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Hey Murray why do u think are sites are so far off in some games for public%? I guess after a week or 2 we will see the trend..last night ours were a lot closer then they were tonight an it seem liked tonight ur site was a little bit more valuable then mine.. Maybe tommorow I'll go off ur stats site idk just my state site cost me some units tonight..
[QUOTE=RG3ING;16780428]2-0 ytd
Tonight
Southern U +3 (won) +2 units
UAB +17 (push)
ARK LR +7 (loss) -2.2 units
1HSanta Clara +7 (w) + 2 units
Wizards +8.5 (w) + 2 units
Nebraska Omaha +13 (L)-2.2
2h Wyoming -7 (W) +2 units
4-2-1 +3.6 units
Toledo +10 (W) +2 units
5-2-1 + 5.6 units
Ytd 7-2-1 + 9.6 units
All my plays are 2 unit plays in this theory cause we should not have that many games that qualify each night so I'm looking to maximize profit.. Catch y'all tommorow great job an night Murray see ya tommorow bro
That's a good question and unfortunately I don't have an adequate answer. Because the consensus site I use doesn't say where it gets its data from it's hard to really find an answer. My only hunch is that the site you use uses data from one or two books and maybe mine does the same but using different books? Maybe my site gets its data from all sorts of different books or maybe your site does, idk. What I do know though is that I trust my sites numbers and because of that I will stick with it.Originally Posted by RG3ING
1H Southern U +1 -WIN
Southern U +3.5 -WIN
1H Santa Clara +7.5 -WIN
Santa Clara +12 -WIN
1H Arkansas LR +3.5 -LOSS
1H Nebraska Omaha +7.5 -WIN
Nebraska Omaha +13 -LOSS
Toledo (BB) +14 -WIN
Wizards +8.5 -WIN
Record in straight bets for tonight: 7-2
======================================
Toledo (FB) +16.5 / Under /69.5 -WIN
5Team Parlay:
Ohio +6.5 -LOSS
Toledo (BB) +15 -WIN
Toledo (FB) +9.5 -WIN
Santa Clara +11.5 -WIN
Southern U +3 -WIN
OVERALL RECORD WITH RLM SYSTEM: 8-2 +$269
Toledo kep the game close but ended up covering bringing my RLM bets to 8-2 tonight. Best day I've had to date. Lets keep it going boys.
Last edited by Murray Rothbard; 11-14-12 at 11:50 PM.
This theory also works with a favorite as long as there is RLM an the public is hammering the dog over 70% It looks like we might have a favorite jr 2 here from my numbers we will see later in the day how me an Murray's publics are matching up
Murray any leans yet on lines I don't have time to look til bout 4 30 tonight gonna keep checking this do I don't miss a early release by you
Looking at auburn game now tip is at 8 but it's looking good I'm showing auburn +5 open an it has dropped to +4 even with 74% on Murray state!! Murray what's ur site showing
Alright boys, here are my leans so far for today/tonight.
So Mississippi v Georgia opened at 5 down to 3.5 [78% / 118 bets] – [70% / 780 bets] 8pm
Murray St v Auburn opened at 6 down to 4/3.5 [75% / 96 bets] – [69% / 751 bets] 8pm
Tennessee Chatt v Kansas opened at 28 down to 27/26.5 [73% / 99 bets] – [71% / 689 bets] 8pm
Western Carolina v Wichita St opened at 18.5 down to 16 [72% / 85 bets] – [66% / 643 bets] 8pm
Tennessee St v Minnesota opened at 16 down to 15.5 [78% / 97 bets] – [72% / 645 bets] 8pm
SMU v TCU opened at 3.5 down to 3/2.5 [74% / 733 bets] 8pm
UTEP v Arizona opened at 9 down to 9/8.5 [88% / 120 bets] – [84% / 863 bets] 10pm
Cal Poly v N Colorado opened at 4 down to 2.5/2 [66% / 77 bets] – [70% / 596 bets] 10pm
Alright so here is an explanation of the above. Obviously the teams listed are all the teams that have RLM action. The blue brackets depict the percentage of the public on the favorite as well as the total amount of bets placed on that particular game as of 3am est when I first took a look.
The green brackets depict the percentage of the the public on the favorite as well as the total amounts of bets placed on that particular game as of now that I am posting this.
You will notice that SMU v TCU only has one bracket. This is because I just noticed this game as I was writing this.
Some other games I will be keeping my eye on but don't quite fit my theory are as follows:
Alabama v Oregon St - 7pm
Villanova v Purdue - 930pm
Idaho v Portland - 10pm
Tulsa v N Kentucky - 730pm
Last edited by Murray Rothbard; 11-15-12 at 10:52 AM.
Just locked in
Dayton1h +1.5
Dayton +3
Got a good capper insight!! Hope is right doesn't quite fit our system but trust the capper check back in when I can an Murray I like auburn to my book hasn't released the game yet damnit
Yes Auburn looks really good. Line is down 2+ pts and the public is still on them almost 70% according to my site.
Murray- so basically you are just tracking the line movements and seeing where they don't add up to the ammount of money coming in on them? Kinda like fading the public?
I love it. Keep it going Murray.
You win most of your games by fading public. Vegas has to make money, so if you fade public you usually make money in most cases.
Yeah basically. If I see a line moving in favor of a favorite, EG Murray St v Auburn, then I go look at the public consensus. If the public is heavy on the favorite (70%+) then I will fade the public.
Thanks bud!
Yes but I'm just not blindly fading the public. I have a certain criteria that needs to be met (or close to being met) before I will pull the trigger.
Did you bet the dayton game Murray?
Alright boys, I have all my 8pm picks locked in. Here they are:
1H So Mississippi +2 -$58/50
So Mississippi +3.5 - $39/35
1H Auburn +2 -$33/30
Auburn +4(B+.5) -$30/25
1H Tenn Chatt +14.5 -$32/30
Tenn Chatt +26.5 -$28/25
1H Western Carolina +9 -$33/30
Western Carolina +16.5 -$28/25
1H Tennessee St +8.5 -$39/35
Tennessee St +15.5 -$33/30
1H SMU +1.5 -$39/35
SMU +3 (B+.5) -$36/30
No I didn't take it. I'm trying to stick to this system for now. But GL to all those who did take them.
Got
Southern miss +4 2x
Auburn +3 2x
Locked in
Got good lines guess book hasn't changed lines yet no 1h available yet tho
I'm leaning on Penn St +12. I see 70% of the public on NC State yet the line has not moved from the opening number.
That's weak. My local usually slacks on CFB lines but he's been good with CBB lines.
Just locked in Penn State, don't feel too good about it though. At least its early so I can find something after it if it loses!
Yeah I'm not sure about Penn State but the good thing is 71% of the public is on NC State. It's weird though. At Bookmaker they have the spread at 11.5 and but sports interaction has it at 12.5 and everyone else has it at 12.
Just looked at the BC game that is starting in 15 minutes and I see some RLM there however the public is only 64% on Baylor which means it doesn't fit my theory. That being said I'm going to take BC 1H only.
Hey, I have a newbie question. How do these sites, that monitor the wagering activity, even know what and how much the action is on a certain side?
Alright boys, I added BC +7.5 1H $29/25.
Unfortunately my site doesn't say where it gets its info from but I imagine they have agreements with one book or multiple books in where they monitor the bets (how many and what sides) for advertisement or something similar? That's my hunch.
I am a total newbie to all the terms although I have done some occasional betting before. Could you please tell me what RLM stands for in your theory, Murray?
BTW I think your method is totally viable and great. Keep posting please!
RLM just means Reverse Line Movement. And don't worry, I'm still a noob myself.
Sorry Murray, but I'm curious as to which of these 8pm games seem to fit your system "the most."
Auburn is one of the best fitting games tonight for our system
Auburn +3 full time?
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