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  • HeeluvaGuy
    SBR MVP
    • 02-15-14
    • 3449

    #211
    7:00

    UNC Asheville/Presbyterian o145.5
    Minnesota/Purdue u133.5

    7:30

    Texas St/Little Rock o123.5

    Comment
    • HeeluvaGuy
      SBR MVP
      • 02-15-14
      • 3449

      #212
      8:00
      Lamar/New Orleans o141

      9:00
      SEMO/Austin Peay o143

      Comment
      • Mackballs
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 12-01-16
        • 5810

        #213
        Damn, unreal bad luck with these unders lately going to over time.
        Comment
        • HeeluvaGuy
          SBR MVP
          • 02-15-14
          • 3449

          #214
          Originally posted by Mackballs
          Damn, unreal bad luck with these unders lately going to over time.

          Something like 5% of college basketball games go to OT. Roughly 110% of my unders go to OT.
          Comment
          • HeeluvaGuy
            SBR MVP
            • 02-15-14
            • 3449

            #215
            Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
            1/2

            Noon
            UTEP/FIU u147

            Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
            7:00

            UNC Asheville/Presbyterian o145.5
            Minnesota/Purdue u133.5

            7:30

            Texas St/Little Rock o123.5


            Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
            8:00
            Lamar/New Orleans o141

            9:00
            SEMO/Austin Peay o143

            3-2-1 +.8u
            55-42 +9.53u
            Literally 5 points from a perfect day.
            Comment
            • HeeluvaGuy
              SBR MVP
              • 02-15-14
              • 3449

              #216
              1/3

              7:00
              Manhattan/Canisius o128.5

              Comment
              • BOA12
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-19-12
                • 20622

                #217
                Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                1/3

                7:00
                Manhattan/Canisius o128.5

                Love it and WISCONSIN/OHIO ST Over 124.5 too. BOL HGUY
                Comment
                • HeeluvaGuy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-15-14
                  • 3449

                  #218
                  As we approach 1,000 games since my model has gone live (linked in the first post on this thread), I (with a little help) have looked back to see how certain plays have done.

                  Overall (sides and totals), the model is 988-926 (51.6%). But totals are 519-446 (53.8%). This isn’t surprising because my intent in designing this model was to predict totals, not so much sides.

                  Using a 10+ point differential, totals are 178-128 (58.2%). That’s a pretty significant advantage.

                  Going forward I don’t have immediate plans to change what I’m doing, but I will likely focus more on the games that fit this filter, particularly on days with 100+ games.

                  Hope that helps some of you as you do your own handicapping. I’ll continue these kinds of updates as time permits and circumstances warrant.

                  Comment
                  • doubledime
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 04-22-09
                    • 9751

                    #219
                    Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                    As we approach 1,000 games since my model has gone live (linked in the first post on this thread), I (with a little help) have looked back to see how certain plays have done.

                    Overall (sides and totals), the model is 988-926 (51.6%). But totals are 519-446 (53.8%). This isn’t surprising because my intent in designing this model was to predict totals, not so much sides.

                    Using a 10+ point differential, totals are 178-128 (58.2%). That’s a pretty significant advantage.

                    Going forward I don’t have immediate plans to change what I’m doing, but I will likely focus more on the games that fit this filter, particularly on days with 100+ games.

                    Hope that helps some of you as you do your own handicapping. I’ll continue these kinds of updates as time permits and circumstances warrant.

                    Interesting..........

                    Is what I highlighted, apply to unders and overs, or just overs?
                    Comment
                    • HeeluvaGuy
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-15-14
                      • 3449

                      #220
                      Originally posted by doubledime
                      Interesting..........

                      Is what I highlighted, apply to unders and overs, or just overs?
                      Overs and unders. If I can find some time I’ll see if I can break it down further. But that probably won’t be for a few days.
                      Comment
                      • Joe Sharp
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-01-09
                        • 3011

                        #221
                        Nice work. Interested to see how the rest of the season works out. Good Luck tonight!
                        Comment
                        • Conqueror
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-08-13
                          • 16778

                          #222
                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                          1/3

                          7:00
                          Manhattan/Canisius o128.5

                          Comment
                          • HeeluvaGuy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-15-14
                            • 3449

                            #223
                            Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                            1/3

                            7:00
                            Manhattan/Canisius o128.5

                            1-0 +1u
                            56-42 +10.53u
                            Comment
                            • HeeluvaGuy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-15-14
                              • 3449

                              #224
                              Originally posted by Joe Sharp
                              Nice work. Interested to see how the rest of the season works out. Good Luck tonight!
                              Thanks. I’m curious to see how this does too. Theoretically it should hold up during conference play, but like I’ve said before, we’re doing this in real time, so we’ll need to keep a close eye on any bumps in the road.
                              Comment
                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-15-14
                                • 3449

                                #225
                                1/4

                                Noon
                                Creighton/Butler u134.5

                                2:00
                                Florida State/Louisville u133.5
                                Iowa/Penn St u154

                                3:00
                                Abilene Christian/Lamar o132.5

                                Comment
                                • Hman
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-04-17
                                  • 21429

                                  #226
                                  GL today
                                  Comment
                                  • loveofsports
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 07-11-15
                                    • 199

                                    #227
                                    Question if you don’t mind helluvaguy,

                                    In seems like looking at your spreadsheet and following all games with a total differential of plus or minus ten would yield the best results, is this what you are saying?

                                    Also, some games on your spread sheet seem to have a differential of greater than 10 but aren’t listed on this thread what do you base that on?
                                    Comment
                                    • HeeluvaGuy
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-15-14
                                      • 3449

                                      #228
                                      Originally posted by loveofsports
                                      Question if you don’t mind helluvaguy,

                                      In seems like looking at your spreadsheet and following all games with a total differential of plus or minus ten would yield the best results, is this what you are saying?

                                      Also, some games on your spread sheet seem to have a differential of greater than 10 but aren’t listed on this thread what do you base that on?
                                      1) Yes, the totals with the 10+ differentials have been outperforming games with lower differentials. That's what my post a few posts above is about.

                                      2) The short answer is (a) I look at other things besides just the spreadsheet, and (b) I haven't finished getting through today's games. I expect to post more as soon as I can get through the card. The longer answer is a bit more complicated and detailed, but I've covered a lot of it in threads from past seasons. Basically, I start with the spreadsheet and then look at matchups to see if I agree or disagree with the numbers the model spits out.
                                      Comment
                                      • coach 40/40
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 12-22-17
                                        • 171

                                        #229
                                        So you are putting your opinion into your system ?
                                        Comment
                                        • loveofsports
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 07-11-15
                                          • 199

                                          #230
                                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                          1) Yes, the totals with the 10+ differentials have been outperforming games with lower differentials. That's what my post a few posts above is about.

                                          2) The short answer is (a) I look at other things besides just the spreadsheet, and (b) I haven't finished getting through today's games. I expect to post more as soon as I can get through the card. The longer answer is a bit more complicated and detailed, but I've covered a lot of it in threads from past seasons. Basically, I start with the spreadsheet and then look at matchups to see if I agree or disagree with the numbers the model spits out.
                                          Thank you.
                                          Comment
                                          • HeeluvaGuy
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-15-14
                                            • 3449

                                            #231
                                            Originally posted by coach 40/40
                                            So you are putting your opinion into your system ?
                                            To some extent, yes. I use the model as a tool in handicapping. At the same time, I’m keeping an eye out for ways the model could be used to just identify plays without any additional work. Unfortunately, I have yet to find a model that is that reliable.
                                            Comment
                                            • loveofsports
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 07-11-15
                                              • 199

                                              #232
                                              when you say the games are 58% plus with differential of 10 pts or more are you meaning the model itself or after your opinon on the model?

                                              Thanks !
                                              Comment
                                              • coach 40/40
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 12-22-17
                                                • 171

                                                #233
                                                Good luck your opinion is well noted.
                                                Comment
                                                • HeeluvaGuy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-15-14
                                                  • 3449

                                                  #234
                                                  Originally posted by loveofsports
                                                  when you say the games are 58% plus with differential of 10 pts or more are you meaning the model itself or after your opinon on the model?

                                                  Thanks !
                                                  That’s just the model with no input from me other than as the creator. But today would be 30 plays or so. That’s just too many for me to commit to with an untested model.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • HeeluvaGuy
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-15-14
                                                    • 3449

                                                    #235
                                                    Through the 3:00 games:

                                                    3:00Tennessee Tech/Morehead St o132.5
                                                    Youngstown St/Cleveland St o136

                                                    Comment
                                                    • HeeluvaGuy
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-15-14
                                                      • 3449

                                                      #236
                                                      Through the 6:00 games:

                                                      4:00

                                                      West Virginia/Kansas u141.5

                                                      6:00
                                                      Charleston Southern/Hampton o141
                                                      Boise St/Nevada u152
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-15-14
                                                        • 3449

                                                        #237
                                                        Looks like this is it for the day. Missed the Bama under earlier.

                                                        6:00

                                                        Alabama/Florida u150

                                                        6:30

                                                        Alcorn St/Prairie View o139

                                                        7:00

                                                        Towson/UNC Wilmington o131.5


                                                        Comment
                                                        • HeeluvaGuy
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-15-14
                                                          • 3449

                                                          #238
                                                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                          1/4

                                                          Noon
                                                          Creighton/Butler u134.5

                                                          2:00
                                                          Florida State/Louisville u133.5
                                                          Iowa/Penn St u154

                                                          3:00
                                                          Abilene Christian/Lamar o132.5


                                                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                          Through the 3:00 games:

                                                          3:00Tennessee Tech/Morehead St o132.5
                                                          Youngstown St/Cleveland St o136


                                                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                          Through the 6:00 games:

                                                          4:00

                                                          West Virginia/Kansas u141.5

                                                          6:00
                                                          Charleston Southern/Hampton o141
                                                          Boise St/Nevada u152

                                                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                          Looks like this is it for the day. Missed the Bama under earlier.

                                                          6:00

                                                          Alabama/Florida u150

                                                          6:30

                                                          Alcorn St/Prairie View o139

                                                          7:00

                                                          Towson/UNC Wilmington o131.5


                                                          8-4 +3.6u
                                                          64-46 +14.13u
                                                          Probably won't have tomorrow's games up until the morning. Lots to update after nearly 70% of teams played today.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Mackballs
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 12-01-16
                                                            • 5810

                                                            #239
                                                            Good day heel
                                                            Comment
                                                            • HeeluvaGuy
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-15-14
                                                              • 3449

                                                              #240
                                                              1/5

                                                              1:00

                                                              Manhattan/Niagara 0129

                                                              1:30

                                                              Michigan/Michigan St u143

                                                              2:00

                                                              Marist/St Peter's o118.5


                                                              Comment
                                                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-15-14
                                                                • 3449

                                                                #241
                                                                Yesterday, the totals with a differential of 10 or greater on my model went 18-11. Please keep in mind that those results are based on the closing lines, so if anyone is inclined to play those games, it's best to wait until right before tip to lock it in. GL!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Fabiodog
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 03-17-13
                                                                  • 319

                                                                  #242
                                                                  Nice work
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Mackballs
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 12-01-16
                                                                    • 5810

                                                                    #243
                                                                    Wow if this Manhattan over loses....no points in three minutes down the stretch.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-15-14
                                                                      • 3449

                                                                      #244
                                                                      Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                                      1/5

                                                                      1:00

                                                                      Manhattan/Niagara 0129

                                                                      1:30

                                                                      Michigan/Michigan St u143

                                                                      2:00

                                                                      Marist/St Peter's o118.5


                                                                      0-2-1 -2.2u
                                                                      64-48 +11.93u
                                                                      Pretty bad today
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 02-15-14
                                                                        • 3449

                                                                        #245
                                                                        1/6

                                                                        7:30

                                                                        South Carolina St/Morgan St o145

                                                                        8:30

                                                                        Alcorn St/Texas Southern o146


                                                                        Might have others tomorrow, but went ahead and took these early.

                                                                        Comment
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