1. 03-15-12 11:00 PM #1
    rm18
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    Beating the Closing Line means Nothing

    It is about beating the true line, UNLV -2.5 , WVU +1.5, UConn +1.5
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    iifold gave rm18 70 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  2. 03-15-12 11:02 PM #2
    d2bets
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    It means plenty over the long haul.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: BigDaddy
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  3. 03-15-12 11:02 PM #3
    jjgold
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    Nothing works
    It all sounds good though
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  4. 03-15-12 11:03 PM #4
    Chi_archie
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    add 9,997 more examples and I'll agree it means "nothing"
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  5. 03-15-12 11:04 PM #5
    k13
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    Uconn was never +1.5???

    Just pick winners and stop worrying about spreads.
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  6. 03-15-12 11:05 PM #6
    rm18
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Uconn was never +1.5???

    Just pick winners and stop worrying about spreads.
    ISU opened as the favorite at Betonline and in vegas
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  7. 03-15-12 11:05 PM #7
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Nothing works
    It all sounds good though
    So much for "it's all about having a positive attitude". Also, so much for math.
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  8. 03-15-12 11:06 PM #8
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Uconn was never +1.5???

    Just pick winners and stop worrying about spreads.
    Dubious advice abounds.
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  9. 03-15-12 11:08 PM #9
    HoulihansTX
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    Tournies a tough, just like NBA playoffs. Betting out-of-conference/ In-conference, and tournaments all are different approaches. I have not mastered any of them.
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  10. 03-15-12 11:09 PM #10
    bigugly
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    If you're not beating the line you made you should not be betting the game. Beating the closing line is long term +EV. Get some sleep...
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  11. 03-15-12 11:12 PM #11
    No coincidences
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    My buddy made almost 10 grand today basically blindly betting faves and taking a public dog in VCU.

    It's all a crapshoot.
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  12. 03-15-12 11:14 PM #12
    BernardMadoff
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    Youre right it doesnt mean anything really, been screaming this for years. Has nothing to do with the outcome.
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  13. 03-15-12 11:15 PM #13
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Dubious advice abounds.
    You can't take your +1.5's and I'll take +120
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  14. 03-15-12 11:23 PM #14
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by BernardMadoff View Post
    Youre right it doesnt mean anything really, been screaming this for years. Has nothing to do with the outcome.
    Like RLM, it's a hell of a lot less relevant than it used to be.

    Everyone has access to a lot more information than they used to thanks to the Internet and more specifically these gambling sites. Books have adjusted to that.
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  15. 03-15-12 11:25 PM #15
    steady hustlin
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Nothing works
    It all sounds good though
    Lol, but actually, no kidding.
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  16. 03-15-12 11:26 PM #16
    Bill Dozer
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    Line moves might not win for a month or two in any one league. It's not a crystal ball but it can erase the house edge of the vig. All ya gotta do it pick more winners than loser after that.
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  17. 03-16-12 12:14 AM #17
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    You can't take your +1.5's and I'll take +120
    No, looks like I'd take +120 there. But I'm still going to ""worry about spreads".
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  18. 03-16-12 12:18 AM #18
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    My buddy made almost 10 grand today basically blindly betting faves and taking a public dog in VCU.

    It's all a crapshoot.
    Yeah, I didn't research it but I'm pretty sure a ton of people were probably on VCU. Filling out my bracket I was thinking everyone would be taking VCU not knowing how good WSU was.

    I'm pissed because I had WSU going to the Sweet 16 but in my mind I thought VCU would be tougher than the second round game against Indiana. In other words, I felt like the winner of VCU/WSU would be in the Sweet 16.

    Same with New Mexico/LBSU.

    I wish they would have given these teams different matchups.
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  19. 03-16-12 12:28 AM #19
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    Yeah, I didn't research it but I'm pretty sure a ton of people were probably on VCU. Filling out my bracket I was thinking everyone would be taking VCU not knowing how good WSU was.

    I'm pissed because I had WSU going to the Sweet 16 but in my mind I thought VCU would be tougher than the second round game against Indiana. In other words, I felt like the winner of VCU/WSU would be in the Sweet 16.

    Same with New Mexico/LBSU.

    I wish they would have given these teams different matchups.
    Agree.

    Freakin' Stutz choked.

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  20. 03-16-12 12:50 AM #20
    BigDofBA
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    Also, you're clueless if you think beating the closer doesnt matter.

    You've never lost by 1 or half a point?

    Happens a lot over time.
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  21. 03-16-12 12:53 AM #21
    BernardMadoff
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    It matters, but one also needs to know which way the line is going to move at all those times too.
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  22. 03-16-12 01:42 AM #22
    TPowell
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    Eventually it matters and even a shitty capper will profit. Eventually could be 10k picks tho
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  23. 03-16-12 01:56 AM #23
    PickWinnerAllDay
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    So what is the biggest public play tomorrow? NC State or Memphis?
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  24. 03-16-12 02:34 AM #24
    MoneyLineDawg
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    I can't even tell you the last time one of my plays didn't cover because I didn't beat the closer.....Overrated

    The only true ways to make good money in this thing (Besides the 1% grinding sharps) is to hit your big spot bets more often than not (Which is absolutely possible), and to get lucky on a few longshot parlays......Other than that, ride out your hot streaks (Get aggressive and increase bet sizes) and slow down when you're cold.......

    You keep flat betting and vig will kill you over time, but you won't ever lose that much either if that's what you're concerned about
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  25. 03-16-12 02:43 AM #25
    SteveRyan
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    Lets not disregard the basics here.

    Beating the closing line is always better than not beating the closing line.
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  26. 03-16-12 02:49 AM #26
    19th Hole
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dozer View Post
    Line moves might not win for a month or two in any one league. It's not a crystal ball but it can erase the house edge of the vig. All ya gotta do it pick more winners than loser after that.
    Exactly...Simple...Gotta pick the winning side.
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  27. 03-16-12 12:26 PM #27
    rm18
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    Getting the best line matters but you can get a great line and still have a -EV bet. Michigan St. -16 was the opener great # but bad bet they should only be abut -12 against LIU
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  28. 03-16-12 02:21 PM #28
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
    Getting the best line matters but you can get a great line and still have a -EV bet. Michigan St. -16 was the opener great # but bad bet they should only be abut -12 against LIU
    Couldn't agree more. LIU at +20 is a joke. Ridiculously high.

    That's what is hard lately about the numbers -- Marquette at -5 or -6 vs. BYU? Murray State opened at -1.5? Who is setting these lines?
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