[hkarmy_kenny]

Joined SBR a few weeks ago and I really enjoy the discussion everyone has on the games. I will be posting plays mainly based off of mathematical models inspired Ken Pom / David Hess. These models output multiple sets of predicted margins which vary due to Adjusted Efficiencies, Strength of Schedule, Predicted Matchup Possessions and Predicted Points Per Possession.

My final margin prediction is finalized through comparing vegas implied, weight of home court advantage, other power ratings, rivalries, injuries etc and is mostly a product of my gut feeling.

If there is no unit attached, I did not place that wager, but just posting for our own research and to compare the actual game result.

Best of luck and I would appreciate your input and discussion!

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 14, 2012

MODEL ATS RECORD
7-4


***


Boise State -5.5 vs LSU 1u win
Boise wins by 6

Central FL -5 at Old Dominion 1u loss
Central FL wins by 7

Charlotte +8 at Miami FL loss
Miami FL wins by 6


***


I honestly don't have 100% confidence in these plays - todays card is terrible. However, I do recommend to wait until seeing any late sharp money before tipoff today and rolling with that.
Good Luck

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 15, 2012

MODEL ATS RECORD
8-6


***

IL Chicago -9.5 vs E Michigan 3u [win]

Louisville -3 at Memphis 2u[win]

Fordham +8 at Princeton 1u[win]

UC Irvine +7 at Fresno 2u

Oregon -13.5 vs Nebraska 3u[win]

Santa Clara +3 at Pacific 1u [win]

San Franciso +2.5 at Nevada 1u[loss]

Arizona State -14 vs. Dartmouth 1u [win]

Iowa -2.5 at N Iowa [win]

Akron (pk) at Detroit [loss]

Drake +7.5 vs Iowa State 2u[loss]

VCU -7 vs Alabama [win]

BYU -1.5 at Weber State 1u [win]


***

Late Adds

N Dakota -5 at Towson

S Dakota -2.5 vs. Ball State

UL Lafayette +3.5 at Houston

Valparaiso -7 at Missouri

Montana -2 at S Dakota St.

[hkarmy_kenny]

Adding N Dakota -5 at Towson.

Today's record currently 7-1

[hkarmy_kenny]

Adding S Dakota -2.5 vs Ball State 2u

[hkarmy_kenny]

Adding UL Lafayette +3.5 at Houston 1u

[16johnnymac]

I like your plays not sure if Houston& Dakota 's are the correct plays Houston is really tough at home good luck $ in the bank

[hkarmy_kenny]

Adding Valparaiso -7 at Missouri
Adding Montana -2 vs. S Dakota St.

[hkarmy_kenny]

I like you plays not sure if Houston& Dakota 's are the correct plays Houston is really tough at home good luck $ in the bank

Houston has played mostly weak teams but I do agree tough at home. I see UL LA keeping it close.

For Dakotas - they coming in with better offensive performance against harder opponents than who they play tonight.

BOL!

[hkarmy_kenny]

I like your plays not sure if Houston& Dakota 's are the correct plays Houston is really tough at home good luck $ in the bank

Good call johnny mac

12-6 today will have new plays tomorrow

[16johnnymac]

Any time your welcome

Good call johnny mac

12-6 today will have new plays tomorrow

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 16, 2012

MODEL ATS RECORD
20-12

***

Drexel +2.5 at Fairfield 2u [loss]

App State +3 at UMKC 2u [win]

Arkansas -13 vs Austin Peay 1u [loss]

***


Good luck! Please discuss!

[HatersGonnaHate]

Why app st?? The spread is low but i do think that UMKC is the better team

[hkarmy_kenny]

IMO App State has played harder opponents than UMKC and better offensively on paper.

They have the ability to win outright.

Key words : on paper

[Louisvillekid1]

Thanks for all the work you put in!

[TheeArchBishop]

Ou of all the games todY, I like App State the best. They are not as aweful as that record indicates.

[hkarmy_kenny]

Ou of all the games todY, I like App State the best. They are not as aweful as that record indicates.

Both App State and UMKC have shit defense so each won't have trouble scoring. Might be a shoot out

[HOT WINGS]

Good luck pal. Like Drexel, but opposite on App state

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 17, 2012

MODEL ATS RECORD
21-14

***


UNLV -6.5 at UT El Paso 2u [loss]

Montana +6 at Northern Arizona 2u [loss]

Oakland +3.5 vs Valparaiso 2u [win]

LA Tech -2 at AR Little Rock 1u [tie]

E Washington +6 vs UC Davis 1u

Santa Clara -11.5 vs Cal Poly 1u


2T TEASER Santa Clara -7.5 / E Washington +9.5 1u

2T TEASER Oakland +7.5 / Montana +10.5 1u [win]

***


Good luck! Please discuss!

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 18, 2012

MODEL ATS RECORD
23-19-1

***

Illinois Chicago +1.5 at W Illinois 2u

UC Irvine +1 vs LSU 1u

Miami FL -4 at Central Florida 1u

Wyoming -8 vs Denver 1u

VCU 1stHalf -10 vs W Kentucky 1u


***


Yesterday was a rough day on the plays and we were giving too much credit to away dogs. I found a pattern that should've pointed out not to play the Montana / E Washington games. However, it was just 1 day of data so it could've been a fluke. I will now only play Away Team picks that show a higher edge on the model prediction.

Miami FL -4 is an away play here and if they can dictate pace, they will be winning by 7+. Also, I do not feel the home team advantage will affect them as much since finals week + in Florida.

ILL-Chicago is RAS fade and has better stats across the board. They opened at -3 now +1.5....My RAS fades are 1-0. Montana yesterday should've been an RAS fade as well IMO.

I normally don't post 1H plays, however, W Kentucky missing its 2 best shooters and VCU goes hard in the 1st half. Also leaning 1H UNLV -7.5.

BEST OF LUCK

[Louisvillekid1]

gl, alot of guys on Miami and UIC...

Hope you guys cash those,

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 19, 2012

MODEL ATS RECORD
26-21-1

***

Oregon[1stHalf] -2.5 at UT El Paso 3u

Oregon -4.5 at UT El Paso 1u

Duquesne -4 vs W Michigan 1u

UNC -5 at Texas 1u

Cincinatti -8 vs Xavier 1u

Seattle -3 vs N Illinois 1u

New Mexico -4.5 at New Mexico St. 1u

Canisius +11.5 at Temple 1u


***


Vegas is giving more love to the dogs today but I am sticking to the model plays. I may be a good fade here due to square plays. Good luck.

[Louisvillekid1]

This model is very valuable to this forum,



I'm more of a gut/ X n O type of capper, but of course I study the stats as well. So this is something that's nice to combine that with...

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 20, 2012

MODEL ATS RECORD
31-24-1

***

Boise -12.5 vs Idaho 3u

Portland St -7.5 vs Idaho State 2u

Texas St. +5 at Central Michigan 1u

UC Irvine +9.5 at USC 1u

Michigan -14[1st Half] vs E Michigan 2u

***


My higher unit plays have been getting destroyed. Tread lightly.

NCAAF Tonight teased BYU +3 / Under 52. Also tailed Houli's play BYU/SD Un 24 1Half.

Good Luck and your input is appreciated

***

EDIT: Removed Washington -10 vs Cal Poly

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 21, 2012

MODEL ATS RECORD
34-26-1

***

Mid Tennessee -6 vs Vanderbilt 3u

Connecticut -16 vs Fordham 2u

UC Davis +10.5 vs Utah St 1u

Wyoming -13 vs UCSB 1u

Delaware -11.5 vs U Penn 1u

Montana -1 at U Sac State 1u

***

Good Luck and your input is appreciated

***

Edit : Removed Buffalo +8.5 (Jarod Oldham injured). Removed Colorado -16.5 at N Arizona.

[Louisvillekid1]

December 21, 2012

MODEL ATS RECORD
34-26-1

***

[hkarmy_kenny]

Look back at my units . Not keeping track but I'm damn well in the negative right now. U can thank the steelers too. Shout out to my big Ben backers who lost their ass like I have in the past 2 weeks hashtag chokeburg

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 28, 2012


MODEL ATS RECORD
37-29-1

***


Rutgers -10 vs Rider 2u win

Nevada -12 vs Yale 1u

Austin Peay +2 at Utah Valley 1u

Belmont -9.5 at Boston U 1u

Iona +8 at St. Josephs 1u








***
Back from holiday vacation. Best of luck everyone!

***

[hkarmy_kenny]

Results December 28, 2012


MODEL ATS RECORD
37-29-1

***


Rutgers -10 vs Rider 2u win

Nevada -12 vs Yale 1u

Austin Peay +2 at Utah Valley 1u

Belmont -9.5 at Boston U 1u

Iona +8 at St. Josephs 1u


***

[hkarmy_kenny]

December 31, 2012


MODEL ATS RECORD
40-31-1

***
TX San Antonio -2 vs San Jose St 2u

North Texas +14 at Middle Tennessee 2u

***


Adding more soon. Pls standby

[TheBetBuysDanK]

Nice thready, kenny. Not sure how im only NOW seeing it, but im glad i have. Will be checking in going forward. BOL in 2013.