[BrianLaverty]

Hi Guys

Conference tourneys start in exactly 2 days and can't be happier. I'm completely psyched, and this is where I traditionally clean up. All bets are between 1 and 5 units.

5Dimes has put up futures for the first two tourneys. I've already hit some lines, and will post all my picks in this thread as I go along.


Liberty to win Big South +2000 (0.5 units)- When looking for a surprise winner, you want to find teams that are rolling going into the tournament- Liberty has underachieved all year, but finally got it together to end the year- They finished the conference 9-3 after starting 0-6. Jesse Sanders is the best PG in the league and he has really stepped it up at the end of his senior year. They have a tough matchup vs. UNC-Asheville in the semis if they make it that far, but this team has all the makings to make a run at the title as the 5 seed.

UNC-Asheville is the big favorite as -200 and I really don't see any value in them. They are the best team, but I put it at around even money to win it. The top seeds did not win the last two years, and I just don't see them as unbeatable at all.


Detroit to win Horizon +800 (1 Unit)- Detroit was the preseason favorites and dealt with tons of problems all year, but are smoking hot coming into the tournament, winning 10 out of there last 13 conference games. They are the best team, and I will take them over the two favorites who were stumbling at the end of the year. I would put more then 1 unit, but they have a tough draw- Looking at potentially Butler, Valparaiso and Cleveland State.

Cleveland and Valparaiso both played baddd down the stretch. Cleveland State played no defense at the end of the year, and finished winning just 2 out of the final 7, and they lost twice to Valpo. Valpo struggled in 4 of there last 5 games and quite frankly, don't trust them. Butler is Butler... but they are very mediocre this year, and there's no runs in them this year.



Will have more futures and more picks as the week continues.

[BrianLaverty]

Gardner Webb +6 (3 Units)

Gardner Webb and High Point played twice this year, and they couldn't have been more even in the two games. In the 4 halves, each one had a one point differential. Both games went into overtime and both teams are pretty damn even. I don't see High Point winning by 7+

[BrianLaverty]

0-1, -3.30 Units

Gardner Webb was close for the first 37 minutes, but ran out of gas.

Youngstown State -2.5 (3 Units)-

Green Bay is a horrible road team.... don't think anything changes tonight. The Penguins won by 30 earlier in the year at home. Green Bay won 3 out of there last 4 road games after starting off 0-11, but those 3 wins were against the 3 worst teams in the conference: Loyola Chicago, Ill-Chicago, and Wright State. I'll take the Penguins at home in this situation against a team who still hasn't beaten a good team on the road all year.

Don't like any of the other 3 games...

GL Everyone.

[BrianLaverty]

Adding...


Belmont to Win Atlantic Sun -160 (Risking 6.4 Units to win 4)

Surprised how short this line is.... I know its at Mercer, but Belmont is the class of this tournament and they won't be getting in at-large bid so they are all in here. The tournament IS at 2nd place Mercer as it has the last 3 years, otherwise Belmont would be around -400 or so. Really don't like the way Mercer played down the stretch, with 3 losses in there last 4 including a 1-point home loss to Belmont last weekend. Belmont on the other hand won the last 11 games. Belmont is the much better team and should definitely prevail.


Tennessee State to win Ohio Valley Conference +600 (2 Units)

Might put more on this tomorrow. Tournament is in Nashville, so that gives TSU a big advantage to start with. They finished the year going 9-1, with the only loss being a blowout loss to Murray State in a huge revenge game. Should all come down to a rematch between MSU and TSU, and I expect TSU to pull the upset because they will need it more. Murray State is already a lock and this would give the OVC a rare chance for two bids. While I don't believe in fixes being that prevalent, I could definitely see a scenario where TSU pulls the upset. We've seen it a million times before in these conference tourneys.... Think its a much better chance then 6 to 1.

[tatddy]

0-1, -3.30 Units

Gardner Webb was close for the first 37 minutes, but ran out of gas.

Youngstown State -2 (3 Units)-

Green Bay is a horrible road team.... don't think anything changes tonight. The Penguins won by 30 earlier in the year at home. Green Bay won 3 out of there last 4 road games after starting off 0-11, but those 3 wins were against the 3 worst teams in the conference: Loyola Chicago, Ill-Chicago, and Wright State. I'll take the Penguins at home in this situation against a team who still hasn't beaten a good team on the road all year.

Don't like any of the other 3 games...

GL Everyone.

Line opened at -3.5 and moved to -3. Where are you getting -2?

[No coincidences]

Like the Tennessee State pick.

I lean Youngstown tonight as well. Good luck.

[HoulihansTX]

Murray St is a obvious pick, but I can not see them losing. They have been in this position B4.

[BrianLaverty]

Line opened at -3.5 and moved to -3. Where are you getting -2?

I got it at -2.5 this morning.... screwed up when posting the line and fixed it.

And it was -2.5 at both sites I play at (Heritage and 5Dimes) all morning...

[BrianLaverty]

Murray St is a obvious pick, but I can not see them losing. They have been in this position B4.

Actually they've never been in THIS position before.... not needing to win the tourney to get in. They've never been close to an at-large before, and I expect them to not have as much determination to get in at TSU would in the finals.

And last year, they were also 1st in the OVC regular season and got eliminated in the semis by Tenn. Tech. And as much as everyone thinks they've dominated through the years, they have won just 1 OVC Championship in the last 5 years...


This is a great money making situation for the Ohio Valley Conference to get an extremely rare two bids. Its a golden oppurtunity and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Murray State laid down for one of the two games.

[BrianLaverty]

Coastal Carolina -7 (4 Units) (being played on Wednesday)

CCU is just a bad overall matchup for VMI. VMI likes to fly up and down the court, and the problem with that is that Coastal Carolina has the athletes to outrebound and straight up dominate VMI. They have dominated the series over the last couple of years, winning each of the last 8 meetings by 8 points or more- including twice this year, by 9 and 17. The biggest problem for VMI will be in the rebounding margin... Coastal Carolina outrebounded VMI 41-34 and 48-26 in the two meetings. While I expect VMI to try to slow down the game like they traditionally do in conference tourneys, I don't see them overcoming the dominance inside vs. Coastal Carolina. CCU should roll

[BrianLaverty]

Record: 1-1, -0.30 Units
Pending Futures:
- Detroit to win Horizon +800 (1 Unit)
- Liberty to win Big South +2000 (0.50 Units)
- Tennessee State to win OVC +600 (2 Units)
- Belmont to win Atlantic Sun -160 (4 Units)

Adding:

Navy +19.5 (2 Units)

Just like the way Navy has managed to stay in games despite being far less talented. They are a 3-win team, but they have been blown out by 20 or more just twice in there last 17 games, and lost by 15 and 9 in the two games vs. Bucknell this year. Bucknell also is not a team that usually blows teams out.... Out of there 14 conference wins, just one of them was over 16 points. With Navy's tendency to stay in games, and Bucknell's lack of blowouts, I think Navy can stay within 19.


Liberty +5 (4 Units)


As you can tell from my future bet, I really like Liberty to make a run in the Big South Championships. They finally found themselves as a team at the end of the year after underachieving for the first 3/4 of the season. Started off 0-6 in the Big South, and finished 9-3 last 12, including winning there last 5 league games. They had there best game of the year last Thursday vs. CCU, and are really peaking at the right time. Charleston Southern has been solid all year, but they did lose 4 of there last 7 league games. As for the actual matchup, the two teams are pretty even... there is nothing that shows to me that Charleston Southern is 5 points better then Liberty on a neutral court. But since we are getting into March Madness, experience really starts to be key.... Liberty's two best players (Minaya and Sanders) are both sophmores, while 2 of Charleston Southern's 3 best players are freshmen. This could be huge in the last few minutes of a close game. I really like Liberty to advance into the semis, but I'll take the points for more.

Gonna add more on the ML when it becomes available.