Originally Posted by
MeatWad
Miss St is getting this elevated number due to their recent form, 3 game losing streak, and Kentucky's continued dominant form. Two weeks ago this spread would have been about half what it is tonight.
Miss St. was 13-2 to start the season, but in 12 str8 SEC games since, they are 6-6. They won their first 5 conference home games, then lost their last one to Georgia 70-68, their second home loss of the season. Clearly they have a distinct homecourt edge at the Hump. I expect them to come out blazing, but it won't be enough against the best team in the country. I do see some value in +9 as I look for Miss St to go all out in the national spotlight on their homecourt with their fans sporting "white out" attire in a place where they seldom lose.
In interviews Miss St doesn't sound like a team throwing in the towel, despite losing 2 big leads in their last 3 games. They have a solid senior backcourt prescence in Bost and 6'8" fr guard Hood, and a SEC double-double leader in Moultrie. Definitely enough talent to utilize their homecourt edge and keep the game close enough at the end. That said, I seldom if ever bet against a team playing as well as UK, the best team in the country. UK was overvalued early in the season but as of late they are playing up to their potential. 4 out of 6 of their SEC road wins were by double digits, although I think their game tonight resembles their 2 close road wins at Vandy and at Tenn, two above average SEC teams with a significant home court edge/presecence. I will likely take Miss St for a small play here at +9.