1. #1
    UMD-Scientist
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    Maryland +10.5 LOCK - Moneyline +475 ?

    I can't stress this point enough. And although I posses a slight bias as a UMD grad student, I follow UMD basketball on a daily basis and know a good bit of insider info when it comes to Maryland basketball.

    After leading a Terps team with 6+ walkons last year to a 17-15 record, Maryland added Graduate Transfer Logan Aronholt (14+ppg at Albany) and 4 ESPN top 100 Freshman who will each see 15+ minutes tonight guaranteed, especially after 2 of them led the team in scoring and rebounding during last weeks exhibition.

    Kentucky starts 3-4 Freshman and is only 7 deep through their rotation. Maryland starts 0 freshman, with 4 top 100 freshman coming off the bench at 4 different positions. Terps rotation is 10 deep, with the best player on our team - Xavier transfer A-10 rookie selection Dez Wells eligible to play tonight after an emotional favorable ruling coming 48 hours ago when the NCAA ruled him eligible after false sexual assault charges which even a grand judge threw out. For this and other reasons, the Terps will be playing with a heavy chip on their shoulder after being told by the Harrison twins last month that Maryland is not "a place to win" when they picked UK over UMD. This game means a lot more than just a win over the defending National Champs, it means for the first time since their share of 2009-10 ACC championship that the Terps are back and virtually a LOCK for the tournament.

    The Terps Junior pg Howard will harass Ryan Harrow at the point knowing the offense lives and dies within his small frame, not to mention rookie PG Seth Allen who recorded 5 steals in 20 minutes of work during the Terps exibition when he had a team high 17 points. Terps lottery pick 7'1 center Alex Len is 25 pounds heavier this year with a polished jump shot and holds a big advantage over Noel experience and size wise. Sophmore Nick Faust returns for the Terps after finishing the season averaging 14+ppg over his final 10 games, and is more than capable of defending Goodwin / Harrow with another size advantage. UK may get the overall nod in raw talent as the Terps lone senior Padgett has left a lot to be desired, but anyone who has done their HW on this game knows the line should be about UK -5.5 which makes the Maryland moneyline a huge value at 400+.

    Thoughts? Intelligent counter arguments?

  2. #2
    isotopes
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    By posting a lock on SBR you have just jinxed your team,

    I actually still like kentucky, they are going to be super athletic and faster than almost all teams in college bball again this year. While I place my money on Kentucky for a small bet first game, I would gladly lose that money to see a maryland upset. GL and watch out for betting on your own teams, personal biases do interfer with sports betting.

  3. #3
    nyyanks773
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    Nice analysis, I do not know how well this Kentucky team has meshed or how superior "athletically" they actually are ... I suppose we will see, good luck

  4. #4
    TPowell
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    Maryland lost a lot of scoring from last year. Tough call but uk is banged up in the backcourt so 10 may be plenty

  5. #5
    UMD-Scientist
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    Addition by subtraction. Stoglin would not pass, anyone can put up 20+ppg with 18 shots

  6. #6
    UMD-Scientist
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    Also, last years all freshman UK team was the pinnacle of all freshman teams. This one does not compare, and Noel does not have an offensive game (yet). Both teams will be way better come march, and I think UK would win 4 months from now.

  7. #7
    TPowell
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    That's true about stoglin. What about the Mosley kid?

  8. #8
    UMD-Scientist
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    Sean will be missed for his defense, he was the all time leader in scoring in highschool for Baltimore, but just never took shots when he should have. Easily one of the biggest busts offensively all time for the Terps. Look for Allen, Faust, Wells, and Len to burden the scoring this year. Faust will have atleast ten 20+ppg nights.

  9. #9
    2daBank
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    huge that wells can play,,he gonna be big for this team... think taking the points is bout as solid as it gets for 1st gm of ncaa season anyways..

  10. #10
    CappinTerp
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    I'am in for a small taste............................gl

  11. #11
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by UMD-Scientist View Post
    Sean will be missed for his defense, he was the all time leader in scoring in highschool for Baltimore, but just never took shots when he should have. Easily one of the biggest busts offensively all time for the Terps. Look for Allen, Faust, Wells, and Len to burden the scoring this year. Faust will have atleast ten 20+ppg nights.
    Faust was a sharp shooter out of high school but really struggled last year from what i saw

  12. #12
    HoulihansTX
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    GL. Kentucky usually struggles early in the season ATS.

  13. #13
    Semper Fidelis
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    They should definitely be able to cover 14 pts, right? I honestly think they keep it within single digits. College basketball isn't my specialty, but I follow the SEC a lot closer than the other conferences.

  14. #14
    ukcatzfan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by UMD-Scientist View Post
    I can't stress this point enough. And although I posses a slight bias as a UMD grad student, I follow UMD basketball on a daily basis and know a good bit of insider info when it comes to Maryland basketball.

    After leading a Terps team with 6+ walkons last year to a 17-15 record, Maryland added Graduate Transfer Logan Aronholt (14+ppg at Albany) and 4 ESPN top 100 Freshman who will each see 15+ minutes tonight guaranteed, especially after 2 of them led the team in scoring and rebounding during last weeks exhibition.

    Kentucky starts 3-4 Freshman and is only 7 deep through their rotation. Maryland starts 0 freshman, with 4 top 100 freshman coming off the bench at 4 different positions. Terps rotation is 10 deep, with the best player on our team - Xavier transfer A-10 rookie selection Dez Wells eligible to play tonight after an emotional favorable ruling coming 48 hours ago when the NCAA ruled him eligible after false sexual assault charges which even a grand judge threw out. For this and other reasons, the Terps will be playing with a heavy chip on their shoulder after being told by the Harrison twins last month that Maryland is not "a place to win" when they picked UK over UMD. This game means a lot more than just a win over the defending National Champs, it means for the first time since their share of 2009-10 ACC championship that the Terps are back and virtually a LOCK for the tournament.

    The Terps Junior pg Howard will harass Ryan Harrow at the point knowing the offense lives and dies within his small frame, not to mention rookie PG Seth Allen who recorded 5 steals in 20 minutes of work during the Terps exibition when he had a team high 17 points. Terps lottery pick 7'1 center Alex Len is 25 pounds heavier this year with a polished jump shot and holds a big advantage over Noel experience and size wise. Sophmore Nick Faust returns for the Terps after finishing the season averaging 14+ppg over his final 10 games, and is more than capable of defending Goodwin / Harrow with another size advantage. UK may get the overall nod in raw talent as the Terps lone senior Padgett has left a lot to be desired, but anyone who has done their HW on this game knows the line should be about UK -5.5 which makes the Maryland moneyline a huge value at 400+.

    Thoughts? Intelligent counter arguments?
    Come on man not 1 player on marylands team would start for Kentucky. We bring in the best talent every year Kentucky will win by 30.

  15. #15
    Semper Fidelis
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    Good call UMD scientist, we cashed on this one! The way the 1st half ended scared me, but your Terps came ready to play in the 2nd! Nice call bro!

  16. #16
    TPowell
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    my suspicions were right. Nobody on this team can score. If so, they easily win this game

  17. #17
    rm18
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    You think Dez Wells is better than ALex Len?

  18. #18
    UMD-Scientist
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    Last night was the best game of Lens career. He may have looked better than Dez but Dez has much more raw talent. If the Terps had shot 25% from three last night we would have won. Can't believe these fools who thought UK would roll 20+. I nearly called that moneyline.. Atleast well be dancing this year!

  19. #19
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by ukcatzfan33 View Post
    Come on man not 1 player on marylands team would start for Kentucky. We bring in the best talent every year Kentucky will win by 30.
    you were only 27 points off...lmfao

  20. #20
    rm18
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    Looked like 3 players on Maryland would start for Kentucky

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