This is my first season betting college basketball so I would not recommend trailing my picks without doing your own research. This is more of a test for me to see if this is a sport that I want to bet consistently. My experience is in betting the NFL and NBA.
That being said, please feel free to follow along and use my logic as just another resource to make your own judgements. Always interested in learning from you guys as well.
First play of the year:
Michigan St. vs KANSAS -2 (-110) Early in the season I am going with the more experienced team. Michigan St. might be starting a freshman at PG as Tice is battling a concussion. Izzo seems concerned that his freshman PG will turn the ball over by relying solely on his skill set that got him through highschool with a breeze. I expect this game to be a bump in the road and a game that Michigan St. can learn from. Also, Michigan St. recently got back from Germany and now is traveling to Atlanta for this game. I will take the more experienced and less jet-lagged team in Kansas.
OVER (138.5) Lehigh vs Pittsburgh (-110)
Lehigh was 29th in the NCAA in scoring last year at over 75 points per game. While it is early, the lowest points scored by either team this year thru 2 games each is 77 by Lehigh against Baylor (Baylor scored 99). Both of these teams are lighting it up early in the year if history is any indication Lehigh will create another high scoring game tonight. I think it goes over 150.
Well my NCAAB betting is not off to an impressive start (0-2). I am determined to stick it out for a full season to see if I can effectively find a way to profit from this sport. Once again, just posting my plays to track them. Don't tail without doing your own research here.
UNDER 160.5 UMass vs NC State (-110) 1x This game could be fast paced as UMASS was 3rd in effective pace last season and NC State figures to be one of the faster teams this season. However, I think this number is awfully high considering this game may be a blow out. I'd have to believe that UMASS will be smart enough to try and slow their pace slightly to try and stay in this one. Also, the pace of these teams may not be as high octane as expected as they have combined to go 0-3 on the OVER so far this season. This one will likely come close but I think NC State does enough defensively to hold UMASS close to 70. I don't see NC State scoring above 90 in this one so I am going to take my chances on the UNDER.
MURRAY ST (-2) vs St. Johns (-110) 1x
St. Johns has looked good so far this season but I think Murray St. is the better team and they have the best player on the floor in Isaiah Canaan. The only concern I see is that St. Johns may have found someone that can seriously protect the paint. Should be a good game but I expect Murray St. to pull this one out.
Now (1-4) on the year but I am going to play out the season to see what I can learn. All of my NCAAB picks are going to be 0.5 unit plays until I get this sport figured out.
11/20 plays:
Evansville at TENNESSEE TECH -1.5 (-110)
Typically would expect a very even game but Evansville superstar, Colt Ryan, will likely be out again with a hip pointer. He is easily the 2nd best player in his conference. Meanwhile, senior guard Jud Dillard is tearing it up early this season for Tennessee Tech. Currently he is averaging 28 points and 10 rebounds per game on over 61% shooting.
WESTERN CAROLINA -4.5 vs Austin Peay (-110)
Western Carolina is the better team and returning more starters. They played the only common opponent these teams have had better (lost by 11 instead of 20). Austin Peay will be without their starting PF due to a passport issue causing him to arrive after the game.
Last edited by AllLogicBets; 11-20-12 at 01:49 AM.
Reason: adding another play
Yikes, staying the course to continue to learn. I don't believe in KOD but I am definitely in fade territory when it comes to NCAAB my first year. Been doing a ton of research trying to learn everything I can to get this on par with my NBA and NFL plays. Despite the 2-7 start here are my plays so far for Wednesday 11/21:
I hope so too ajcobb. I feel really good about today's plays and am adding some more:
MARQUETTE -5 vs USC (-110) .5x
USC looks clumsy and awful. Marquette should win by double-digits. Gardner actually has basketball skill and will use it against the bigs USC has that are trying to learn how to play the game. Also, USC is terrible offensively and Marquette has guys that can fill the bucket consistently.
South Alabama at GEORGIA ST -3.5 (-110) .5x
Two common opponents already early this season for these teams. South Alabama lost to Tennessee St by 11 while Georgia St beat Tennessee St by 2. South Alabama lost to Monmoth by 2 while Georgia St beat Monmoth by 13.
AUBURN +4.5 at Boston College (-110) .5x
Boston College is 1-3 with their only win against a bad Florida International team. Auburn and Boston College share two common opponents already this season and Auburn played both of them better. BC has the home court advantage here but I still like Auburn to cover and possibly win this one outright.
Last edited by AllLogicBets; 11-21-12 at 11:59 AM.
Reason: adding Auburn play
Oklahoma vs GONZAGA -8.5 (-110) 1x
Both teams are returning a ton of starters with Oklahoma bringing back all 5 and the Zags bringing back 4 of 5. Gonzaga has a size advantage and a huge talent advantage IMO. I think they are undervalued being ranked 16th and are a borderline top 5 team.
LOYOLA CHICAGO -4.5 at Northern Illinois (-110) 2x Northern Illinois is the 3rd least experienced team in the country and they play like it. Average as many turnovers as assists and shoot an awful percentage from everywhere. Loyola has a stud senior in Ben Averkamp who is an efficient scorer and solid rebounder. They also have a PG transfer from Iowa that can provide a presence. This game shouldn't be close as Loyola Chicago is better in every aspect.
Last edited by AllLogicBets; 11-24-12 at 12:38 AM.
Reason: making it a 2 unit play
Good luck today, man...nice streak you have going. Not on/against anything you have but Almost took Notre Dame...tough place to play and I think Kentucky is still riding the hype of last seasons (completely different) team.
0-3. Was thinking of tailing, now IDK. I try to have faith, but not when I lose that much money on my first day. I will stick around for awhile and wish you the BOL though, hopefully this turns around.
Hey AllLogic, I'm doing the same thing as well in my thread. I was on IUPUI yesterday too but, was on ND and Florida. BOL to you and your thread and stop by my thread if you want to discuss plays.
Just started my research for today but I will post my plays as I find them:
MIAMI HURRICANES +1.5 at UMass (-110) 2u Miami has shown the ability to contain dynamic guards so far this year and they will have to do the same against UMass. Umass really pushes the pace but struggles to be efficient on offense. Miami's athletic backcourt should be able to keep them in check and Miami has a big advantage with size in the interior. The Canes are coming off of an impressive victory over Michigan State and beat UMass last season. The two main advantages I see in this one are size (rebounding and defending the paint) and efficiency (47% shooting vs 40%). Love Miami here.
USC at NEBRASKA +2.5 (-110) 2u USC just hasn't looked impressive this year. They have a good defense and a lot of size but they simply can't put the ball in the basket. Their size won't be much of an advantage against Nebraska as they have 6'10" and 6'11" guys down low. Nebraska is much more efficient offensively with over a 50% effective field goal percentage versus just 44% for USC. The one advantage USC has is they force more turnovers then Nebraska but the Cornhuskers do a very good job of protecting the rock. I'll take the more consistent team, home court advantage, and the points.
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