apparently this Hanner is supposed to be all the new rave. hard to compete with Pomeroy though.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=2426
 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
-
10-30-12 02:44 PM #1
what do you guys think of Dan Hanners NCAAB projections compared to KenPom?
-
10-30-12 05:42 PM #2
this is awful. Missouri and Tenny are fringe top 25 teams at best. Kentucky is way overrated. Miami is WAY too low, as well as Michigan. VCU is way too low.
-
10-30-12 05:44 PM #3
Kenpom says that the teams don't very much year to year.
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...ferent-picture
The logic goes like this: If you could have one thing to predict a team’s offense, what would it be? It turns out last season’s offensive efficiency would be that thing. It does a good job of predicting offense the following season. After that, the previous season’s offensive efficiency is the next best predictor, and after that, last season’s defensive efficiency helps a bit. (Flip the script for the defensive predictors.) Those three things are the foundation of the system.
I'm just not a big believer in these model guys. Kenpom data alone does not win against the Vegas lines and neither will the Hanner data. No doubt for the handicapper that the numbers are a helpful handicapping tool but on their own they do not win.
Honestly I don't see much difference in the two. Looks like the same offense efficiency, defense efficiency type dat that you get with kenpom.
-
10-30-12 05:48 PM #4
It just all depends what people think. I think even though Missouri lost four starters the people they have coming in with the addition of Bowers this year who sat out last year put them well in the top 20.
Originally Posted by TPowell
That's part of the problem with these early season numbers. No one really knows and we all are just guessing.
-
10-30-12 05:57 PM #5
Stanford above Cal is awful. South Florida is drastically underrated, as well as St Johns.
-
10-30-12 05:58 PM #6
Originally Posted by Emily_Haines
They return 3 guys from their team last year and don't bring in THAT MUCH. Unreal how overrated they are
-
10-30-12 06:08 PM #7
They add the best player from Pepperdine Keion Bell
They add Alex Oriakhi from UConn
and they get Laurence Bowers after sitting out last year
They lost some good offensive players Marcus Denmon and Kim English, but they added three players two of which are outstanding players on defense. I don't see how anyone can think this team will not be very good.
-
10-30-12 06:23 PM #8
Originally Posted by Emily_Haines
did you watch Oriakhi play? The guy isn't the same player from 2 years ago. They also lost Ratcliffe and the other Pressley kid. They return TWO guys that played last year... get 1 guy back from injury, add a couple good transfers and people think they'll be as good as they were last year?
-
10-30-12 06:32 PM #9
Extraordinarily useful.
To get multiple takes on the same thing is essential.
Hanner seems to know what he is doing. I think Ken Pom is still and will remain the authority on NCAA basketball, but that doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement or at the very least differing opinions.
-
10-30-12 06:33 PM #10
Stanford will be decent this year - they have some good players. Cal is a big question mark - but their coach is insanely better than Stanfords. Originally Posted by TPowell
-
10-30-12 06:42 PM #11
They lost Kamp and Guthirez (sp) but they still have Crabbe and Cobbs back. I think Solomon will be a big time player for them this year too Originally Posted by ChalkyDog
-
10-30-12 06:45 PM #12
Stanford has a stud in Randle and return a couple more key guys, but a freshman that averaged 14 points a game should be expected to go nuts. They also have a couple freshman who could make the team pretty good, but I'd rather take my chances with a well coached team with a lot of talent coming back Originally Posted by ChalkyDog
-
10-30-12 06:49 PM #13
Crabb could run away with the PAC-POY award. Huge fan of his game. Originally Posted by TPowell
The conference is Arizona and UCLA, and everyone else playing for 3rd.
-
10-30-12 06:52 PM #14
I disagree. I have Cal and UCLA at the top of the conference with Stanford about a point back and Zona a point back of Stanford Originally Posted by ChalkyDog
-
10-30-12 10:50 PM #15
the ncaa denied the kid wells from xavier to play this year, has to sit. thats huge asarizona would have got aroumd 15 ppg from him
-
10-30-12 10:51 PM #16
keion bell is disgustingly good. glad hes gonna get recognized finally Originally Posted by Emily_Haines
-
10-31-12 12:31 AM #17
Arizona? Originally Posted by zoo youk
Lyons is fully cleared to play, is starting at point guard. Just saw the guy tear it up in the Arizona version of midnight-madness.
Maybe it's another kid?
-
10-31-12 12:35 AM #18
Cal and Stanford are going to have trouble finishing ahead of Colorado - who is the only other team even in the possible discussion. Originally Posted by TPowell
UCLA has their best player having extreme issues getting cleared to play. On top of that, who I think to be their best player, their 6'8" "Point Guard" is also not cleared.
Arizona has the biggest front court in the conference. (assuming height - Josh Smith of UCLA is obviously the fattest). All of them are top 10 recruits, and the sophomore is a top 50 recruit that has the California records for career/game blocks and something else - he's most likely coming off the bench. That doesn't even touch on Arizona's best players in Seniors Solomon Hill and Kevin Parrom.
If UCLA doesn't get their guys cleared, especially Shabazz - they're gonna be lucky to get a decent seed in the NIT.
-
10-31-12 01:15 AM #19
Originally Posted by ChalkyDog
obviously I'm including UCLA with everybody healthy and eligible. As far as Arizona, I'm not betting on a bunch of freshman (none in the top 10 in their class) beating a well coached veteran team. The Parrom kid isn't a star player by any stretch. Arizona has Hill and the Johnson kid that are very good players and the transfer in Lyons but who knows what the young bigs are going to do and 2 of the 3 are going to have to start. With Colorado, I don't see what you see. They only return 2 starters and 1 more key reserve from a team that overachieved last year
-
10-31-12 01:46 AM #20
How are you guys not talking about Colorado in any of this I barely read this thread I just see PAC12 being talked about, but Colorado should be in this discussion
-
10-31-12 01:47 AM #21
I don't get the hype. 2 starters back and 1 role player from last year and they are supposed to be better this year? Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder
-
10-31-12 01:52 AM #22
PAC12
#1 Arizona
#2 UCLA
#3 Standford
#4 Colorado
#5 USC
#6 California
#7 Oregon
#8 UTAH
#9 Washington
#10 Washington St
#11Oregon St
#12 Arizona St
those are really sketchy on my part though
-
10-31-12 01:54 AM #23
dramatically, keep digging man CU was one of the teams I actually did my research on this summer. I no you know your college hoops bud its there though. Originally Posted by TPowell
-
10-31-12 01:56 AM #24
Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder
1. Cal
1. UCLA
3. Arizona
4. Stanford
5. Oregon State
6. Washington
7. Washington State
8. Colorado
9. Oregon
10. USC
11. Arizona State
12. Utah
-
10-31-12 01:59 AM #25
Originally Posted by zoo youk
ok now im interested because this guys rankings are off the wall. This im gonna actually have to sit down and organize his numbers because I cant believe im saying this but Louisville is not the #10 team lmao. I dont even like VILLE and I can tell this is already skewed as fuk. Ville is top 4 no matter what.
Eh I can respect Kansas at #4 I suppose if you pushed around a lot of numbers I can see that happening
Im a Duke fan but nope not #7
Tennesee and Pittsburgh are ranked
Minnesota? I mean I guess if you tried really really hard to rank them they could get in there
-
10-31-12 01:59 AM #26
Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder
I see they have a couple top 100 prospects which I somehow missed but they lost their starting PG from last year and the kid replacing him this year is only a sophomore which i don't like. I'm gonna say marginally better than last year at best but more than likely slightly worse
-
10-31-12 02:01 AM #27
Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder
ok now im interested because this guys rankings are off the wall. This im gonna actually have to sit down and organize his numbers because I cant believe im saying this but Louisville is not the #10 team lmao. I dont even like VILLE and I can tell this is already skewed as fuk. Ville is top 4 no matter what.
Eh I can respect Kansas at #4 I suppose if you pushed around a lot of numbers I can see that happening
Im a Duke fan but nope not #7
Tennesee and Pittsburgh are ranked
Minnesota? I mean I guess if you tried really really hard to rank them they could get in there
Minnesota is going to be solid with Mbakwe back. He is a potential first team All American IMO. I have them around a point better than Pitt and a couple better than Tenny
-
10-31-12 02:06 AM #28
our big differences seem to be USC and Oregon State. I think USC will be dramatically better than last year obviously, but I can't quantify that in my power ratings. They have the biggest upgrade from last year than any team I've done and maybe I've sold them short but hard to upgrade a team 10+ points. Oregon State should be better this year, as they return everybody except Robinson, their star last year. Robinson has been a good coach as well
-
10-31-12 03:16 AM #29
My earlier post stated I felt CU is the only other team in the discussion, alongside UCLA and 'Zona. Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder
Cal and Stanford I feel, at this point, are not better than Colorado going forward.
UCLA
ZONA
CU
In any order... if only you could put that in a trifecta box.
USC will be much improved this year. Assuming Kevin O'Neil doesn't kill his players (literally) prior to conference play. I agree with that 100%. USC much improved is still middle of the Road in the PAC. Originally Posted by TPowell
if I were to guess right now.
1/2 Arizona/UCLA
3 Colorado
4/5. Stanford/Cal
6. USC
7. Oregon
8. Washington
9. Oregon St.
10. Washington St.
11/12. Utah/ASULast edited by ChalkyDog; 10-31-12 at 03:20 AM.
-
10-31-12 09:40 AM #30
shit yea. i was thinking about Dez Wells to Maryland. Originally Posted by ChalkyDog
Reply With Quote