CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS (15-1) @ MISSOURI STATE BEARS (5-11)
Creighton -14 O/u 127
This is a very intriguing game on this short card tonight. Missouri St has seemed to turned their season around going 3-1 since conference play started fresh of a nice win against a very solid Illinois St squad. Their only loss has came in overtime on the road to an Evansville team that has been quite impressive. This conference has had a crazy start to the year and this game might add to that.
Last season the Bears beat the Jays on their home floor and then in the rematch they only lost by 1 point. There are a few reasons why Missouri St matches up well w/ this Creighton team. First, the Bears do an excellent job defending the 3 point shot and we all know the Bluejays love the deep ball. Secondly, Missouri St is able to somehow control the pace in their previous matchups. The under has hit 8 out of the last 9 times when playing in Springfield. It has also hit 6 out the last 7 overall.
The line is telling me something when you have a 14 point road favorite that averages 80ppg and then set the total at only 127.
Now after the very tough games last year, does Creighton come into this match-up focused and ready on a friday night road game?
I think the pace could bother and frustrate them tonight at least early on. The Bears come out and play tough on their home court feeding off last years confidence as well as their current 3-1 streak.
Creighton is a scary team to bet against but I think the line is set too high in this spot because the Bluejays have gone 11-3 ATS so far this year.
I'm going to take the big home dog in this conference matchup friday night
Missouri St +8 1h 0.4x
Missouri St +14 0.4x
Missouri St +900 0.2x