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Alright here is a recap up to this point:
1H Southern U +1 -WIN
Southern U +3.5 -WIN
1H Santa Clara +7.5 -WIN
Santa Clara +12 -Pending
1H Arkansas LR +3.5 -LOSS
1H Nebraska Omaha +7.5 -WIN
Nebraska Omaha +13 -PENDING
Toledo (BB) +14 -PENDING
Wizards +8.5 -PENDING
======================================
Toledo (FB) +16.5 / Under /69.5 -PENDING
Last edited by Murray Rothbard; 11-14-12 at 08:13 PM.
That line opened at 10.5 an was pushed to 12.5 cause I'm seeing 82% on Wyoming so this is the standard line movement Vegas is just trying to even out bets so this is a no play for meOriginally Posted by chunkymunkey
Ark LR hopefully strokes it a little better then they did on the 1H if so they can tighten it up quick opposing team looks like they do t have the fire power to pull away!!
I got some reading and h/w to do see I'll be checking in now and again. Will be more active in a couple hours. GL fella's. BTW, will update if I take anything new.
Okay cool man if I don't catch up with you tonight I'll be back on around 5 pm tommorow
Toledo up 7-0 looking good even tho it's early an Uab looks good to gotta close out the 2h an ARK LR gotta keep fighting an hanging around come boys
Wow UAB falling quick need a little run
Come on blazers!!!
penetrate Uab how do you let a team run away from you like that after u outplayed them in the 1 st half 2-1 on the night not happy
Ark LR loser
2-1-1 so far tonight
Toledo game 7-7
Trust me man im feeling your pain..
Wyoming 2H -7 (tilted) 2 units
i like this thread! but i have a question how much does the line need to move to for this system?
You generally see 1 full point at least but it more then just RLM it depends on public % also
UPDATE:
1H Southern U +1 -WIN
Southern U +3.5 -WIN
1H Santa Clara +7.5 -WIN
Santa Clara +12 -WIN
1H Arkansas LR +3.5 -LOSS
1H Nebraska Omaha +7.5 -WIN
Nebraska Omaha +13 -LOSS
Toledo (BB) +14 -WIN
Wizards +8.5 -PENDING
======================================
Toledo (FB) +16.5 / Under /69.5 -PENDING
5Team Parlay:
Ohio +6.5 -PENDING
Toledo (BB) +15 -WIN
Toledo (FB) +9.5 -PENDING
Santa Clara +11.5 -WIN
Southern U +3 -PENDING
Nebraska Omaha looked ok 1H, barely covered and got blown out 2H. I took that game late because I wasn't really feeling it but it fit the theory (very min LM) so I took it.
My parlay is looking ok but Ohio has me real nervous. Wizards as I suspected choked and are still winless, last time I take them all year. Overall a good night. From the looks of it, this theory seems to work best with college hoops so more than likely I will only apply it to college hoops.
so how does the system work exactly? what % of public and what kind of line movement?
Can't speak for RG3, but it doesn't need to move at all. For example, If I see that the public is like 75% on one team but the line hasn't moved at all I will still take that game. In fact this is exactly what happened with the N. Illinois game. Initially when I took this game the public was heavy on N. Illinois (maybe around 75% don't remember) yet the line stayed at 10.5 where it opened. This LM (or lack thereof) told me that books were very comfortable with their current positions so they just let the public eat up N. Illinois and didn't move the line an inch.
So theoretically, with this system, no LM is required. What is important is looking at what the public is doing. If you have heavy public action on one side with no LM or LM in favor of the team getting all the public action then that should be a red flag and that should be a game you give serious consideration to.
Hope that helps.
Again, LM is not what is of primary importance. What really matters is what the public is doing. That being said, what I look for are games where there is 70%+ action on side. When I see this I will look at the lines and see if the line to the side the public is favoring is moving in the favorites direction. Ideally you want to have 70%+ action on a side before fading the public but the theory has worked with less public support.
Yeah but even if the line doesn't move the odds will not be -110 it will be -102 or -103 etc still asking for up lic to keep betting it.
But if the public is 70%+ on one side and the line doesn't move but the odds drop to -102 or -103 isn't that good for us because we essentially get the bet that we want with the same points plus reduced juice?
In other words, wouldn't taking a bet that opened with 10 pts @ -103 better than taking the same bet with 8 pts -110?
The -102 will be on the other side of the bet we actually pay a little more juice but it's a solid bet as long as the public is over 70%!! Wiz hanging around
Gotcha! And I saw that put I'm not going to get my hopes up.
HOLY PENETRATE! Wizards came back and covered
Guess this theory can work in the NBA too LOL.
the reason im asking is ive seen the line move up to 2.5 pts in favor the dog.... and im trying to figure if its enough line movement... but i see where youre going with the system. this is a great thread! keep it up im very interested
there are a ton of lame threads on this foruma dn you guys are doing something interesting here!
You guys should POST updated records on this thread. I love the angle.
Thanks for the kind words bro I really appreciate that!
I'm not sure if the bold was a typo but whenever the line is moving in favor of the dog when there is heavy public action on the favorite than that is just normal line movement. When there is heavy public action on a side yet the line keeps moving in that sides direction, that is when you pounce.
If you don't mind me asking, what game are you looking at?
1H Southern U +1 -WIN
Southern U +3.5 -WIN
1H Santa Clara +7.5 -WIN
Santa Clara +12 -WIN
1H Arkansas LR +3.5 -LOSS
1H Nebraska Omaha +7.5 -WIN
Nebraska Omaha +13 -LOSS
Toledo (BB) +14 -WIN
Wizards +8.5 -WIN
Record in straight bets for tonight: 7-2
======================================
Toledo (FB) +16.5 / Under /69.5 -PENDING
5Team Parlay:
Ohio +6.5 -PENDING
Toledo (BB) +15 -WIN
Toledo (FB) +9.5 -PENDING
Santa Clara +11.5 -WIN
Southern U +3 -PENDING
Well what can I say? I owe the Wizards an apology. They played a great 2H and ended up covering the spread turning what I thought would be a $33 loss into a $30 win!
On a less brighter note, Ohio screwed me again and Toledo is slowing down. I hope they score on this posession to at least keep me in the game.
Btw, me and RG3 don't always take the same bets so this is why I have done a combined update quite yet but maybe later tonight I will. Thanks for the support guys I greatly appreciate it.
I'll gather the totals with me and RG3 a little later, just gotta finish up some h.w.
nice!
It was a tilt bet after watching UAB let creighton 29-6 run to land right on 17 for a push
Fantastic! Glad to see this theory in action. KEEP WINNING!
take the Creighton Blue Jays v. UAB Blazers game line started out at -15 and moved to -16.5... that to me is normal line movement with all the public being on creighton.
i actually thought about this game for the system then passed on it.
The line opened at 16.5 an went down to 15 by tip off with 71% on creighton!! I get my info off of thespread.com...
2-0 ytd
Tonight
Southern U +3 (won) +2 units
UAB +17 (push)
ARK LR +7 (loss) -2.2 units
1HSanta Clara +7 (w) + 2 units
Wizards +8.5 (w) + 2 units
Nebraska Omaha +13 (L)-2.2
2h Wyoming -7 (W) +2 units
4-2-1 +3.6 units
Pending still
Toledo +10
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