[Capybara]

NCAA RLM: Fukk yes, sign me up!

NBA RLM: Meh, not so much.

I mean I haven't done an official study cataloging the results or anything, but I've noticed like every single RLM play in NCAA hoops hitting. And I'm counting the ones that don't technically have enough plays to qualify. Like just every time I see the line moving away from the public percentage, even if it's only 1,000 plays as opposed to 10,000. Because I think any amount of plays is still a cross-section.

It's nutty, but it seems like either the NCAA-betting public are dumber, or the NCAA-betting sharps or sharper.

Oh, regarding NFL, I trust my own analysis more and don't pay much attention, or if I notice it, it still doesn't affect my decision either way.

[ebbearsfb1]

one thing i've noticed is a lot of

road favorites with high public percentages have been cashing alot recently in the nba..

its like books are saying here is some freebies, cause were gonna take your money when you bet more on sunday

[Capybara]

The first two I glance at tonight, again, same thing...

64% on Western Kentucky getting 16.5, but line goes up to 18.5... VA Commonwealth destroys them, winning by 39 right now.

55% on Ohio State -30 but line drops back to -27.5... Ohio State locked in a tight one all game, win by 10.

I just keep seeing it over and over in college. Might have to just start auto-playing these games?

[ebbearsfb1]

capybara,

what site do you look at for %?

[Capybara]

Free:

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx?sport=

[Jimmy Proffett]

Western Illinois tonight was another classic case.

[byronbb]

Doc mentioned something about steam chasers in basketball in his last "Weekend Report" with Loshak, saying they are running good now but will get killed after december....

[Capybara]

Western Illinois tonight was another classic case.

YES, I totally cashed this! Saw they were down 2 with 2H -3 and pounded it since I'd noticed the strong RLM. Easy-peasy, they win by 16.

I think I may have to start playing all of these, as it really seems like its hitting around 70% or more. But just for the record, I know my "test" will be a subjective one, as I don't measure RLM as rigidly as others do.

[Darkside Magick]

Doc mentioned something about steam chasers in basketball in his last "Weekend Report" with Loshak, saying they are running good now but will get killed after december....

Basically saying when teams get into conference play ...following rlm will
bury you

[Capybara]

I wouldn't call this steam-chasing, that's something else. This is just playing all NCAABB sides as soon as I notice RLM.

[ebbearsfb1]

What exactly is steam chasing?

[milwaukee mike]

What exactly is steam chasing?

when a line is moving up quickly (due to ras or other outside forces), and you bet it on the way up. especially at a shop that is slow to move their lines.

for example, marquette is -8.5 and within a minute the line jumps to -11. betting anything between -9 and -10.5 in that minute or after is considered "chasing steam" and is frowned upon by bookmakers.

[ebbearsfb1]

when a line is moving up quickly (due to ras or other outside forces), and you bet it on the way up. especially at a shop that is slow to move their lines.

for example, marquette is -8.5 and within a minute the line jumps to -11. betting anything between -9 and -10.5 in that minute or after is considered "chasing steam" and is frowned upon by bookmakers.

Gotcha..easy enough to understand.. makes sense as why books won't like it. Guess they will ban you if it happens often enough?..

So I guess betting rlm could be reverse steam in a sense... betting Milwaukee at.plus 7.5 and it going down to 6?

Unless your quick to the ball would seem difficult to steam chase.. books won't have to worry about me doing that..


I do like rlm and fading public road favorites though

[ebbearsfb1]

I wouldn't call this steam-chasing, that's something else. This is just playing all NCAABB sides as soon as I notice RLM.

I think to successfully do this you have to play every game that hits your parameters and also be consident in the time you play them.. I.e. 10 mins before game 30 mins etc

[InTheDrink]

if you want to hit precisely 50% of your plays, keep playing this angle long term

[ebbearsfb1]

if you want to hit precisely 50% of your plays, keep playing this angle long term

I think if you add in certain parameters you can do well..
Its difficult with college hoops cause there is so many games though..
Homes or away teams.. % .. points line moved

[Capybara]

Okay, Boys, I'm backing a BAKER'S DOZEN of teams tonight, either a unit or a half-unit if I wasn't crazy about the play... everything that either was CLEAR RLM, was MORE OR LESS RLM, or was kinda sorta/pretty f'n close to being RLM.... YES, I know they don't all meet rigid RLM criteria, but let's see how I do! It's all good, just havin' some fun and investigating my hypothesis!

I'm on:

Wisc GB +7
N. Iowa +10
Ohio -2
Florida Intl +27.5
Western Mich +4
Miami Ohio +7.5
Tulsa +20.5
N. Illinois +4.5
N. Arizona +2
UTEP +6
Ark St +2
Mt. St. Mary's +31
South Dakota +3