Wildcats were more sloppy than they’d normally be. Weber State still would have lost by 9 points or so had the turnovers been what was expected and my ratings favor Utah State by 14 points here at home. The reason for playing Weber State in the rematch is a 146- 70-2 ATS big road underdog situation that favors the Wildcats. That angle has been a consistent winner for me and I’ll take Weber State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.