1. 03-12-12 11:15 AM #1
    Owls
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    First take on NCAA Opening Lines: 3 games I really like

    My overall assessment of the NCAA opening lines is disappointing. Vegas has sharpened up their act over past years with the extensive use of computer ratings to determine the line. I only see 3 games out of 36 which I really like. And 3 games which are ok, but only worthy of a small bet.

    Big Bet games:

    Harvard +6: Their defense will make getting 6 points feel like getting 10. I see them staying right with Vanderbilt and could pull off the upset here.

    Virginia +3.5: I like the matchup here, Florida shoots a lot of 3s and Virginia plays great perimeter defense.

    Purdue -2: Purdue is weak against teams with a strong post presence. Against every other type of team, they are extremely strong. Unfortunately for them, they had to deal with 3 strong teams with great inside games in Ohio St, Indiana, and Mich St in conference. Now they face a St. Mary's team which doesn't have that great inside threat, and Purdue is the better 3 point shooting team and more athletic.


    Small Bet games:

    Iowa St. +2.5 : I really like how Iowa State matches up with UConn, with their 3 point shooting ability and ability to take care of the basketball.

    Wisconsin -9: They blow out inferior teams, and Montana is clearly inferior. Great half court team.

    NC State -2: More athletic than San Diego St and well coached. Was really impressed in their game with UNC on Saturday.
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  2. 03-12-12 12:02 PM #2
    slambam
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    I like NC State also. Other favorites are with Creighton, Cincy, and Notre Dame. I think a lot of people here like UNLV to make a run, but I like the value a hot Colorado team has right now too.
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  3. 03-12-12 12:13 PM #3
    tarheelfan72
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    NC State as an 11 seed fav is a good bet. They are peaking at the right time. They have some elite talent on that team esp. Leslie who was #11 player in 2010 class with only guys like Barnes, Sullinger, Knight ahead of him. Finally got his head out of his ass and stopped being a prima donna, now playing team ball and really hustling. NC State is legit, their main problem is they got NO bench so when they get in foul trouble there is a MAJOR drop off in talent. Starters can run with just about anyone.

    The Wisconsin line scares me a bit with their pace and this being a tourney game, that's a lot of points.
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  4. 03-12-12 12:15 PM #4
    meader99
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    Montana hasn't lost a game since mid December. Winning breeds winning and it aint like UW is going to score a ton of points.
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  5. 03-12-12 01:46 PM #5
    thetrinity
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    agree with u owl that these lines r way sharper then 5-10 years ago. you would have seen belmont getting 7 5 years ago and 9 or 10 if you go back 10 years.
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  6. 03-12-12 01:52 PM #6
    mynameismud
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    belmont is a great team but ill take georgetown all day. ill either buy the hook to make it -3 or parlay the -170 ML
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  7. 03-12-12 02:12 PM #7
    jbess
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    Can wiscon win straight up? just testing a few things for a small teaser
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  8. 03-12-12 02:38 PM #8
    jjesco425
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    lehigh +12 even money @ pinney .... lehigh can keep this close and dont think duke will have kelley back... wanna see this mccollum kid play numbers suggest a jimmer type of player
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  9. 03-12-12 03:10 PM #9
    PickWinnerAllDay
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    That belmont line isn't sharp... Georgetown is going to win by 10.
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  10. 03-12-12 05:24 PM #10
    krk1030
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    Love Harvard, they should win outright.
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  11. 03-12-12 08:17 PM #11
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by krk1030 View Post
    Love Harvard, they should win outright.
    Enought with the jokes. This is a serious thread! LOL
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  12. 03-12-12 08:33 PM #12
    Bcatswin
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    Im not sure i think Belmont can beat them outright.
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  13. 03-12-12 08:33 PM #13
    PickWinnerAllDay
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    I guess one thing to consider is that Big East teams were god awful in the tournament last year besides Uconn and the league is considered weaker this year than last.
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  14. 03-12-12 08:42 PM #14
    james4512
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    belmont lost by 4 @ duke neutral court vs a team that isnt as good as duke belmont all day
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  15. 03-12-12 08:49 PM #15
    PickWinnerAllDay
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    Quote Originally Posted by james4512 View Post
    belmont lost by 4 @ duke neutral court vs a team that isnt as good as duke belmont all day
    Duke is vastly overrated, but if we're going to take individual games, Belmont has a lot of bad losses on their slate.
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  16. 03-12-12 10:01 PM #16
    Owls
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    Unlike regular season games, the NCAA tournament games always have a ton of public money so I will wait to bet my picks because most of them are not public plays. I already see the lines getting more favorable for Harvard and Purdue.
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  17. 03-12-12 10:06 PM #17
    Owls
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjesco425 View Post
    lehigh +12 even money @ pinney .... lehigh can keep this close and dont think duke will have kelley back... wanna see this mccollum kid play numbers suggest a jimmer type of player
    Duke/Lehigh is another one that I'm looking at. This Duke team just doesn't have the defense to blow teams away like they did in the past. But Coack K likes running up the score against unathletic teams.
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