1. 12-18-12 09:00 PM #71
    Pweasecova
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    Great pick! Played that on my card as well.
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  2. 12-19-12 07:22 AM #72
    John Ryan
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    They should have won...... but lesson number 528 of handicapping Bible. Never say should of, would have, ought to have, ... it's past result adn time to continue looking forward. I'll take the win always.
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  3. 12-19-12 10:04 AM #73
    John Ryan
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    Play on Montana State (MS)as they take on Sacramento State (SS) in College Hardwood action set to start at 10:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MS will lose this game by five or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. The sim shows a high probability that SS will hit less than 37% from beyond the arc in this game. In past games SS is just 0-7 ATS when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons. Stands to reason that the lower the number, the greater the chance for MS to win this game. The MS offense has played well and rank 68th in the nation averaging 73 PPG and will be matched against a terrible SS defense ranking 286th allowing a whopping 74 PPG. MS defense ranks a dreadful 334th allowing 80 PPG, but have played a vastly more difficult schedule than SS to date. I like teams that are on a learning curve where the program makes a solid choice to embrace a more difficult schedule than simply trying to ‘pad’ their way to a possible conference berth. This ‘seasoning’ against superior opponents nearly always pays dividends when facing teams, who have not yet been fully tested by elite competition. I strongly believe this is the matchup for this game. Take Montana State.
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  4. 12-20-12 02:32 PM #74
    John Ryan
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    UNDER 116 in the Michigan - Eastern Michigan Game. for Thursday December 20, 2012
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  5. 12-21-12 04:07 AM #75
    alexknyc
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    December 19

    Montana State +5 PUSH

    Season: 21-28-1 -9.10 units

    December 20

    Eastern Michigan/Michigan UNDER 116 LOSS

    Season: 21-29-1 -10.20 units
    Last edited by alexknyc; 12-21-12 at 04:12 AM.
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  6. 12-21-12 03:30 PM #76
    John Ryan
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    CS- Northridge + 7 over Utah in College Hoops Friday action. I will make this a DOUBLE Play counting twice in the records win or lose. I really like this game and as option you can play an additional 'small' amount using the money line.
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  7. 12-22-12 07:57 AM #77
    alexknyc
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    December 21

    CS Northridge +7 (2 units) WIN

    Season: 22-29-1 -8.20 units
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  8. 12-23-12 11:07 AM #78
    John Ryan
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    IUIPU +9 over Ball State for Sunday
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  9. 12-23-12 06:16 PM #79
    alexknyc
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    December 23

    IUPUI +9 WIN

    Season: 23-29-1 -7.20 units
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  10. 12-31-12 01:52 PM #80
    John Ryan
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    Happy New Year!

    Play on the UNC-Greensboro as they take on NC State in College Hardwood action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Greensboro will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1997. Play on road dogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and now facing an opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Of course this is a mismatch on paper, but NC State has not done well ATS when facing inferior teams. They sport an imperfect 0-6 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers per game over the last 2 seasons. The line is inflated simply because of the ‘flash stats’ showing how poorly Greensboro has done and that NC State is ranked No. 23 in the nation. It is just far too many points given the situation and that State has no reason to make a fool of their state rival. State has used their bench far more in games like this one as a way to make the overall team stronger as they enter the January conference games that matter for more than this ‘scrimmage’. Take Greensboro to compete well enough to keep this game between 10 and 20 points.
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  11. 12-31-12 07:03 PM #81
    alexknyc
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    December 31

    NC-Greensboro +22.5 WIN

    Season: 24-29-1 -6.20 units
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  12. 01-02-13 04:50 PM #82
    John Ryan
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    10* graded play on the Davidson as they take on Duke set to start at 7:00 PM ET on the College Hardwood. The simulator shows a high probability that Davidson will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Duke may be No. 1 in the nation, but Davidson has returned all five starters and is a significant favorite to win the Southern Conference. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 68-29 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2006. Play against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive wins and is undefeated on the season. This system simply is a reflection of what I call ‘public irrational exuberance’. The line for this game is inflated because Duke is No.1 and undefeated and facing a team that with a 7-5 record appears to have no chance to even stay within 20 points of Duke. When a storied program like Duke gets on a run, there is a steady stream of public backers making the bandwagon all the bigger. This forces the linesmaker to adjust the line to accommodate the anticipation of more bets being placed on Duke with each pass win. This is exactly what helps create the opportunity we have before us tonight in taking Davidson.
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  13. 01-02-13 08:45 PM #83
    alexknyc
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    January 2

    Davidson +12 LOSS

    Season: 24-30-1 -7.30 units
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  14. 01-02-13 08:46 PM #84
    alexknyc
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Ryan View Post
    10* graded play on the Davidson as they take on Duke set to start at 7:00 PM ET on the College Hardwood. The simulator shows a high probability that Davidson will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Duke may be No. 1 in the nation, but Davidson has returned all five starters and is a significant favorite to win the Southern Conference. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 68-29 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2006. Play against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive wins and is undefeated on the season. This system simply is a reflection of what I call ‘public irrational exuberance’. The line for this game is inflated because Duke is No.1 and undefeated and facing a team that with a 7-5 record appears to have no chance to even stay within 20 points of Duke. When a storied program like Duke gets on a run, there is a steady stream of public backers making the bandwagon all the bigger. This forces the linesmaker to adjust the line to accommodate the anticipation of more bets being placed on Duke with each pass win. This is exactly what helps create the opportunity we have before us tonight in taking Davidson.
    You continue to post graded plays when you made it quite clear in post #2 "All plays should be bet with the same amount every time for the entire season."
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  15. 01-08-13 02:19 PM #85
    John Ryan
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    I’d like to take this moment to thank each and every one of you for another successful year. I appreciate the loyal support, especially during the losing streaks. As you already know, I am in the midst of another short team winning streak having won by 30* BCS Championship play on Alabama and also my 30* NFL Wild Card play on Baltimore.

    Play on the Alabama Crimson Tide as they take on No. 10 Missouri in SEC hoops action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ‘Bama will lose this game by fewer than seven points. Alabama certainly doesn’t have the offensive talent that Missouri has displayed, but they do have a very strong defensive presence. The Tide ranks 46th in the nation allowing 60 PPG and 60th posting an 0.743 opponent assists-to-turnover ratio. Missouri is the best rebounding team in the nation averaging 48 RPG, but a lot of that is attributed to their high pace of play. Alabama can slow the tempo with their physical style of play and force Missouri into half court sets and minimize fast break transitions. Sim shows a high probability that Alabama will get between 34 and 39 rebounds. In past games, Alabama is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take the Crimson Tide.
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  16. 01-08-13 02:22 PM #86
    John Ryan
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    I also like Purdue + 8 1/2 -110
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  17. 01-09-13 04:43 AM #87
    alexknyc
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    January 8

    Alabama +9 LOSS
    Purdue +8.5 LOSS

    Season: 24-32-1 -9.50 units
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  18. 01-09-13 04:39 PM #88
    John Ryan
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    FSU + 6 1/2 over Maryland - This is very rare, but i will step and make this a double play. Or you can play a half bet using the money line in addition to the regular bet.. so, if you bet $100 each on these games... then play either a 200 amount or a 150 amount on the line and a 50 amount using the money line.

    BOL to everyone.
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  19. 01-09-13 09:24 PM #89
    alexknyc
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    January 9

    FSU +6.5 (double) WIN

    Season: 25-32-1 -7.50 units
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  20. 01-10-13 11:27 AM #90
    John Ryan
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    I like Samford +14 over College of Charleston
    Cal Poly Slo +1 1/2 over UC-Davis

    La Tech - 8 1/2 over Texas State.
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  21. 01-11-13 04:28 AM #91
    alexknyc
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    January 10

    Samford +14 WIN
    Cal Poly SLO +1.5 LOSS
    La Tech -8.5 WIN

    Season: 27-33-1 -6.60 units
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  22. 01-12-13 10:06 AM #92
    John Ryan
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    Northern Arizona +8 1/2 over Bowling Green 10:35 PM ET.

    Southern Illinois + 2 1/2 over Indiana State

    Alabama - 5 1/2 over Tennessee.
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  23. 01-12-13 10:13 AM #93
    southpaw74
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    Don't sleep on Indiana state. They are tough
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  24. 01-12-13 10:21 AM #94
    alexknyc
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    Northern Arizona is playing Portland State, not Bowling Green.
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  25. 01-12-13 11:28 PM #95
    alexknyc
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    January 12

    Northern Arizona +8.5 WIN
    Southern Illinois +2.5 WIN
    Alabama -5.5 LOSS

    Season: 29-34-1 -5.70 units
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  26. 01-14-13 11:47 AM #96
    John Ryan
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    Play on Elon University as they take on West Carolina set to tip at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ELON will get a key road win tonight. WC is just 7-28 ATS (-23.8 Units) when playing against a team winning between 51% to 60%)= of their games after 15 or more games since 1997. Elon is not a sharp shooting team, but WC has not been successful exploiting those weaknesses in similar teams. WC is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when facing struggling shooting teams making <=42% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Sim shows a high probability that ELON will shoot between 40 and 46% from the field. In past games, they are 8-1 against the money line (+11.7 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take ELON.
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    nj412p82 gave John Ryan 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  27. 01-14-13 09:22 PM #97
    alexknyc
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    January 14

    Elon ML +118 WIN

    Season: 30-34-1 -4.52 units
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  28. 01-15-13 03:58 PM #98
    John Ryan
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    almost all the way back with the best part of the season to go..

    Wisconsin + 10 1/2 over Indiana

    Southern Illinois as a DOUBLE play + 5 1/2 over Bradley
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  29. 01-15-13 10:04 PM #99
    alexknyc
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    January 15

    Wisconsin +10.5 WIN
    S. Illinois +5.5 (double) WIN

    Season: 32-34-1 -1.52 units
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  30. 01-16-13 05:07 PM #100
    John Ryan
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    tonight I have

    Georgia +12 1/ 2 over Missouri
    Temple -4 1/2 over GW
    West Virginia + 9 1/2 over Iowa State
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  31. 01-16-13 05:12 PM #101
    numismatist
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    Good luck John.
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  32. 01-17-13 05:02 AM #102
    alexknyc
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    January 16

    Georgia +12.5 LOSS
    Temple -4.5 LOSS
    West Virginia +9.5 WIN

    Season: 33-36-1 -2.72 units
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  33. 01-17-13 11:47 AM #103
    John Ryan
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    Play on Georgia Tech as they take on ACC rival Duke set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-16 ATS for 74% winners since 2006. Play against home favorites of 10 or more points that are excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) and facing a struggling shooting team making between 40 and 42.5% and in a game involving two good ball handling team committing <=14.5 turnovers per game after 15+ games. GT plays strong team defense and this will create some problems for Duke tonight. In fact, Duke is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=42% opponent shooting after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Duke is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take Georgia Tech + 17 1/2
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  34. 01-17-13 05:12 PM #104
    mmatika
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    What do you think about the Mich-Minn game tonight. I really like Minn to win. What do you think?
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  35. 01-18-13 03:24 PM #105
    John Ryan
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    Quote Originally Posted by mmatika View Post
    What do you think about the Mich-Minn game tonight. I really like Minn to win. What do you think?
    I had a busy night.. I actually had no opinion on this game. I listened to it, though.. Minnesota was battling uphill the entire second half.. even though they lost, it coudl be a positive for them against weaker teams in the Big Ten.
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